The following chart shows that
the best decile of stocks based on the value composite have underperformed the average investment by over -11 % over the last twelve months.
Even though investing in
the best decile of a composite of value factors averages out to have excess returns of almost four percent annualized, when looking at shorter investment periods it only works a little better than two out of three years on a one - year basis.
Not exact matches
Even the
decile with the
best relative valuation is at the most extreme level in history.
Wes et al have set up an experiment comparing the performance of the stocks selected by the investors on the VIC — arguably the
best 250 special situation investors in the US — and the top
decile of stocks selected by the Magic Formula over the period March 1, 2000 through to the end of last year.
We tested the
decile approach and the joint approach in Quantitative Value, substituting
better performing value metrics and found different results.
If all of these roadblocks are there, how can the top
decile perform so
well — if all of there students scored so
well in the first place, they wouldn't have had the ability to raise their scores so much.
But it was a different story in the
well - regarded Unionville - Chadds Ford School District, which took heat from top - performing students and their parents when it eliminated its
decile ranking system — in which seniors are grouped in the 10th, 20th, 30th, etc., percentiles, — starting this year.
The studies are nearly unanimous in their findings that small stocks (those in the lowest four
deciles) do significantly
better than large ones.
The problem with the approach is that the lowest price - to - book value
deciles — that is, the cheapest and therefore
best performed
deciles — are uninvestable.
They are perhaps
best known for the Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk paper, which, among other things, analyzed low price - to - book value stocks in
deciles (an approach possibly suggested by Roger Ibbotson's study
Decile Portfolios of the New York Stock Exchange, 1967 — 1984).
The ninth and tenth
deciles together (with market caps under about $ 400 million, a
good definition of micro caps) account for less than 2 % of total market capitalization.
This 5.2 % yield spread is
well into the top
decile of the historical range and
well over the historical average of 3.9 %.
Thank goodness the relationship is weak, as current valuations for low beta stocks are
well into the top
decile of historical experience regardless of the valuation measure used.
Calculating BMDEV for the 3500 or so existing funds during that period, ranking them by
decile within peer group, and then assessing subsequent bear market performance provides an encouraging result... funds with the lowest bear market deviation (BMDEV)
well out - performed funds with the highest bear market deviation, as depicted below.
First, there is no evidence that any long - term average is consistently
better than any other, measured either on the raw performance to the value
decile, or by the value premium created.
A market capitalization of $ 2 million — the cheapest and
best - performed
decile — is uninvestable.
(For fun, it is the ninth
best out of 68 for that time of year; even that is not top
decile.)
Also, as starting Shiller P / E's go up, worst cases get worse and
best cases get weaker (
best cases remain OK from any
decile, so there is generally hope even if it should not triumph over experience!).
We tested the
decile approach and the joint approach in Quantitative Value, substituting
better performing value metrics and found different results.
I quote: By marrying the two and buying the 25 stocks from
decile 1 of Value Factor Two with the
best six - month price appreciation, average annual returns jump to an eye - popping 21.19 percent, turning $ 10,000 into $ 69,098,587 between 1964 and 2009.»
Sticking to stocks with yields in the second, third and fourth - highest
deciles is a
good idea.
While the net - net opportunities of the crisis may be gone for
good, your analysis / effort is certainly
better than average; why not apply this to the mid-lower p / b
deciles?
I have a proposal for a different investment approach... * considering only the «
best» alternatives: «value
decile» (
best return potential) and cash (lowest volatility / drawdowns).
To make it even more complicated, I was wondering myself why the
good old Shiller PE is not considered for selecting the stocks of the value
decile?
The
best performed
decile is Decile 1, which had a maximum market capitalization of $ 2 million in 2005 (and is likely to be of a similar size
decile is
Decile 1, which had a maximum market capitalization of $ 2 million in 2005 (and is likely to be of a similar size
Decile 1, which had a maximum market capitalization of $ 2 million in 2005 (and is likely to be of a similar size now).
I guess to tie it all together, based on this and some of your prior posts, what is the market cap range of the
best performing
deciles on a price / book basis?
Still, you were
better off in the value
decile by a wide margin over the full period.
It looked at rolling stock market returns between 1919 and 2017 and sliced them into the
best and worst
deciles.
That, in the middle of the global distribution (where people emit about 7 tCO2e per person per year), we find «the top 1 % earners from Tanzania, the upper middle class (7th
decile) in Mongolia and China as
well as poor French and Germans (respectively 2nd and 3rd income
deciles,» and that, at the bottom of the global distribution, we have, for example, the poorest 7 % of the population of India, (at about 0.15 tCO2e).