Sentences with phrase «best observational estimates»

I showed that using the best observational estimates of forcing given in the SOD, and the most recent observational OHU estimates, a heat balance approach estimates ECS to be 1.6 — 1.7 °C — well below the «likely» range of 2 — 4.5 °C that the SOD claims (in Section 10.8.2.5) is supported by the observational evidence, and little more than half the best estimate of circa 3 °C it gives.

The conclusion — taking the best observational estimates of the change in decadal - average global temperature between 1871 - 80 and 2002 - 11, and of the corresponding changes in forcing and ocean heat uptake — is this: A doubling of CO2 will lead to a warming of 1.6 ° -1.7 °C (2.9 ° -3.1 °F).

First, we note that the mean global power of atmospheric circulation estimated from (5) is about 4 W m − 2, which is in close agreement with the best observational estimates.

The refusal in AR5 to accept the implications of the best observational evidence and of the over-estimation of warming by the climate models and accordingly to either: reject the ensemble of GCM projections; use projections from a subset of GCMs with ECS and TCR values fairly close to the best observational estimates; or scale all GCM projections to reflect those estimates is unscientific.

Not exact matches

The team compared the scattering coefficient obtained by their approach with the scattering coefficient measured on board the aircraft and found good agreement between the estimated and measured scattering coefficients for a wide range of observational conditions.

The total of -0.7 W / m ^ 2 is the same as the best observational (satellite) total aerosol adjusted forcing estimate given in the leaked Second Order Draft of AR5 WG1, which includes cloud lifetime (2nd indirect) and other effects.

The match across designs is not as good for pilot high schools, where the observational analysis for lottery schools produces substantial and significant positive estimates, while the lottery results for ELA and math are small and not significantly different from 0 (though the match for writing is good).

The IPCC forbids him to quote from it, but he is privy to all the observational best estimates and uncertainty ranges the draft report gives.

Based on our assumptions of observational values, we conclude the AR4 model - mean or — best estimate ‖ of the SR (1.38 ± 0.08) is significantly different from the SRs determined by observations as described above.

and later: «With the exception of one SR case (RSS TLT) out of 18, none of the directly - measured observational datasets is consistent with the — best estimate ‖ of the IPCC AR4 [12] model - mean.

Under «effective radiative forcing» 20th century observational studies match complex models and paleoclimatology's best estimates for CO2 climate sensitivity.

- that new estimates of aerosol cooling are low - that new estimates of Ocean heat uptake are low - that therefore observational estimates of climate sensitivity may prove low - that observational estimates are now good enough that they should be preferred over models - that warming below 2C is net beneficial

Carrick «Keep in mind the estimates for the half - life of CO2 emissions is on the order 800 years (based on correlational studies)» niclewis September 24, 2014 at 3:00 pm I'm not sure that is supported by good observational evidence.

The assessment of the best estimate and likely ranges in the grey bars includes the AOGCMs in the left part of the figure, as well as results from a hierarchy of independent models and observational constraints.

To better assess confidence in the different model estimates of climate sensitivity, two kinds of observational tests are available: tests related to the global climate response associated with specified external forcings (discussed in Chapters 6, 9 and 10; Box 10.2) and tests focused on the simulation of key feedback processes.

The [climate models] overestimate future warming by 1.7 — 2 times relative to an estimate based on the best observational evidence.

If M&K 2012 are predicting something significantly different to SSIE = 1M sq km, or using significantly different observational data, that alternative evidential support showing «best estimate of 2 °C above present» is looking at the wrong Year X.

[10] Weighting models by the likelihood of the observed TLC reflection — SST relationship at the model's best estimate (mean) of it, widening the observational uncertainty to allow for the average uncertainty of the model estimate means, is a more reasonable approach.

However, it appears that the constrained best - estimate for ECS that Zhai et al. derive is simply the unweighted mean and standard deviation of ECS values for the seven models having seasonal variability derived relationships of low cloud extent with SST that are consistent with their observational estimate.

And the only purely observational study featured in AR4, Forster & Gregory (2006), which used satellite observations of radiation entering and leaving the atmosphere, also gave a best estimate of 1.6 °C, with a 95 % upper bound of 4.1 °C.

To find the IPCC's best observational (satellite - based) estimate for AFari + aci, one turns to Section 7.5.3 of the SOD, where it is given as − 0.73 W / m ² with a standard deviation of 0.30 W / m ².

I can now rework my Gregory 02 calculations using the best observational forcing estimates, as reflected in Figure 8.18 with aerosol forcing rescaled as described above.

¥ Vast knowledge of manufacturing processes and business procedures ¥ Strong grasp of all industry standard cost estimating techniques ¥ Proficient in the use of all applicable software programs ¥ Ability to work well under pressure and meet deadlines ¥ Excellent analytical and observational abilities ¥ Strong mathematical and financial skills ¥ Very good internal and external communications abilities