Fed has hiked 14 times and 10 yr rates are unchanged while 30 yr rates are 60bp lower than at
the beginning of the tightening cycle.
The link between
the beginning of the tightening cycle and the impact on financial markets is loose.
Not exact matches
But this unexpectedly sanguine report was a reminder that the
beginning of a Fed
tightening cycle could be near, and the subsequent selloff is a clear sign that the U.S. market is vulnerable to higher volatility in the near term, even though we like the long - term prospects
of stocks.
The pace
of rate increases has picked up since the central bank
began its
tightening cycle in December 2015.
Since the
beginning of its current
tightening cycle in June 2004, the federal funds rate has been increased from 1.0 per cent to 2.5 per cent in increments
of 25 basis points at each Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
Implied volatilities gradually declined around the world in the second half
of 2003, as it became clearer that the easing
cycle was drawing to a close, with some central banks
beginning to
tighten monetary policy after a prolonged period
of relatively low and stable interest rates.
However, the Fed's emphasis on downside risks is injecting a degree
of uncertainty — and volatility — into markets, a factor not lost on global policymakers that are calling on the Fed to end its handwringing and
begin the
tightening cycle.
The Reserve Bank
of New Zealand raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 6.75 per cent in March, taking the cumulative increase since this
tightening cycle began in early 2004 to 175 basis points.
But this unexpectedly sanguine report was a reminder that the
beginning of a Fed
tightening cycle could be near, and the subsequent selloff is a clear sign that the U.S. market is vulnerable to higher volatility in the near term, even though we like the long - term prospects
of stocks.
The recent move up
began in earnest at the
beginning of the last
tightening cycle, but has persisted into the loosening
cycle, as the FOMC has not let the monetary base grow, but has permitted the banks to continue to gather deposits (banking, savings, CDs, money market funds).
Consider the yield curve just before the
beginning of the 2004
tightening cycle versus the curve shape at the end
of that
cycle (see Exhibit 2).