Sentences with phrase «best attribution study»

The above still stands out as the best attribution study I've seen.

Not exact matches

«Human - induced climate change likely increased Harvey's total rainfall around Houston by at least 19 percent, with a best estimate of 37 percent,» Michael Wehner, a co-author on an attribution study recently published in Geophysical Research Letters, said at the American Geophysical Union conference in December.

Trenberth says, and some scientists agree, that attribution studies that use climate models do not work well for weather events that are local and dynamic — a flash in the pan.

This included an event - specific attribution study on the 2013 New Zealand drought, as well as highlighting differences in the emergence of heat extremes for the global population when aggregated by income grouping.

Though the results from attribution studies such as this one tend to be released before they've been through the traditional process of peer - review, the methods underpinning them are peer - reviewed and well established, van Oldenborgh tells Carbon Brief.

However there's also attribution to the way people study, as some are better than others at traditional methods of study to achieve more.

The first cut at the revisions linked above has effectively the same match to the model trends as before (maybe a little better) and so no revisions to the models nor to attribution studies are likely.

These events would thus be good candidates for attribution studies — as Bob Henson of UCAR remarked in connection with the colorado event:

«Since the AR4, there is some new limited direct evidence for an anthropogenic influence on extreme precipitation, including a formal detection and attribution study and indirect evidence that extreme precipitation would be expected to have increased given the evidence of anthropogenic influence on various aspects of the global hydrological cycle and high confidence that the intensity of extreme precipitation events will increase with warming, at a rate well exceeding that of the mean precipitation..

The attribution calculation in the IPCC AR5 is based on fingerprint studies, where the spatial patterns of the temperature response of the climate models to various agents are scaled to best reconstruct the temperature record from observational constraints.

It's unlikely, because attribution procedures are designed to consider the possibility of model deficiencies and are tested to make sure climate models simulated internal variability well enough for attribution studies.

Scientists do have better things to do with their time than answer questions raised on climate skeptic blogs, and as a result, you will only generally be assured of a climate change paper taking a stance on the cause of the change if the subject of the paper is an attribution study.

The extreme event attribution technique used for these studies was pioneered well over a decade ago.

This evidence includes multiple finger - print and attribution studies, strong correlations between fossil fuel use and increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, carbon isotope evidence that is supports that elevated carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere are from fossil sources, and model predictions that best fit actual observed greenhouse gas concentrations that support human activities as the source of atmospheric concentrations.

IPCC has stated (AR4 WG1 Ch.9) that the «global mean warming observed since 1970 can only be reproduced when models are forced with combinations of external forcings that include anthropogenic forcings... Therefore modeling studies suggest that late 20th - century warming is much more likely to be anthropogenic than natural in origin...» whereas for the statistically indistinguishable early 20thC warming period «detection and attribution as well as modeling studies indicate more uncertainty regarding the causes of early 20th - century warming.»

Yet the preminary BEST study did not even address the attribution question (the biggest bone of contention between IPCC and its skeptics, which Dr. Curry has also addressed separately.

Those attribution studies, such as Foster & Rahmstorf 2011 and others have aptly noted this, and, though they might not admit it, McKitrick & Tole 2012 are saying something similar... include the change in the amount of coal burned along with some of the GCM's and you can be much better at having a better model of the surface climate trends.

says, and some scientists agree, that attribution studies that use climate models do not work well for weather events that are local and dynamic — ...

Point 17: The Beenstock study only shows that the correlation of the variability's between T (t) and dCO2 / dt is quite good, it doesn't say anything about the attribution of the offset and slope of dCO2 / dt, which is anyway from a different process than what caused the variability.

Researchers have been doing detection - and - attribution studies on well - understood, well - documented phenomena such as temperature changes and rainfall patterns for more than a decade.

It is well established through formal attribution studies that the global warming of the past 50 years is due primarily to human - induced increases in heat - trapping gases.

This included an event - specific attribution study on the 2013 New Zealand drought, as well as highlighting differences in the emergence of heat extremes for the global population when aggregated by income grouping.

«The assessment is supported additionally by a complementary analysis in which the parameters of an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) were constrained using observations of near - surface temperature and ocean heat content, as well as prior information on the magnitudes of forcings, and which concluded that GHGs have caused 0.6 °C to 1.1 °C (5 to 95 % uncertainty) warming since the mid-20th century (Huber and Knutti, 2011); an analysis by Wigley and Santer (2013), who used an energy balance model and RF and climate sensitivity estimates from AR4, and they concluded that there was about a 93 % chance that GHGs caused a warming greater than observed over the 1950 — 2005 period; and earlier detection and attribution studies assessed in the AR4 (Hegerl et al., 2007b).»

You are assuming we have a good estimate of the net climate forcing, but our estimate of solar activity 1000 yrs ago is poor, especially when you consider that the Svensmark cosmic ray mechanism is totally lacking in the climate models / attribution studies.

Probably the best - known attribution study for a specific extreme event is this one: http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2008AGUFMGC31A0723H

Yet there does not appear to be any discussion about attribution in the BEST studies, and there is already some criticism about its methodology.

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