My retirement accounts are more like a 50 - 50 split between stocks and bonds, because of a longer time horizon and
because yields on bonds are extremely unattractive right now.
Not exact matches
In a client note
on Thursday titled «Yanking down the
yields,» the interest - rates strategist projected that
bond yields would be much lower than the markets expected
because central banks including the Federal Reserve were reluctant to raise interest rates.
They'll be hoping the benchmark for global borrowing costs rises even further,
because their collective bet
on higher U.S.
bond yields has never been greater.
On a serious note, I was rotating into utilities instead of
bonds because of low
bond yields.
Higher
yielding fixed income offers those higher
yields because the issuers of the
bonds have a better chance of defaulting
on their debt.
, but I think it's a mistake for risk averse or diversified investors to completely give up
on high quality
bonds because they're worried about poor returns from low
yields.
Because of «Abenomics»» artificial demand for JPY
Bonds has pushed down JPY
Bond Yields, Aflac got only a 2.16 % return
on its Japanese float — exactly half the return Aflac received
on its USD float.
Putting aside the performance of
bonds during the bear market beginning in 1980 (both
because the starting
yields on Treasuries were so high but also
because the bear market was relatively mild as the decline began from relatively low levels of valuation), what's interesting about the above chart is how dependably
bonds protected a portfolio during equity bear markets.
Because the changes in tax law may not affect all investor classes equally and may be different depending
on the state in which the investor is located, the effect of these changes
on demand for tax - exempt
bonds and required investor
yields is still being determined.
It doesn't help that 10 - year
bond yields are still lower than the prospective operating earnings
yield on the S&P 500 (the «Fed Model»), not only
because the model is built
on an omitted variables bias (see the August 22 2005 comment), but also
because the model statistically underperforms a simpler rule that says «get in when stock
yields are high and interest rates are falling, and get out when the reverse is true.»
Capital markets are very sensitive to inflation
because of its impact
on real long - term returns, so it is not surprising that
bond yields have fallen as inflation has come down.
He lost money
because a lot of other funds have made money gambling
on corporate junk
bonds that are
yielding about 6.5 % now.
And just as long - term
bond prices decline as interest rates rise (
because new investors demand the
yield on old
bonds matches those of newly issued, higher
yielding ones), the same can be true (though not always) for triple net lease REITs such as STORE Capital.
Back in 1980, an investor would have still seen a return greater than 8 % over the following 12 months
because the average
yield on a core
bond fund was more than 13 %.
The advice
on avoiding high -
yield debt needs more explanation,
because bonds with high payouts are not especially sensitive to interest rate movements.
At present, the relationship between earnings and
bond yields seems tighter
because of the large substitution of debt for equity going
on, but that's not a normal thing in the long run.
I once was a mortgage
bond manager, and I bought senior securities
because the
yield spreads
on the lower - rated securities were so small.
If you sell out of high -
yield bonds now
because you're worried about defaults, you could miss out
on potential gains if the economic growth improves or if rates stay the same.
This makes the
yield to maturity easier to calculate for zero coupon
bonds,
because there are no coupon payments to reinvest, making it equivalent to the normal rate of return
on the
bond.
These types of low - rated
bonds are the same as the high -
yielding and speculative
bonds,
because they carry the highest risk and can bring the highest return
on investment, if they are paid back at maturity.
However, the
yield isn't,
because the
yield percentage depends not only
on a
bond's coupon rate but also
on changes in its price.
Over the (very) long run, equities out - perform
bonds and cash, as is evident below, but may not be practical alternative to
bonds for many investors,
because of investment horizon, risk - tolerance, dependence
on yield, or all the above.
Mortgage rates generally rise and fall along with
yields on Treasury notes and
bonds because those government securities reflect the overall direction of interest rates.
In fact, if inflation rises to the same level as the interest rate
on my
bond (3 %), then I am not receiving any real return
on my investment
because prices are going up at the same rate as my
yield.
Known as «high
yield»
because of the rewards offered to those who are willing to take
on the additional risks of a lower - quality
bond.
And just as long - term
bond prices decline as interest rates rise (
because new investors demand the
yield on old
bonds matches those of newly issued, higher
yielding ones), the same can be true (though not always) for triple net lease REITs such as STORE Capital.
Because of the inflation adjustment, this Fund's 30 - day
yield may be more volatile, and differ substantially from one month to the next, than 30 - day SEC
yields quoted
on traditional (nominal)
bond investments.
Because the coupon rate
on the
bond is already fixed, the price of the
bond will have to drop proportionately so that the return from the
bond (i.e. the
yield) increases to 6 %.
And this is made clear when
bond yields began climbing after the U.S. Senate's tax plan was revealed but the yen held its ground and only grudgingly weakened
on some pairs, very likely
because disappointment over the U.S. Senate's version of the tax plan
I ask
because before reading all the great links you have provided i always thought of
bonds as safe but rather boring as i believed one was always limited to the profit
on the
yields.
