The global cycle and central
bank policy point to higher interest rates ahead.
Not exact matches
The central
bank's
policy committee voted unanimously on Dec. 14 to raise its benchmark interest rate a quarter
point to 0.5 %.
Before Yellen addressed the Economic Club of Washington, her counterparts in Ottawa released their latest
policy statement, in which Canada's central
bank said it was keeping its benchmark interest rate at 0.5 %, a quarter -
point shy of the lowest level ever.
«Central
banks are contemplating ever - more - exotic
policy options,» says TD's Cooper,
pointing to the growing interest in «helicopter money.»
«We do not see an imminent turning
point in commodity prices and thus forecast further negative repercussions on the Canadian economy next year,» Sebastien Lavoie, assistant chief economist at Laurentian
Bank Securities in Montreal, said in an analysis of the
Bank of Canada's latest
policy statement.
Gross domestic product contracted at an annual rate of 0.5 % in the second quarter and 0.8 % in the first, which is exactly what the
Bank of Canada predicted in July when it dropped its
policy rate by a quarter
point.
Australian shares were down 0.6 % after the Reserve
Bank of Australia's
policy board decided to cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis
points to an all - time low of 1.50 %, as expected.
Yellen turned the question around: «When you say that central
banks kill them, the usual reason that that has been true, when that has been true, is that central
banks have been too late to tighten
policy and they have allowed inflation to get out of control and at that
point they have had to tighten
policy very abruptly and very substantially and it's caused a downturn.»
The hearing is set for September 20, and according to Isaac Boltansky, director of
policy research at Compass
Point, it will likely evoke memories of the 2013 London Whale hearing, where the
bank's top brass were dragged up in front of lawmakers.
In
point of fact, QE is a tool that the
Bank of Canada views as a legitimate instrument of monetary
policy if the need should arise.
As the economy continues its rocky recovery,
policy - makers are quick to
point out that core inflation, the key measure upon which the
Bank of Canada depends to set monetary
policy and stave off destabilizing devaluations of currency, remains in check.
Stephen Tapp, a former
Bank of Canada economist who now is research director at the Institute for Research on Public
Policy, reckons the reversal will cost 0.2 percentage
points of gross domestic product annually over the longer term.
He
pointed out that global economic activity is increasing, a tax cut could boost growth and the European Central
Bank is implementing «absurd» stimulus
policies in the euro zone.
The U.S. central
bank's monetary -
policy committee raised benchmark borrowing costs by a quarter percentage
point to a range of 1.5 % to 1.75 %, in Jerome Powell's first meeting as Fed chairman.
If central
banks can not create easy money and loose credit conditions then what is the
point of central
banks engaging in their
policies?
While the government's
policies have remained opaque, officials with the Russian Central
Bank have talked about blocking the access of people inside the country to virtual currency websites, and Mr. Putin has
pointed out the many potential illegal uses of the technology.
First, Dean Baker
points to this great Bloomberg article by former Fed regional
bank pres Narayana Kocherlakota (NK) on how, since black unemployment typical runs 2x the overall rate, Fed
policy is especially consequential for them (and other minorities).
His
point is that even as the
Bank of Japan has lowered its
policy -LSB-...]
Separately, the
Bank of Japan (BoJ), which also will be meeting the same days as the Fed (Sept. 20 — 21), may be on the verge of abandoning its negative interest rate
policy at some
point — but likely not soon.
The background report from the
Bank of Canada is pretty self - congratulatory, though it does somewhat revise the current regime to underline the
point that monetary
policy also -LSB-...]
Case in
point — after the European Central
Bank (ECB)
policy meeting this summer that quashed market expectations of an imminent ECB shift to normalize
policy.
To shore up its currency, the Russian central
bank increased
policy rates by 150 basis
points on 31 October.
Were the Fed to attempt to hike short - term interest rates another 25 basis
points, it would be moving against the tide of global central
bank policies.
But Taleb
pointed us to the years of easy monetary
policy brought on by central
banks since the financial crisis.
MNI Fixed Income Bullet
Points focuses on trading flows, shifting market sentiment and expectations, news driving the market, economic data, monetary and fiscal
policy, key market levels, central
bank market activity, and global capital flows.
The other
point is ultra-easy monetary
policy, with the
Bank of Japan doing «stupid things» like negative interest rates and QE this probably serves to help keep businesses on life support; delaying the inevitable.
US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen gave the clearest indication yet that the central
bank is likely to start raising interest rates later this year when she said in a speech on July 10 that she expected it would be «appropriate at some
point later this year to take the first step to raise the federal funds rate and thus begin normalizing monetary
policy.»
The
Bank of Canada has cut its
policy rate by a cumulative 75 basis
points so far this year (in three moves) to 2 per cent, against a background of weak GDP growth and subdued inflation.
