Compared to other investment options, apartment returns outperform bonds and T - Bills with somewhat higher risk, but are far
below the average returns for the S&P 500 and NAREIT Equity REIT with their much higher risk volatility.
This would give you somewhere around 10 % ROE, and this includes 0 (breakeven) income from underwriting and really
below average returns overall considering bond yields at all time lows.
In stock market periods of above average performance are usually followed by
below average returns and periods of below average performance are typically followed by above average returns.
For that to happen, markets need
below average returns.
Somme institutional investors will balk at this conclusion, but my experience in talking with institutional investors has been that though they look at many of the right forward looking indicators of manager quality, almost none of them will hire a manager that has the right people, process, etc., and has
below average returns relative to peers or indexes.
Below average returns result from transaction fees or high mutual fund fees.
Client will only get average or
below average returns.
Research also shows that screening for good five - year earnings growth leads to
below average returns.
The second trough preceded the 2007 - 2009 credit crisis, but has not yet manifest in
below average returns (returns are about average for the period), largely because the market has moved back into steep overvaluation.
If we zoom in on the area under the blue circle, we can see that Hussman's method has been predicting
below average returns since the mid-1990s, with a deep trough in 1999, and a smaller trough in 2007.
It's entirely possible that stocks might have
below average returns for the next few decades.
History would suggest that we should expect
below average returns following a huge run up but nothing is guaranteed in the financial markets.
And with interest rates at all - time lows and stocks at all - time highs, there are many who expect that not only will a 60/40 portfolio deliver
below average returns, but that bonds might not provide the protection they once did.
While this is
below the average returns of 10 % over the last 50 years, asset allocation is a zero - sum game.
In the MFO rating system, STDEV indicates the typical percentage variation above or
below average return a fund has experienced in a year's time.
For income, I'm targeting a 3 % withdrawal rate (vs. the historical «rule of thumb» of 4 %) from our investments due to my belief that equities will have
a below average return in the coming decades.
My expectation is FMCG stocks will provide
below average return than the overall market.
Including that final date reduced annual returns to 2.5 percent, which is slightly
below the average return.
Not exact matches
But van Beurden has been slimming down his portfolio of oil projects with the intent of keeping only those lean enough to make good
returns in a world in which oil prices
average no more than $ 40 a barrel, well
below the
average price over the past decade.
The Nasdaq's moving
average convergence - divergence line fell
below zero during the early February sell - off before
returning to above that level on Feb. 21.
«The
average IPO so far this year has been priced
below the midpoint of the range and the
returns have been positive both from the IPO and also for post-IPO investors,» she said.
Our 2013 year - end target of 1600 implies a 10 % price
return, where most of the appreciation can be attributed to earnings growth of 7 % next year, along with modest multiple expansion from 14.2 x to 14.7 x on trailing earnings, still
below an
average PE of 16x.
In the past, similarly high valuations have been associated with
below -
average returns over the longer term.
Attending one of these top public colleges can leave you with debt
below the national
average and a large
return on your investment.
Morrison said the month ended about three - per - cent
below the 10 - year
average for sales in August, signalling a
return to historically normal activity after record - breaking sales earlier this year.
According to WGC research, when real rates are between zero and 4 percent, gold's
returns are positive and its volatility and correlation with other mainstream financial assets are
below long - run
averages.
Put differently, as intuition would suggest,
below median P / E multiples typically lead to higher
average returns, while above median multiples have historically been associated with periods of
below -
average returns.
When the market is at least 10 %
below the low I like to increase my dollar cost
averaging which has greatly improved my
return on investment.
Once you adjust for both inflation and taxes,
average returns have been negative (See chart
below).
Although slightly
below the
average, this is much higher than
returns in the last two election cycles when a new president had to be selected: In 2008, the market plunged nearly 40 percent; in 2000, it ended down 9 percent.
Multiples
below 12, coupled with favorable market action, were associated with annualized
returns of 12.5 %, while multiples
below 12 coupled with unfavorable market action were associated with further mild losses
averaging -4.5 % annualized.
The
average monthly
return following a close
below the 12 - month moving
average is -0.15 %.
The lines show the cumulative total
return in the S&P 500 Index in all strictly negative market
return / risk profiles we identify, partitioned by whether the S&P 500 was above or
below its 200 - day
average at the time.
These
returns are in line with 8 % ROIC earned by Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) holdings and slightly
below above the 9 %
average for 465 Financials stocks under coverage.
While there is a general tendency for high interest rates to be associated with depressed valuations and above -
average subsequent market
returns, and for low interest rates to be associated with elevated valuations and
below -
average subsequent market
returns, the relationship isn't extremely reliable or linear.
As the article chart
below shows, McKinsey is forecasting that the
average annual equity
returns over the next 20 years will be between 1.5 and 4.0 percentage points lower than they were in the past 30 years.
We've been in a sweet spot of a combination of above
average returns and
below average volatility.
-LSB-...] table
below is from Ben Carlson's A Wealth of Common Sense and it is a summary of the subsequent
average, median, high, and low 10 - year
returns for the -LSB-...]
P / E ratios are not good at identifying market tops of bottoms, however, they are associated with
below -
average long - term
returns.
However, the recent advance has now re-established a combination of overvalued, overbought, overbullish conditions that has historically been associated with stock
returns below Treasury bill yields, on
average.
The chart
below, courtesy of the World Gold Council (WGC), shows that annual gold
returns were around 15 percent on
average in years when inflation was 3 percent or higher year - over-year, between 1970 and 2017.
When the sentiment index is more than one standard deviation above (
below) its historical
average, monthly
returns average -0.34 % (+1.18 %) for the value - weighted market and -0.41 % (2.75 %) percentage points for the equal - weighted market.
They also warn that because of extended zero - interest policy by the Fed, security valuations have advanced to the point where prospective nominal total
returns on a conventional portfolio mix are likely to
average well
below 2 % annually, with negative real
returns, over the coming 12 - year period.
Longer - term metrics, such as cyclically adjusted price - to - earnings, or CAPE, ratios, are even more troubling, suggesting that U.S. stocks are likely to produce, at best,
average to
below -
average returns over the next five years.
As indeed they should — due to the bear markets of 2000 and 2008 that wiped out most of the excesses of the late 1990s, stock market
returns from 1990 to 2011 were actually
below the long - run
average!
For all asset classes (but focusing on currencies), they define bad market conditions as months when the excess
return on the broad value - weighted U.S. stock market is less than 1.0 standard deviation
below its sample period
average.
One can relate this directly to a 10 - year prospective
return by recalling that historical tendency for market cycles to establish normal prospective
returns — if even briefly as in 2009 — at their troughs (and it's typical for troughs to reach
below average valuations and much higher prospective
returns than the 10 % historical norm).
Likewise, one finds that virtually every point of significant overvaluation was systematically followed by
below -
average total market
returns over a 10 - 12 year horizon.
In the past, above -
average stock market valuations were followed by
below -
average long - term
returns.
By taking this diversified and balanced approach, investors in the Growth Account have achieved an
average return of 8.5 % before tax — higher than the target rate of 6 % — as shown in the chart
below.