But if you want to make some money, this can be a helpful tool when it comes to
betting against the spread.
While this percentage would not be high enough to turn a profit
betting against the spread in football or basketball,...
Only four teams (Oklahoma State, Texas, Texas Teach and Iowa State) returned a profit
betting against the spread, with only Texas Tech and Texas yielding more than two units over the course of the season.
The best seed to
bet against the spread has been the 7 - seed which has gone 49 - 37 ATS, including 15 - 18 ATS in the first round.
Not exact matches
During the regular season we picked seven games a weekend
against the
spread as our best
bets, and went a comfortably profitable 54 -43-1 in that span.
The best - value
bets can often be found by going
against these teams because the oddsmakers adjust the line to reflect the expected weight of public money; so that the underdog is often quested at better odds or receives a larger point
spread than is warranted.
As detailed in our 2011 NCAAB
Betting Against The Public article, there is great value betting on games where an underdog is receiving under a quarter of all sprea
Betting Against The Public article, there is great value
betting on games where an underdog is receiving under a quarter of all sprea
betting on games where an underdog is receiving under a quarter of all
spread bets.
Just one week after receiving 35 % of
spread bets as home favorites
against Washington State, bettors are once again avoiding the Buffs.
Minnesota hasn't received more than 69 % of
spread bets since hiring Zimmer, which is amazing considering they have played
against many teams that are typically avoided by public bettors including Miami, Oakland, Tampa Bay and Tennessee.
According to our
Bet Labs software, from 2006 - 11, Kobe was 44 - 44 (50 %) ATS (
Against the
Spread), while LeBron was 55 - 35 (61.1 %) ATS in the playoffs.
As detailed in our 2011 - 12 NBA
Betting Against the Public article, there is great value betting on teams who are receiving less than 30 % of spread wagers as they have a winning percentage of 50
Betting Against the Public article, there is great value
betting on teams who are receiving less than 30 % of spread wagers as they have a winning percentage of 50
betting on teams who are receiving less than 30 % of
spread wagers as they have a winning percentage of 50.9 %...
No NFL team has received more than 89 % of
spread bets since December 7, 2008 when the Patriots -LRB--7) received 91 % of public support
against the Seattle Seahawks.
Tuesday's St. Petersburg Bowl was the first game of this bowl season to fit the system and saw Marshall, a 5 - point underdog
against Florida International, close with 30 % of all
spread bets.
In fact, we detail this bias in our 2011 - 12
Betting Against the Public article which shows that betting on teams who receive fewer than 30 % of spread wagers have won at 50.9 % over the past eight seasons — and that number jumps to 54.4 % when focusing solely at vi
Betting Against the Public article which shows that
betting on teams who receive fewer than 30 % of spread wagers have won at 50.9 % over the past eight seasons — and that number jumps to 54.4 % when focusing solely at vi
betting on teams who receive fewer than 30 % of
spread wagers have won at 50.9 % over the past eight seasons — and that number jumps to 54.4 % when focusing solely at visitors.
In fact, they only received 24 % of
spread bets in their Week 2 matchup
against the Packers which was the second least popular side of the young season.
Teams receiving less than 50 % of
spread bets have gone 138 - 130 ATS (51.5 %)
against non-conference opponents, but that win rate jumps substantially
against familiar foes.
In this week's matchup, the Vikings -LRB--6.5) are receiving 84 % of
spread bets and 86 % of total dollars wagered
against the Houston Texans.
As a result, just over six out of ten
spread bets are riding the wave and taking the points in hopes of Philadelphia keeping it within a field goal in Dallas
against the Jekyll and Hyde «Boys.
Well as the week progressed, so did Brees» health, and now I'm stuck with a
betting slip on Jacksonville to go into the Superdome, and not only win, but cover a damn
spread against Sean Payton.
As detailed in our 2011 - 12 NBA
Betting Against the Public article, there is great value betting on teams who are receiving less than 30 % of spread wagers as they have a winning percentage of 50.9 % sinc
Betting Against the Public article, there is great value
betting on teams who are receiving less than 30 % of spread wagers as they have a winning percentage of 50.9 % sinc
betting on teams who are receiving less than 30 % of
spread wagers as they have a winning percentage of 50.9 % since 2003.
With this game hovering around 70 - 30 in terms of ticket percentages, it might behoove you to know that teams receiving 30 % or less of
bets have gone 92 -67-8
against the
spread this season.
The table below shows the
against the
spread (ATS) record at specific
betting percentage levels when
betting on only visiting underdogs.
Sports Insights» NFL
Betting Trends data shows the Patriots are currently receiving 61 % of
spread bets for Sunday's AFC Championship Game
against the Ravens.
