According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII), the percentage of individual investors with
bearish outlooks over the next six months has been steadily declining since the 2008 financial crisis.
Not exact matches
While major SPDR ETF funds have been
bearish over the past few weeks, the long - term
outlook is still quite bullish.
For the U.S. market, they define investor sentiment using an American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) value index (percent bullish minus percent
bearish), derived from a weekly survey of individual investors regarding their
outlook for U.S. equities
over the next six months and published before the market open on Thursdays.
For the German market, they define investor sentiment using the Sentix value index (percent bullish minus percent
bearish), derived from a weekly survey of institutional and individual investors regarding their
outlook for German equities
over the next six months and published on weekends.
Actually, any strategy with a
bearish outlook is typically bad for the long term because markets tend to move in a positive direction
over longer time frames.
The EURUSD gained back some of last week's lost ground today, however, we are still
bearish biased on this market after seeing it weaken significantly
over the last two weeks as we discussed in this week's weekly price action
outlook.
Personally, I think 4 % is too aggressive, given the
bearish outlook for equity returns
over the coming decades.