A Review of the Evidence, in which Fernando Duarte and Carlo Rosa argue that stocks are cheap
because the «Fed model» — the equity risk premium measured as the difference between the forward operating earnings
yield on the S&P 500 and the 10 - year Treasury
bond yield — is at a historic high.
This is very rare, but when it happens, it leaves a lot of very unhappy investors; their coupon payments are taxed as ordinary income and, if they choose to sell the
bond, the price they receive will be reduced
because buyers would require a higher
yield on a taxable
bond.
These days, you don't hear savings
bonds discussed that often, partly
because 529s and Coverdells seem like better alternatives and partly
because yields on savings
bond are now so modest.
The taxable
bonds should have a higher
yield than tax - free munis and,
because you're buying them in a retirement account, you don't have to worry about paying tax each year
on the interest generated.
I raise this ticklish issue (investors are passionate about their dividends)
because the
yield on a stock, unlike a
bond, doesn't indicate how much the company is worth.
Putting aside the performance of
bonds during the bear market beginning in 1980 (both
because the starting
yields on Treasuries were so high but also
because the bear market was relatively mild as the decline began from relatively low levels of valuation), what's interesting about the above chart is how dependably
bonds protected a portfolio during equity bear markets.
The present environment is characterized by unusually overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions, with rising 10 - year Treasury
bond yields, heavy insider selling, valuations
on «forward earnings» appearing reasonable only
because profit margins are more than 70 % above historical norms (fully explained by the negative sum of government and personal savings as a share of GDP), with the S&P 500 at a 4 - year market high, in a mature market advance, with lagging employment indicators still positive but more than half of all OECD countries already in GDP contraction, Europe in recession, Britain
on the cusp, and the EU imposing massive losses
on depositors in order to protect lenders in an unstable banking system where Cyprus is the iceberg's tip.
And here's the rub: high
yield bonds do not react to
yields on Treasuries, except negatively,
because when Treasuries rally hard, times are not good, and high
yield bonds do poorly, with
yields rising.
It looked dumb
on current performance, but if you look at investing as a business asking what level of surplus cash flows the underlying investments will throw off, it was an easy choice,
because bonds were offering a much higher future
yield than stocks.
In addition, focus
on those funds that hold most of their assets in stocks
because screening the stock - fund universe for high dividend
yields alone will turn up some funds that have substantial stakes in
bonds and other assets such as convertibles.
In a follow - up comment, Shoehorn argued that: «When
bonds have an effective PE of 100 (as they do in much of Europe), and inflation is only 1 %, you'd happily hold stocks
on CAPE ratios of 50 (earnings
yield 2 %),
because that's the only way to make a positive return in that market.
Yields on municipal
bonds are often lower than corporate or Treasury
bonds with comparable maturities,
because they have important tax - free advantages.
That was a wise choice,
because trying to improve
on this simple model is, in my opinion, the biggest knock against many of the competitors to these new ETFs, including the iShares CorePortfolios (CBD and CBN), which hold REITs, high -
yield bonds, preferred shares, and track fundamental indexes.
Maybe you could also shed some light
on this quote by Colm O'Shea «A lot of people say there is apparently no inflationary threat from the growing U.S. debt
because bond yields are low».
Yields on callable bonds tend to be higher than yields on noncallable, «bullet maturity» bonds because the investor must be rewarded for taking the risk the issuer will call the bond if interest rates decline, forcing the investor to reinvest the proceeds at lower y
Yields on callable
bonds tend to be higher than
yields on noncallable, «bullet maturity» bonds because the investor must be rewarded for taking the risk the issuer will call the bond if interest rates decline, forcing the investor to reinvest the proceeds at lower y
yields on noncallable, «bullet maturity»
bonds because the investor must be rewarded for taking the risk the issuer will call the
bond if interest rates decline, forcing the investor to reinvest the proceeds at lower
yieldsyields.
• When the
bond fund's
yields start to go back up to par with market rates (
because new higher -
yielding bonds are always being purchased), then this attracts money that was sitting
on the sidelines waiting before,
because they were afraid of interest rates going up.
Our research
on the Fundamental Index ® concept, as applied to
bonds, underscores the widely held view in the
bond community that we should not choose to own more of any security just
because there's more of it available to us.10 Figure 9 plots four different Fundamental Index portfolios (weighted
on sales, profits, assets and dividends) in investment - grade
bonds (green), high -
yield bonds (blue) and emerging markets sovereign debt (yellow).11 Most of these have lower volatility and higher return than the cap - weighted benchmark (marked with a red dot).
Bond yields recovered a bit
on Wednesday but resumed slumping
on Thursday, thanks to continuing concerns over Hurricane Irma and
because of the ECB's comment about an implied future tightening move,
Goldman Sachs & Co., the lead underwriter
on the deal, is proposing preliminary
yields of 2.63 percent to 2.75 percent
on bonds maturing in 2056, according to three people familiar with the price talk who asked for anonymity
because the deal wasn't final.