Sentences with phrase «best model estimate»

But again the «models» estimate includes an observed ice sheet mass loss term of 0.41 mm / year whereas ice sheet models give a mass gain of 0.1 mm / year for this period; considering this, observed rise is again 50 % faster than the best model estimate for this period.

Not exact matches

Contrast this with the modern - day retail model: Brands design an entire season's collection of 10 - 15 styles, do their best to estimate the demand based on wholesale orders or past seasons» performance, and then produce thousands of pieces abroad.

Bloomberg's Model 3 tracker estimates the company may be making about 975 of the cars a week, well short of the target to build at a 2,500 - unit rate by the end of this quarter.

We account for the projected size and earnings of the expanded workforce, as well as the amount of new housing that each city is expected to produce, and we adjust our model's input variables to develop high - and low - range estimates.

Like the Model S, Tesla does not report Model X sales, so we do our best to estimate monthly results for North America using all the data at our disposal (For more info on that, check out our disclaimer for the Model S)

We chose to model the effects on body weight because good evidence (from both trials and epidemiological studies) links regular consumption of sugar sweetened drinks to weight gain.8 10 12 Moreover, data from longitudinal studies support the idea that changes in the price of sugar sweetened drinks are linked to changes in body weight.20 Other groups have used this form of modelling to estimate the effects of a sugar sweetened drink tax on obesity.18 21 22

After refusing a planned cesarean for suspected macrosomia based on a 38 week ultrasound estimate of fetal weight, she gave birth vaginally to a healthy baby and later found that the midwives model of care better met her needs as a pregnant woman.

The model estimates the distributional effects of taxes according to the distribution of household income or wealth as well as other household characteristics such as age of the head of household.

They also developed a tailor - made model to ingest these data and jointly estimate both the transmissibility of the pandemic as well as its severity.

«We determined we need to be irrigating at 75 percent of our past ET levels as estimated with the current model and finding hybrids that better tolerate stress,» Brauer said, adding this was from studies conducted by Xu and Marek over several years.

The team also collected data on nearby saltwater - disposal wells and built a 3 - D model to simulate pressure from injection wells and estimate how it would move through underground rock.

Barnard and his team predicted how SoCal's shores would evolve from 2010 through 2100 by modeling the factors that influence beaches — estimates for sea level rise as well as wave and storm behavior and predicted climate change patterns if the world eventually stabilizes its greenhouse gas emissions by mid-century, then starts reducing them.

This finding is important because government agencies and consulting companies use 2 - D shallow flow models to predict dam breaks and floods, as well as to estimate flood hazards.

In a recent study, for instance, well - respected climate models were shown to have completely opposing estimates for the overall effect of the clouds and smoke in the southeast Atlantic: Some found net warming, whereas others found cooling.

Now, the NSF is helping researchers develop new chemical models that will provide better estimates on the global contribution of these aerosols.

The calculations are in line with estimates from most climate models, proving that these models do a good job of estimating past climatic conditions and, very likely, future conditions in an era of climate change and global warming.

While a GCM portrayal of temperature would not be accurate to a given day, these models give fairly good estimates for long - term average temperatures, such as 30 - year periods, which closely match observed data.

Using sophisticated atmospheric and climate models, the researchers estimated the levels of PM2.5 directly attributable to wildfires during a recent six - year period, 2004 to 2009, as well as under projected future climate change conditions (2046 - 2051).

Thinking that I might have a hot story to write about that would reveal something deeply wrong with current cosmological models, I first queried California Institute of Technology cosmologist Kip S. Thorne, who assured me that the discrepancy was merely a problem in the current estimates of the age of the universe and that it would resolve itself in time with more data and better dating techniques.

«In our opinion, regulators should require industry to undergo this kind of numerical modeling testing prior to drilling to better estimate the potential hazard beforehand,» continues Jeoung Seok Yoon.

With more data and better models pouring in, estimates for the Earth's hot and cold blazes will improve.

Overeem's technique «has the potential to give good quantitative rainfall estimates for real - time hazards forecasting, as well as regional and global climate model analysis in regions of the world where the impact could be great,» Baeck says.

«I was surprised the computer models did as good of a job as they did as predicting the changes that we estimated.»

Computer models can give a good estimate of mantle flow and crustal uplift, he said, and GNET's mission is to make those models better by providing direct observations of present - day crustal motion.

The NIST estimates that the cost of adding ISAAC to an SEM will be between $ 12 000 and $ 30 000, well below the cost of a new model.

Now, the same groups have built more elaborate models that paint a detailed picture of how the British countryside was ravaged by the FMD virus, taking into account things such as the location of every farm, the estimated number of pigs, cattle, and sheep each farm contained, as well as exhaustive data about the spread of the disease and the culling process.

