Sentences with phrase «based climate model projections»

In the project, FMI compiles and evaluates RCP - based climate model projections for Finland, constructs daily gridded datasets of a number of climatic variables, assesses climate change impacts on human health, provides guidance to end - users and exports up - to - date information to Climateguide.fi.

Not exact matches

These high - resolution projections, based on global climate models, predict when and where annual coral bleaching will occur.

They used this data compilation to evaluate the quality of their regional atmospheric climate model, based on global climate projections that included several scenarios of anticipated climate change.

This critical question is addressed using simulations from climate models based on projections of future emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols.

In summary the projections of the IPCC — Met office models and all the impact studies (especially the Stern report) which derive from them are based on specifically structurally flawed and inherently useless models.They deserve no place in any serious discussion of future climate trends and represent an enormous waste of time and money.As a basis for public policy their forecasts are grossly in error and therefore worse than useless.For further discussion and an estimate of the coming cooling see http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com

A recent paper by climate skeptic politician Viscount Christopher Monckton claimed scientists» model - based projections of climate change are overstated.

An overall objective, aside from the desire to assess alternative means to combine human social system models with climate models, is to provide a rational basis to determine whether human risk perception and associated changes in behaviors can significantly affect climate projections.

The projections are based on climate models from the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report.

The climate projections show on this map are based on Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 (van Vuuren et al., 2012) experiments run by global climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) exercise (Taylor et al., 2012).

Your statement on mistaken assumption # 5 about climate model projections being theoretically based rather than empirically based is well made.

As the basis for the chapter to follow, we provide summaries of the scaled - down global climate model projections for each of these climate variables below.

Projections based on 29 climate models suggest that the number of high wildfire potential days each year could increase by nearly 50 percent by 2050 if greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated.

The analysis of processes contributing to climate feedbacks in models and recent studies based on large ensembles of models suggest that in the future it may be possible to use observations to narrow the current spread in model projections of climate change.

Climate change projections were based on an ensemble of four General Circulation Models (UKMO HadCM3, MPIM ECHAM5, CSIRO MK3.5 and GFDL CM2.1), downscaled to 10 minutes [32], considering three emissions scenarios (B2, A1B and A2) for 1975 (mean 1961 — 1990), 2050 (mean 2041 — 2060) and 2090 (mean 2081 — 2100).

The last two lessons focus on model - based climate change projections in relation to the possible fates of different regional species of vegetation.

Your statement on mistaken assumption # 5 about climate model projections being theoretically based rather than empirically based is well made.

It describes some of the recent drought conditions, compares observed drought and modeled drought conditions from 1950 (observed was roughly 20 %) to 2000 (observed was roughly 30 %), then makes projections based upon climate models and the business as usual SRES A2 scenario where roughly 50 % of the world's land will be experiencing drought by 2100 at any given time.

This kind of insufficient scientific understanding is not a good basis for high confidence in the climate model simulations and projections.

The study, published Thursday in the journal Science Advances, is based on projections from several climate models, including one sponsored by NASA.

Thus Figure 1 depicts the IPCC TAR Scenario A2 temperature projection based on a simple climate model which was tuned to the seven Atmosphere - Ocean General Circulation Models (AOCGMs).

Despite this, they build climate models and make definitive projections that are the basis of devastating and completely unnecessary policies.

A paper published in Nature Climate Change, Frame and Stone (2012), sought to evaluate the FAR temperature projection accuracy by using a simple climate model to simulate the warming from 1990 through 2010 based on observed GHG and other global heat imbalance cClimate Change, Frame and Stone (2012), sought to evaluate the FAR temperature projection accuracy by using a simple climate model to simulate the warming from 1990 through 2010 based on observed GHG and other global heat imbalance cclimate model to simulate the warming from 1990 through 2010 based on observed GHG and other global heat imbalance changes.

Different models with equivalent current projections may project very different future ranges based on how those models interpolate new climate combinations not represented in the current climate data [58].

The projections in the NCA are all based upon climate models.

Based heavily upon inadequate global climate models (GCM) the best they have produced are correlations and climate «projections» (not even predictions), which are notably unreliable.

But those projections were based on climate model simulations that did not consider melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and may, therefore, be too conservative.

Climate projection — A projection of the response of the climate system to emission or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate Climate projection — A projection of the response of the climate system to emission or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate climate system to emission or concentration scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols, or radiative forcing scenarios, often based upon simulations by climate climate models.

Based on current models, this is not the case everywhere, and continued model development and improvement is required to decrease the uncertainty and increase the utility of regional climate projections for adaptation decision making.

To the climate people, «projections» are future conditions (with certain probabilities) based on modeling of fundamental principles.

