And that, yes, is the market to which the title of this article refers, where I think we might be seeing
the beginnings of a secular bull market.
Or was March 2009
the beginning of a secular bull market?
The following chart (from Too Little to Lock In) provides a view of the sort of valuations we typically see at
the beginning of secular bull market advances, versus where we are at present.
Not exact matches
We are entering the final leg
of the first stage
of the
secular bull market which
began in 2009.
We note, with a more than a little bit
of curiosity, that the last
secular bull market in U.S. stocks
began in 1982 — just when the first Boomers turned 35.
Was the March 2009 low the end
of a
secular bear
market and the
beginning of a
secular bull?
His views are partially driven by the fact that in the
beginning of the last
secular bull market, multiples were low and interest rates were high.
US stocks are not now and were not at the
beginning of this move cheap enough in my opinion to support a
secular bull market thesis.
In the introduction to the last
Bull Bear Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities bull market began in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 2
Bull Bear
Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities bull market began in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of
Market Report, I further developed the thesis that an impulsive equities
bull market began in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of 2
bull market began in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake of believing that a secular bull market started in March of
market began in November 2012: Most analysts continue to make the mistake
of believing that a
secular bull market started in March of 2
bull market started in March of
market started in March
of 2009.
Given the extent and maturity
of the recent advance, it's very odd that analysts are now
beginning to toss around the idea that stocks have entered a
secular bull market.
The main argument
of the post — one that has been made many times before — is that passive investing is fine during
bull markets, but it likely won't work going forward because «we are in a
secular bear
market that
began in 2000.»
The main argument
of the post — one that has been made many times before — is that passive investing is fine during
bull markets, but it likely won't work going forward because «we are in a
secular bear
market that
began -LSB-...]
An average bear
market within a «
secular» bear
market period (a period generally about 17 - 18 years, where valuations
begin at rich levels and achieve progressively lower levels over the course
of 3 - 4 separate
bull - bear cycles) is about 39 %, and wipes out about 80 %
of the preceding
bull market advance.
If the
market is ever to enjoy a
secular bull market period again, we have to accept the potential for valuations to achieve levels that have corresponded to the
beginning of those
secular advances, but that's a very long - term issue.
Bulls, Bears and P / E10 Predictions I took advantage
of Ed Easterling's research to define the
beginning and end
of secular (long lasting)
Bull Markets and
secular Bear
Markets.
How can a new
secular bull market begin today unless you believe that suddenly the economies
of the world are going to shrug off their debt loads and economic growth rates will suddenly shoot up to 5 %, 6 % or more?