Among the issues discussed: solar energy variations that could contribute to the ebb and flow of ice ages, new understanding of ice ages and the possibility of cooling
because of aerosol pollution, but also the possible confounding factor of increasing greenhouse gases:
Not exact matches
Because they are short - lived,
aerosols generally aren't distributed evenly through the atmosphere like CO2, but tend to be concentrated near centres
of pollution.
Indeed, conventional wisdom held that higher levels
of aerosol pollution in the atmosphere should cool the earth's climate
because aerosols can increase cloudiness; they not only reduce precipitation, which raises the water content in clouds, but they also increase the size
of the individual water droplets, which in turn causes more warming sunlight to be reflected back into space.
Aerosols from the production
of heavy oil is a growing climate and
pollution concern
because new tar sands developments are on the drawing board in Venezuela, Utah and elsewhere, the study says.
Aerosols in urban air
pollution and from major industries such as the Canadian tar sands are
of concern to scientists
because they can affect regional climate patterns and have helped to warm the Arctic.
«A rapid cutback in greenhouse gas emissions could speed up global warming...
because current global warming is offset by global dimming — the 2 - 3ºC
of cooling cause by industrial
pollution, known to scientists as
aerosol particles, in the atmosphere.»
So now get rid
of most
of the world's sulfate
aerosols in the next 50 years
because it's currently killing people, plants and destroying ecosystems (acid rain,
pollution).
From sheer thermal inertia
of the oceans, but also
because if you close down all coal power stations etc.,
aerosol pollution in the atmosphere, which has a sizeable cooling effect, will go way down, while CO2 stays high.
Not it is not similar
because one event injected sulfate
aerosols into the stratosphere where they stayed for years and affected the globe while the other («human particulates and
aerosol pollution») were produced in the troposphere and have a residency time in the atmosphere
of about 4 days and had only a regional effect.
Other influences:
aerosols, likely cooling, though the temporal variation is key (eg, they are net cooling overall, but their trend in the past 20 years may actually be net warming
because of sulfate
pollution control in the industrialized nations).
The approximate stand - still
of global temperature during 1940 - 1975 is generally attributed to an approximate balance
of aerosol cooling and greenhouse gas warming during a period
of rapid growth
of fossil fuel use with little control on particulate air
pollution, but quantitative interpretation has been impossible
because of the absence
of adequate
aerosol measurements.
Probably
because of both mid-century «global dimming» from
aerosols, and subsequent «global brightening» from reduced
aerosol pollution, a different interval — e.g., 1976 to the present — would have required a very different dividing up
of attributions.
The approximate stand - still
of global temperature during 1940 - 1975 is generally attributed to an approximate balance
of aerosol cooling and greenhouse gas warming during a period
of rapid growth
of fossil fuel use with little control on particulate air
pollution, but satisfactory quantitative interpretation has been impossible
because of the absence
of adequate
aerosol measurements.