This is a more robust way of assessing risks, including from climate, than using the approach adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which is primarily based on downscaling from multi-decadal global climate model projeclimate, than using the approach adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) which is primarily based on downscaling from multi-decadal global climate model projeClimate Change (IPCC) which is primarily based on downscaling from multi-decadal global climate model projeclimate model projections.

In my experience this is certainly the case if you talk about the simulations as predictions rather than projections — the climate models are not predicting what the weather will be on the 5th of May 2051 — they are providing projections of the climate based on emission scenarios and initial conditions.

And again: I don't think that real - world adaptation measures are solely based on model projections of future climate, nor that the only role of climate predictions is to support adaptation design.

In his talk, «Statistical Emulation of Streamflow Projections: Application to CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Change Projections,» PCIC Lead of Hydrological Impacts, Markus Schnorbus, explored whether the streamflow projections based on a 23 - member hydrological ensemble are representative of the full range of uncertainty in streamflow projections from all of the models from the third phase of the Coupled Model IntercomparisProjections: Application to CMIP3 and CMIP5 Climate Change Projections,» PCIC Lead of Hydrological Impacts, Markus Schnorbus, explored whether the streamflow projections based on a 23 - member hydrological ensemble are representative of the full range of uncertainty in streamflow projections from all of the models from the third phase of the Coupled Model IntercomparisProjections,» PCIC Lead of Hydrological Impacts, Markus Schnorbus, explored whether the streamflow projections based on a 23 - member hydrological ensemble are representative of the full range of uncertainty in streamflow projections from all of the models from the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparisprojections based on a 23 - member hydrological ensemble are representative of the full range of uncertainty in streamflow projections from all of the models from the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparisprojections from all of the models from the third phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project.

Third, it will better incorporate into its model - based projections more analysis regarding the potential impact of climate change on energy supply and demand.

We suggest, therefore, that projections of future climate based on these models be viewed with much caution.

«uncertainty» (in the IPCC attribution of natural versus human - induced climate changes, IPCC's model - based climate sensitivity estimates and the resulting IPCC projections of future climate) is arguably the defining issue in climate science today.

The last point of contention I have with the «consensus» position is that all of the projected climate catastrophes are based on climate model projections decades in the future.

As we learn further down this is based on a yet another study by parti - pris alarmists ramping up the climate change scare narrative using dodgy computer modeled projections of what might happen if all their parameters are correct (which they aren't).

Comment (2 - 13): The Southeastern Legal Foundation provides the following reaction to the African rain - fed agriculture projection, which appeared in the Sunday Times (Leake, 2010a) and comes from former IPCC chair Robert Watson: «Any such projection [pertaining to African crop yields] should be based on peer - reviewed literature from computer modeling of how agricultural yields would respond to climate change.

Needless to say, although we will, both the consensus climate experts and climate models have been spectacularly wrong in their doomsday projections for the Tropics, which means that human CO2 causing Venus - like conditions for Gaia has no basis in climate science reality.

Although model - based projections of future climate are now more credible than ever before, the authors note they have no way to say exactly how reliable those projections are.

Climate modelling has a different problem: based on forecast and projection, it is by definition an inexact science, but one upon which concrete decisions must be based if governments and societies are to assess risks and plan ahead.

However, there is additional knowledge to be gained and more specific actions that could be developed by factoring in the specific impact of additional climate stressors, using both historical data and model based projections to capture future climate impacts.

We know from our analysis of climate change, from the accelerating deterioration of the economy's ecological supports, and from our projections of future resource use that the western economic model — the fossil - fuel - based, automobile - centered, throwaway economy — will not last much longer.

Projections of climate change are based on theory, historical data, and results from physically based climate models.

Further, the projections of future climate change over the next fifty to one hundred years is based on insufficiently verified climate models and are therefore not considered reliable at this point in time.

Projections were based on a suite of eight global climate models driven by three emission scenarios to project potential climate responses for the 2050s period (2041 — 2070).

And finally, and perhaps most importantly, the future projection of temperature rise made by climate models (upon which the sea level rise projections are based) have been shown by a growing body of scientific research to be overestimated by about 40 percent.

I'm afraid that much of the strength of the reaction to your questions was based on past experiences - I can not count how many times someone has commented here and on other climate blogs claiming despite the evidence that mismatches between specific projections and observed temperatures somehow invalidate all climate modeling, despite the projected emissions not matching actuals.

Similarly, the climate scenarios were based on 2xCO2 equilibrium GCM projections from three models, where the radiative forcing of climate was interpreted as the combined concentrations of CO2 (555 ppm) and other greenhouse gases (contributing about 15 % of the change in forcing) equivalent to a doubling of CO2, assumed to occur in about 2060.