In order to support domestic demand, the
Bank of Korea cut its
policy rate by a further 25 basis
points in November, to 3.25 per cent.
The Swedish central
bank has increased
policy rates by 85 basis
points to 3.75 per cent, while the Swiss authorities have increased their target band by 175 basis
points to between 3 and 4 per cent.
In contrast, the
Bank of England increased its repo rate by 25 basis
points in February to 4 per cent, following a similar move in November, while the Reserve
Bank of New Zealand has increased its
policy rate by 50 basis
points so far this year (in two steps) to 5.5 per cent.
Wall Street is arbitraging the Fed's monetary
policy by borrowing overnight money at 10 basis
points and investing it in 10 - year treasuries at a yield of 200 basis
points, capturing the profit and laughing all the way to the
bank.
The
Bank of England confused markets as they voted 7 - 2 to sustain the current interest rate
policy, even though consensus assumed a 25 basis
point increase.
Without going into the extensive limitations of such models or the longer - term implications for raising interest rates, we would just highlight that the impact of a 100 basis
point move in
policy rates in both central
bank models are surprisingly similar in the short - term.
The continued contraction of the credit impulse as well as central
bank policy normalisation, inflation expectations, fiscal deficit expansions, cross-asset correlations, and a lack of political reforms all
point to a slowdown sometime in 2018.
From this vantage
point, stability is really just a way of describing or qualifying «expectations,» which are a formal part of the way the
Bank thinks about monetary
policy and the transmission mechanism (i.e., how a change in the target for the overnight rate has an effect on the real economy).
As of late, the heads of two of the largest central
banks in the world (the Fed and the ECB) have
pointed to the fact that it is up to the politicians to enact
policy to spur economic growth.
In terms, I think of inflation and bond markets, it took six, seven, eight, maybe 10 years of high inflation in the 1970s before you had Paul Volcker brought in to say «enough is enough,» and then again whether it's led by American monetary
policy but similar moves in Europe, obviously in the UK, a significant tightening of monetary
policy because people got fed up with inflation and I don't think that we are kind of yet at the
point where real wages have been suppressed so much by that irritation that inflation is always running ahead, life is becoming more expensive, so we need the central
bank radically to change their
policy.
Other central
banks to ease included the
Bank of Canada which cut its
policy rate by 25 basis
points in July to 3.0 per cent, and the Reserve
Bank of New Zealand, which cut a further 25 basis
points to 5.00 per cent in July, after similar - sized cuts in April and June.
In Europe, the European Central
Bank reduced its official interest rate in June by 50 basis
points to 2 per cent; the
Bank of England also lowered its
policy rate in July by 25 basis
points to 3 1/2 per cent; and official interest rates in Sweden declined by 75 basis
points to 2 3/4 per cent in moves of 50 and 25 basis
points in June and July.
They
point to the
banking crisis,
policy uncertainty, or excessive regulation as equally or even more important.
Citing emerging domestic price pressures and stronger - than - expected household spending and housing market activity, the Reserve
Bank of New Zealand raised its
policy rate by 1/4 of a percentage
point in January to 5 1/4 per cent.
the
Bank of England increased its
policy rate by 25 basis
points to 3.75 per cent in November.
The
Bank raised
policy rates by a further 25 basis
points in March to 6 3/4 per cent, citing a stronger outlook for activity in the near term and associated pressures on inflation.
He
pointed to the $ 40 billion worth of mortgage - backed securities that the U.S. Fed is buying each month, a
policy designed to sop up many of the toxic subprime lending still weighing down the balance sheets of the nation's
banks, but that Fisher warned is helping to fuel low mortgage rates.
Yields on 90 - day
bank bills had risen by around 25 basis
points ahead of the change in the target and rose further after, indicating expectations of some further tightening of
policy in the months ahead (Graph 51).
Since March 2009, the S&P 500 Index has had a total return of approximately 250 %, driven by two primary factors: First, super-easy global monetary
policy in the wake of the
banking crisis, which drove down returns on safe assets to the
point where risky assets became a much more compelling proposition than is typical.
Amid signs of stronger economic growth and a pick - up in inflation, as well as easier financial conditions, the Federal Open Market Committee, the
policy arm of the U.S. central
bank, is expected to raise its key federal funds rate in March by a quarter percentage
point to a target range of 0.75 % to 1.00 %, says Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.
The
Bank of England increased its
policy rate by 1/4 of a percentage
point in November to 3 3/4 per cent, noting the better global outlook and the unexpected strength of consumer spending and the housing market.
But what's perhaps more noteworthy is the dovish shift in the
Bank's tone since their last announcement in September (where they raised rates by 25 basis
points) and its more cautious stance on future
policy rate adjustments.