Sentences with phrase «better at forecasting»

Just as weather forecasters have become better at giving early storm warnings, real estate practitioners will become better at forecasting turns in their market.

On the other hand, they require always more funding so they can get better at forecasting the future.

However, there is strong evidence that long - term normalized ratios (and other ratios including the Q ratio, market cap / GNP, and deviation from trend) are much better at forecasting returns over periods from 5 to 20 year horizons.

Not a single one showed that Shiller or Hussman or anyone else who specializes in a 20 - 20 view of the past was better at forecasting future earnings.

A few weeks ago I wrote a piece arguing that forward earnings estimates were better at forecasting future earnings than were the popular backward looking methods.

They have been better at forecasting the unemployment rate, even as it has become less useful as an indicator of how strong labor conditions are because of discouraged workers and more lower wage jobs.

Unfortunately, ecologists can't do much better at forecasting when an ecosystem is about to collapse or change dramatically.

«Improving how we anticipate activity using new technology such as this is an important first step in doing better at forecasting and preparing for volcanic eruptions,» said STREVA Principal Investigator, Dr Jenni Barclay.

Statisticians, political scientists and data journalists have become pretty good at forecasting election outcomes.

First, the Fed isn't that good at forecasting — both the staff economists and the Fed Governors themselves.

That is why the post emphasizes that it is unclear that the model that does best at reproducing the LGM also does best at forecasting the future.

(Mebane Faber) Experts aren't good at forecasting.

First, the Fed isn't that good at forecasting — both the staff economists and the Fed Governors themselves.

In that paper, three financial economists — Itzhak Ben - David of Ohio State University and John R. Graham and Campbell R. Harvey of Duke — found that chief financial officers of major American corporations are not very good at forecasting the future.

The actual market return over the next year fell between their 80 percent confidence limits only a third of the time, so these executives weren't particularly good at forecasting the stock market.

If the model is as good at forecasting as hindcasting, then the populations of (model - hindcast) and (model - forecast), for the same time period around day zero should be the same.

The two populations should be the same if the models work equally well at forecasting as they do hindcasting.

«There were delays due to repairs, re-appraisals and re-inspections, but we've become very good at forecasting the impact [of hurricanes].»

We're generally pretty good at forecasting when we'll need furniture for one of our own staging jobs, so if we know we have three sets available and will only need two sets for the next 3 months or so, we're comfortable using one set for another investor.

Not exact matches

And same - store sales should be unchanged at best, or down a low single - digit percentage at worst, well below Dick's previous forecast for a 1 % to 3 % increase.

The retailer's shares tanked 19 % to $ 28.37 — their lowest level since 2010 — after it reported that same - store sales, or revenue of stores open at least 14 months, rose a mere 0.1 % in the second quarter, well below its own forecasts for a rise of 2 % to 3 %, and short of Wall Street projections for a 1.4 % gain.

We'll predict that in 10 years, FAANG Inc will sell at a PE of 25, down from 30 but still substantial, and still forecasting well above average profit performance.

My idea of financial forecasting consisted of looking at last month's sales, sticking my finger in the air and taking my best guess as to what next month's sales were going to be.

With new capabilities, the company hoped to improve its demand forecasting — specifically by narrowing the focus from warehouses down to individual customers to better predict how much of which products was needed on any given day at any particular store or vending machine.

Most important, forecasts are better, SLAs are being met, and products are on the shelves at the right place and the right time.

«Good organizations are forecasting their human capital and looking at the demographic data — who's graduating from university, how many people are retiring and the number of people available to take their place.»

«With more than $ 2 billion in online buying on Cyber Monday to cap an exceptionally strong 5 - day period since Thanksgiving, the online holiday shopping season is clearly going very well at the moment and is currently running ahead of forecast,» said comScore chairman emeritus Gian Fulgoni.

«The chart indicates that where forecasting agencies made gains, even the greatest of these lay within limits equalled by the best of our 24 imaginary records representing random action at random intervals.

Chinese GDP expanded at a better - than - forecast pace of 6.9 % in the first quarter, the fastest in six quarters.

The outpouring of almost comically muddled explanations of and forecasts for the Chinese growth miracle has been an especially egregious example of the way well - intentioned economic analysis has led to, or at least encouraged, worse outcomes.