Immediately, I saw that simply
betting against any ranked team had produced a 1495 - 1465 ATS (
against the
spread) record since the start of the 2005 season.
Despite the Patriots nearly imploding last week at home
against the winless Colts, nearly nine out of ten
spread bets are sticking with New England to cover in DC, especially after the sportsbooks adjusted their lines to take a pivotal 1.5 points away from the home dog «Skins.
After posting a 4 - 12 record in 2010, Buffalo received 46 % of
spread bets and 37 % of parlay wagers in their Week 1 matchup
against Kansas City.
The public is excited about St. Louis rookie quarterback, Sam Bradford, to the tune of 63 % of
spread bets in the upcoming match
against Oakland according to our
betting trends data.
In these games, the underdog (team receiving 30 % or fewer
spread bets) went 11 - 5
against the
spread (ATS), for a winning percentage of 68.8 %.
Something to keep in mind when
betting on Thunder on a game - by - game basis is that historically, «super-teams» like this one have gotten off to slow starts
against the
spread.
Nevertheless, the public remains in favor of Kellen Moore and Co. bouncing back in a big way, with just over seven out of ten
spread bets in favor of Boise posting a 19 point victory or more on the road
against the Mountain West rival Aztecs.
In Week 3, Buffalo's high - profile win over New England was a big loss for the
betting public, causing a significant overreaction in the sports
betting marketplace as 81 % of
spread wagers came down on the Bills
against the Bengals.
As a result, the
betting public is back on the Tebow bandwagon, with slightly more than half of all
spread bets taking Denver to either win straight up or lose by two or less
against the 4 - 4 Chiefs.
However, the
betting public seems to have a short memory, as 8 out of 10
spread bets are sticking with Atlanta to win by 7 or more
against a 5 - 4 Titans team who has been plagued by inconsistency, yet looked good last week in a 30 - 3 upset victory on the road
against the high - flying Panthers
The Tennessee Volunteers are getting 70 % of public
spread bets according to our
Betting Trends data in their game
against the visiting Florida Gators (10).
The Jayhawks are currently listed +21 at home
against West Virginia and getting just 13 % of
spread bets...
Despite the large
spread, more than three out of four
bets are taking Texas to blowout Kansas by at least 29, especially after the Jayhawks were embarrassed 59 - 21 last week
against K. State.
In turn, this is the main reason why
betting against the public works best for
spreads.
On the season, underdogs have gone 266 - 228 ATS (53.8 %)
against conference opponents including a 208 - 172 ATS (54.7 %) record when they're receiving less than 50 % of
spread bets.
The first system analyzed
against the
spread (ATS) results of
betting every NFL team that closed at +2.5.
Even though the return on investment (ROI) steadily climbs as we look at increasingly one - sided public action,
betting against the public isn't profitable unless the team is receiving less than 25 % of
spread bets.
From a
betting standpoint, Kubiak went 56 - 63
against the
spread during his tenure in Houston and 17 - 15
against the
spread with the Broncos.
In our 2011 - 12
Betting Against the Public article we found that visitors receiving less than 25 % of
spread wagers have a winning percentage of 54.8 % over the past eight seasons.
Teams that open as the
betting favorite and then subsequently see their line rise before kickoff are 36 -32-3 (52.9 %)
against the closing
spread for the season... and 21 -11-2 (65.6 %) in November and December.
By applying
Bet Labs» «Days Between Games» filter, we were able to determine that teams playing in the second game of a back - to - back have an
against the
spread (ATS) record of 2058 - 2118 (49.3 % win rate) in regular season games dating back to 2005.
With high - profile coaching changes at USC, Washington and Boise State this season, we looked back in our database of sports
betting information to examine how teams historically perform ATS (
against the
spread) with new coaches in bowl games.
As a result, nearly six out of ten
spread bets remain committed to Eli and the G - Men picking up at least a four - point victory at the Meadowlands
against the 10 - 6 Falcons.
The first step to creating a good reverse line movement
betting system is to make sure we are
betting against the public, so we selected the «
spread %» filter and chose to examine those receiving 40 % or less of public
bets.
LSU hardly got any public support
against the Gators last Saturday, consistently attracting < 30 % of
spread bets throughout the week.
Even so, nearly nine out of ten
bets are sticking with them to bounce back and cover the
spread against Ohio State, especially after the sportsbooks took a valuable half point away from the home dog Buckeyes.
That information
spread quickly and immediately impacted the
betting line for their matchup Thursday (3/15)
against UNC Asheville as well as many future odds.