Not exact matches
The results imply that the interaction between organic and sulfuric acids promotes efficient formation of organic and sulfate
aerosols in the polluted atmosphere
because of
emissions from burning of fossil fuels, which strongly affect human health and global climate.
From the Physical Science Basis: «Shindell et al. (2009) estimated the impact of reactive species
emissions on both gaseous and
aerosol forcing species and found that ozone precursors, including methane, had an additional substantial climate effect
because they increased or decreased the rate of oxidation of SO2 to sulphate
aerosol.
«A rapid cutback in greenhouse gas
emissions could speed up global warming...
because current global warming is offset by global dimming — the 2 - 3ºC of cooling cause by industrial pollution, known to scientists as
aerosol particles, in the atmosphere.»
Ideas that we should increase
aerosol emissions to counteract global warming have been described as a «Faustian bargain»
because that would imply an ever increasing amount of
emissions in order to match the accumulated GHG in the atmosphere, with ever increasing monetary and health costs.
I agree that targeting 2C rather than nothing is a start — but is it a start in the right direction or will we be confronted with a whole new set of excuses ranging from «we don't have to do anything
because of the «current» trend» or «we'll put up an
aerosol emission program as soon as 1.9 C have been reached» or «our scientists say we'll never reach the 2C anyway and we don't care what your scientists say» or other ideas like that?
Because aerosols only stay around for a short time (weeks), the concentration goes like the
emissions (i.e. double the
emissions to double the concentration).
It might well prove to have been impossible to keep temps from rising more than 1.5 C (
because they might have risen above that if we stopped all
emissions now — e.g. the lack of
aerosols alone might be enough to push temps beyond that).
This means that the «pause,» or whatever you want to call it, in the rise of global surface temperatures is even more significant than it is generally taken to be,
because whatever is the reason behind it, it is not only acting to slow the rise from greenhouse gas
emissions but also the added rise from changes in
aerosol emissions.
Christy is correct to note that the model average warming trend (0.23 °C / decade for 1978 - 2011) is a bit higher than observations (0.17 °C / decade over the same timeframe), but that is
because over the past decade virtually every natural influence on global temperatures has acted in the cooling direction (i.e. an extended solar minimum, rising
aerosols emissions, and increased heat storage in the deep oceans).
Worse, you have to know
aerosol emissions as a function of not just time, but of latitude also,
because how much sunlight they reflect depends on the angle of sunlight that impacts them.
«
Because there is considerable uncertainty in current understanding of how the climate system varies naturally and reacts to
emissions of greenhouse gases and
aerosols, current estimates of the magnitude of future warming should be regarded as tentative and subject to future adjustments (either upward or downward).»
There is a fairly large degree of uncertainty in these figures, primarily
because the magnitude of the cooling effect from human
aerosol emissions is not well known.
«About» ought to be in italics
because we really don't know how much cooling is caused by other
emissions, like particulate
aerosols that go up the smokestack along with the carbon dioxide.
Because of the first of these reasons, were we to abruptly halt all
emissions now, the sulfate
aerosols would rapidly be removed from the atmosphere by precipitation whereas the CO2 concentration would remain elevated, and so there would be a significant further warming influence just as a result of past
emissions; this warming would lead to the quite significant global warming that Lindzen mentions.
The other side of the coin is that for long term warming, the cumulative
emissions of CO2 are dominant, even if in the short term changes in its
emission are relatively ineffectual, even more so
because they are often combined with
emissions of cooling
aerosols.
This is problematic for the previous estimate
because anthropogenic
aerosol emissions existed prior to 1750.
Because of the combination of high absorption, a regional distribution roughly aligned with solar irradiance, and the capacity to form widespread atmospheric brown clouds in a mixture with other
aerosols,
emissions of black carbon are the second strongest contribution to current global warming, after carbon dioxide
emissions.
Because predictions of a cooling planet made during the 1970s — a number of researchers then believed that increases in the
emission of
aerosols, such as dust and smog, could put the planet on a path of sustained cooling — turned out to be wrong, climate deniers argue that the current projections could prove to be just as fallacious.
A bit of digression, but can atmospheric warming have «stalled»
because of the enormous
emission of reflective
aerosols from coal burning in China and India in the last decade or so?p class =» response» > [Response: In principle yes, but the evidence that more heat has gone into the ocean is very strong.
On one hand, the reduction in global SO2
emissions reduces the role of sulfate
aerosols in determining future climate toward the end of the 21st century and therefore reduces one aspect of uncertainty about future climate change (
because the precise forcing effect of sulfate
aerosols is highly uncertain).
If we add in the warming effects of the other long - lived greenhouse gases, the best estimate rises to 1.22 °C surface warming caused by human
emissions (we've only observed ~ 0.8 °C warming
because much of that has been offset by human
aerosol emissions).