Microsimulation is a modeling approach that is well - suited to estimating premiums and future flood damage claims at the individual policyholder level, the report says.

The model estimates that cases of both forms of drug - resistant disease will increase, suggesting that almost a third of tuberculosis cases in Russia (32.5 %) would be multidrug - resistant by 2040, as well as 12.4 % of tuberculosis cases in India, 8.9 % in the Philippines, and 5.7 % in South Africa.

Until now, estimates of shale gas production have primarily relied on models established for conventional oil and gas wells, which behave differently from the horizontal wells in gas - rich shales.

«The study provides more realistic modeling estimates of how much vegetation change will occur over the 21st century and will allow better predictions of future climate change,» she said.

Barthelemy says the model could also come in handy for estimating traffic delays, gas consumption and carbon dioxide emissions, so that urban planners and policy makers can better understand how those different factors evolve as a city grows.

Also using T2Well to model that well, they estimated how much oil and gas were actually flowing out to the sea floor.

They used the model to estimate stress changes induced in the area by two wastewater injection wells and the more than 70 production wells that remove both natural gas and significant volumes of salty water known as brine.

You can always count on the weather... to ruin a perfectly good game === Dr Norman Page says: September 14, 2013 at 8:12 am This new sensitivity estimate is merely a minimum tweak to a hopelessly faulty process.The climate models are incorrectly structured because they are based on three irrational and false assumptions.

We can now use these new models to better estimate the potential seismic and volcanic hazards.»

Indeed the estimate of aerosol forcing used in the calculation of transient climate response (TCR) in the paper does not come directly from climate models, but instead incorporates an adjustment to those models so that the forcing better matches the assessed estimates from the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

I'd love to know what they did take into account in attempting to model that period — must include astronomical location, sun's behavior, best estimates about a lot of different conditions — where the continents were, what the ocean circulation was doing, whether there had been a recent geological period that laid down a lot of methane hydrates available to be tipped by Pliocene warming into bubbling out rapidly.

One of those adjustments is to add +0.3 W / m ² to the figures used for model aerosol forcing to bring the estimated model aerosol forcing into line with the AR5 best estimate of -0.9 W / m ².»

That would seem to be a good test of whether the method produces a good estimate of TCR independent of the uncertainty in E. I tried such a thing, and my main objection to the Shindell (2014) paper is that when I test the «simple» Otto method vs. the Shindell method on the same model set in the paper, the Otto et al (2013) method still seems to perform better.

Recent innovations in multivariate models allow researchers to simultaneously estimate multiple determinants of current ability as well as changes in ability over time (Jacobucci et al., 2018).

«Some feedback loop or other processes that aren't accounted for in these models — the same ones used by the IPCC for current best estimates of 21st Century warming — caused a substantial portion of the warming that occurred during the PETM (Palaeocene - Eocene thermal maximum of 55 million years ago)», oceanographer Gerald Dickens, a professor of Earth science at Rice University and study co-author said.

The heights of the rectangular bars denote best estimate values guided by published values of the climate change agents and conversion to radiative perturbations using simplified expressions for the greenhouse gas concentrations and model calculations for the ice sheets, vegetation and mineral dust.

SALSA will gather data from permanent GPS stations to better understand subglacial water flow's influence on the larger ice sheet system and improve subglacial lake modeling through comparing our model's estimates against geochemical data.

Note that the old GISS model had a climate sensitivity that was a little higher (4.2 ºC for a doubling of CO2) than the best estimate (~ 3ºC) and as stated in previous years, the actual forcings that occurred are not the same as those used in the different scenarios.

An apparent mismatch between the modeled estimate and the heat that could be accounted for on Earth, led to well - known climate scientist, Kevin Trenberth to lament that it was a travesty.

To better understand the evolutionary history of immune genes in Nasonia, we estimated gene age for all OGSv2 gene models.

In 2010, a new study (which included better model atmosphere fitting) argued that the system is around six billion years old, even older than estimates of 3.7 to 4.3 billion years derived from a 2009 study based on mass and evolutionary models for the two brown dwarf companions Ba and Bb (Liu et al, 2010; and King et al, 2009), which are much older than an earlier age estimate of between 0.8 and 2.0 billion years based on the star's rotational speed (press release; Scholz et al, 2003; and Lachaume et al, 1999).

For each star, we present estimates and uncertainties of mass, age, radius, luminosity, core hydrogen abundance, surface helium abundance, surface gravity, initial helium abundance, and initial metallicity as well as estimates of their evolutionary model parameters of mixing length, overshooting coefficient, and diffusion multiplication factor.

But naturally one must first adjust for best estimate / judgement of model bias before combining evidence.

A combination of circumstances makes model - based sensitivity estimates of distant times and different climates hard to do, but at least we are getting a good education about it.