None of this is an argument that the market has necessarily registered either a near - term or a
final bear market low.
If the global economy actually makes a complete transition to a system based on alternative energy, crude oil will eventually drop below its 1986 secular
bear market low of $ 9.75.
That's not to say that acceptance of a recession would mark a long -
term bear market low, particularly because the S&P 500 hasn't even lost 20 % from its peak.
It will be interesting to monitor magazine covers if we observe a point where stock prices register
deep bear market lows, and an economic downturn is broadly viewed as a reality that can only be expected to worsen.
Table 2 clearly shows a clustering of
bear market lows around the congressional election period, or about two years into the presidential term.
As can be seen, three of the 16
bear market lows occurred in year one of the presidential term, 12 in year two, one in year three, and none in year four (the election year).
The SPX made a long term RST top of 2135 in May 2015 at the 1.618 Fib Extension [2137] of the 1576 - 667
bear market low before declining -12.5 % into the Pi Time zone of 2015.75, followed by a rally to 2116, then the final double bottom low at 1810 on 2/11/16.
At
secular bear market lows, the Shiller P / E (S&P 500 divided by the 10 - year average of inflation - adjusted earnings) has typically been about 7, as we saw in 1942 - 1950 and in 1982.
Not surprisingly, reports of greater institutional interest in cryptocurrency resurfaced last month as bitcoin rebounded more than 50 % from
its bear market low.
The S&P 500 currently reflects the best valuations since the 1990
bear market low.
Investors took this view with dot - com and tech stocks in the late 1990's, with disastrous results (even for legitimate growth stocks like Cisco, which dropped from a bull market high of 82 to
a bear market low of 8 with no intervening splits).
In all, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which has about quadrupled since
the bear market lows of early 2009, pushed ahead by more than 25 % in the just - ended 12 months, with the S&P 500 Index close behind with a full - year advance of about 20 %.
Perhaps today the absurdity has reached the apex of its crescendo with this utterly ridiculous «letter to gold bug» published by Marketwatch: It's time to surrender and let the yellow metal fall to its bear market low
Crypto assets extended their losing streak over the weekend, as the total market cap briefly fell below February's
bear market lows.
After hitting
its bear market low in intraday trading on March 6, 2009, the S&P 500 has risen by 307 % (dividends not included) through the close on February 20.
By comparison, the S&P 500 Total Return Index (SPXT) has risen by 385 % from
its bear market low on March 9, 2009, per Yahoo Finance.
For example, at the 1982
bear market low, the dividend yield on the S&P 500 Index reached a rich 6.7 %.
March marked the fifth anniversary from
the Bear market low.
A bull market was defined as a rise of at least 50 percent from
the bear market low, over a period lasting at least 6 months.
In the previous commentary, «Current Market Symmetry», I pointed out the 10/11/17 Pi date as it was 3141 days [3.14] from the 10/6/09 670
bear market low and... Read More >>
We will all be richer eventually if the March low wasn't
the bear market low.
It would put the dividend yield at just 2.8 %, far below the historical average of 4 % which has been attained at
every bear market low.
Crypto assets extended their losing streak over the weekend, as the total market cap briefly fell below February's
bear market lows.