Sentences with phrase «better hurricane models»

With GOES - 16 and CYGNSS nearly online, scientists are looking forward to even better hurricane models thanks to even better data.

Not exact matches

Unlike existing models, FV3 can also re-create vertical air currents that move between boxes, such as the updrafts that are a key element of hurricanes as well as tornadoes and thunderstorms.

FV3 did a far better job at simulating the intensity of Harvey than the other two leading models, but it lagged behind the European model in determining the hurricane's path, Lin says.

• EXTREME WEATHER New radar and satellite technologies will allow forecasters to build better computer models for extreme weather events, such as tornadoes and hurricanes.

For every hurricane in the North Atlantic Basin between 1997 and 2013, they pulled information such as mean sea - level pressure and temperature as well as vertical temperature and humidity profiles, and entered it into a thermodynamic hurricane model that treats each storm as a gigantic heat engine.

What he found was that not only were the simulations much closer to actual observations, but the high - resolution models were far better at reproducing intense storms, such as hurricanes and cyclones.

This data will help determine damage from the surge and improve models of flooding in the future, which could help provide a better picture of where future storm waters will go and who needs to be evacuated ahead of hurricanes.

During Thursday's press conference, officials also touted the updated models and tools they have to produce better forecasts for individual storms, part of a concerted effort that has greatly improved hurricane forecasts over the past couple of decades.

Also, unlike the bulk of climate models to date, the increase in odds of extreme storms found in the study stems both from a shift toward more intense hurricanes as well as an overall increase in hurricane frequency.

If we had a good model, we would have better predictions on hurricanes, which have been uniformly lousy for the last ten years.

Chan and Liu (2004) argue that current models are not yet sufficiently good for addressing the question regarding global warming and typhoons (A typhoon is technically the same as a hurricane, the difference being that they form over the western Pacific or the Indean Ocean).

Certainly any increase in air temperature from radiative forcings (apparently reasonably well modeled in the GCMs) is going to increase the temperature differential from ground to space, which will increase the vertical air velocity (ie increased hurricane strength) and DECREASE the residence time of energy in the air in the same manner that GHGs increase the residence time.

2) As with some previous potent winter storms and hurricanes (including Sandy), there's been a consistent focus on the computer model of the European Center for Medium - Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, for short) as the best at getting details like snowfall amounts right.

Using a recently developed hurricane synthesizer driven by large - scale meteorological variables derived from global climate models, 1000 artificial 100 - yr time series of Atlantic hurricanes that make landfall along the U.S. Gulf and East Coasts are generated for four climate models and for current climate conditions as well as for the warmer climate of 100 yr hence under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenario A1b.

Here is why I think it matters: 1) Actively subverting FOIA intent 2) Admitting a) Hockey stick flawed & Steve is right, b) hide decline was dishonest, c) climate models are pretty bad, and d) cherry picking results like Japan hurricanes to emphasize a pre-ordained message 3) Trying to manipulate (and probably succeeding) who gets to be IPCC author 4) Trying to manage the message (PR concern) 5) Viewing science results as helping or hurting «the cause» — Mann especially All the above subverts the official messages of «overwhelming consencus» and «science is settled», world's best scientists just doing their science, and that it would be «absurd» to see a conspiracy.

What he found was that not only were the simulations much closer to actual observations, but the high - resolution models were far better at reproducing intense storms, such as hurricanes and cyclones.

On the question of hurricanes, the theoretical arguments that more energy and water vapor in the atmosphere should lead to stronger storms are really sound (after all, storm intensity increases going from pole toward equator), but determining precisely how human influences (so including GHGs [greenhouse gases] and aerosols, and land cover change) should be changing hurricanes in a system where there are natural external (solar and volcanoes) and internal (e.g., ENSO, NAO [El Nino - Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation]-RRB- influences is quite problematic — our climate models are just not good enough yet to carry out the types of sensitivity tests that have been done using limited area hurricane models run for relatively short times.

I think a much better way to illustrate the range of model projected outputs would be to copy the method used to display projected Hurricane paths.

For problems with coherent features, such as hurricanes, thunderstorms, firelines, squall lines, and rain fronts, there is a need to adjust the numerical model state by deforming the state in space (its grid) as well as by correcting the state amplitudes additively.

The models are in better agreement when projecting changes in hurricane precipitation — almost all existing studies project greater rainfall rates in hurricanes in a warmer climate, with projected increases of about 20 % averaged near the center of hurricanes.

Scaling the results from both theory as well as climate model projections suggest, then, that roughly 3 % of hurricane rainfall today can be reasonably attributed to manmade global warming.

The good news is that the model used by Holland and Bruyère anticipates that we are approaching a limit in this trend of increasing proportionality of intense hurricanes.

You might as well say that we can model unemployment as a function of unicorn farts, and that hurricanes are just God crying.

In this section, we examine how well the GFDL hurricane model has performed throughout its years as an operational forecasting system.

In the case of Katrina, Jacobson's model revealed that an array of 78,000 wind turbines off the coast of New Orleans would have significantly weakened the hurricane well before it made landfall.

However, the latest upgrades to the GFDL hurricane model have led to significant improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts by better representing the atmospheric and oceanic physical processes critical for intensity prediction.

GFDL's global models are used to study the causes of annual variability and recent trends in hurricane activity, as well as the predictability of the Atlantic hurricane season.

And as Emanuel explains, his «hunch» is that the disturbing hurricane response that his study found is a perverse result of this seemingly «good news» aspect of the models» projections.

The average intensity of the storms that do occur increases by a few percent (Figure 6), in general agreement with previous studies using other relatively high resolution models, as well as with hurricane potential intensity theory (Emanuel 1987).

He's seen this model used in previous research by Emanuel, and «it seems to work fairly well at replicating overall Atlantic hurricane activity,» Klotzbach wrote in an email to Earther.

«We would characterize this as a «defining period» for Facebook, Zuckerberg, and the Street's ability to navigate through this hurricane - like storm with the company's business model still well intact.»