Not exact matches
The only true test of a money manager's ability is if he can obtain above -
average results over a full
cycle that includes both bull and
bear markets.
This instance may be different in the near term, but a century of evidence argues that the completion of the
market cycle will wipe out the majority of the gains observed in the advancing portion to - date (even without valuations similar to the present, the
average, run - of - the - mill
bear market decline has erased more than half of the
market gains from the preceding bull
market advance).
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Cycles Uncharted Territory
An
average bear market within a «secular»
bear market period (a period generally about 17 - 18 years, where valuations begin at rich levels and achieve progressively lower levels over the course of 3 - 4 separate bull -
bear cycles) is about 39 %, and wipes out about 80 % of the preceding bull
market advance.
Historically, the Fed tends to start new easing
cycles well into established
bear markets, and not surprisingly, the subsequent returns have been quite good on
average.
Based on the
average cryptocurrency
bear market cycle of slightly more than two months (71 days), the
market will normalize within a couple of weeks.