The projections developed in assessing long - term fiscal sustainability are not exact fiscal forecasts, but are rather «best» estimates at a particular point in time.

If you look at production forecasts for oilseeds — where exports could exceed 3.5 million barrels per day by 2020 — as well as U.S. production in the Bakken — watch this animation to get a feel for how fast that's growing — then there's definitely a market for significant new pipeline capacity.

It's at this point the business needs an operating plan, financial forecasts and other well - understood management tools.

So we'll next look at what the company has done over the last decade (a good proxy for the long haul) in terms of top - line and bottom - line growth, before comparing that to a near - term forecast for profit growth.

After adjusting for the timing of New Year's Day and Easter, same - store food and liquor sales rose 1.3 per cent — the strongest growth in six quarters but still well below that at Woolworths, where same - store food sales are forecast to grow 3.8 per cent.

As usual, I don't place too much emphasis on this sort of forecast, but to the extent that I make any comments at all about the outlook for 2006, the bottom line is this: 1) we can't rule out modest potential for stock appreciation, which would require the maintenance or expansion of already high price / peak earnings multiples; 2) we also should recognize an uncomfortably large potential for market losses, particularly given that the current bull market has now outlived the median and average bull, yet at higher valuations than most bulls have achieved, a flat yield curve with rising interest rate pressures, an extended period of internal divergence as measured by breadth and other market action, and complacency at best and excessive bullishness at worst, as measured by various sentiment indicators; 3) there is a moderate but still not compelling risk of an oncoming recession, which would become more of a factor if we observe a substantial widening of credit spreads and weakness in the ISM Purchasing Managers Index in the months ahead, and; 4) there remains substantial potential for U.S. dollar weakness coupled with «unexpectedly» persistent inflation pressures, particularly if we do observe economic weakness.

The better - than - expected outcome for 2016 - 17, along with the much stronger than expected economic growth for 2017, suggests that the deficit outcome for 2017 - 18 could be much lower than currently forecast at $ 28.5 billion.

Instead, the government at that time decided to use the average of private sector economic forecasts rather than those produced by the Department of Finance even though E&Y had concluded that the Department's economic forecasts were consistently better than those in the private sector.

The announcement has already eroded mortgage finance company shares and prompted forecasts of slipping mortgage growth at the banks, as well as fewer home purchases and a price cool - down.

At the end of 2015, we realized to grow the way we had forecasted to our Board of Directors, we needed better data on our prospects and customers.

As well as missing revenue forecasts, Alibaba announced a $ 4 billion share repurchase program over two years, which it said was primarily aimed at offsetting the impact of the company's share - based compensation programs and other factors that could dilute the share price.

Asserting that we do not yet have either the facts or the methods to make forecasting a precise art, Michael argues that there are three basic reasons for continuing to make or act upon them: (1) some forecasts are likely to be close to the mark, (2) poor forecasts provide a better basis for planning than no prediction at all, and (3) well - done forecasts help to illuminate the many factors that interact to produce the future.

Mark brings his highly accomplished background in budgeting, forecasting, financial modeling as well as technical systems evaluation and analyses to his role at Tavistock Restaurant Collection.

We're on the extended forecast now (not looking good at the moment, but keep your fingers crossed) and the fact that we're also packing up our entire apartment before the wedding is suddenly much more stressful than one week ago.

They're in a weak division and have the best pitcher in baseball who should be healthy all year (at least that's the forecast).

History has shown the best actor, actress, and supporting actor winners tend to forecast which nominees in those categories will also emerge as winners at the Oscars, so make sure you tune in for the late - January ceremony.

Yet over the past few seasons they have performed rather better than us; and this at a time when their demise has been repeatedly forecast as, time and again, players and managers have looked for a speedy exit up the M3 towards the brighter lights of London and the North West.

She adds that growth projections for the world have been put at 3.2 % and 3 % for sub-Saharan Africa by global experts, «we [Ghana] are forecasting 5.4 % of which we have started to do well already.

I hope that $ 38 they arrived at was based on good forecasting, on consistent macro-economic framework and macro-econometric model.

This forecast assumes a «normal» pattern for the Liberal Democrat vote, which of course may well not be the case (the alternative of giving the Lib Dems the same incumbency effect as found for the other two main parties has them returning to around their 2010 vote share, which at this stage of the game seems unlikely).