Regardless of the root cause, though, the discovery of the central Pacific hot spot should lead to
better hurricane predictions and fewer surprises.
Not exact matches
He said scientists need about a century's worth of
good data to start making sophisticated
predictions about the influence of human - caused climate change on
hurricane frequency.
Each December, six months before the start of
hurricane season, the now 75 - year - old Gray and his team issue a long - range
prediction of the number of major tropical storms that will arise in the Atlantic Ocean basin, as
well as the number of
hurricanes (with sustained winds of 74 miles per hour or more) and intense
hurricanes (with winds of at least 111 mph).
National
Hurricane Center Tropical
Prediction Center A
good place to go for current advisories, reviews of previous years»
hurricanes, and historical storm data (e.g., deadliest, most expensive, most intense storms).
If we had a
good model, we would have
better predictions on
hurricanes, which have been uniformly lousy for the last ten years.
Their hindcasts (and forecasts for ENSO,
hurricanes, regional
predictions, etc.) would certainly look
better.
-- Muller believes humans are changing climate with CO2 emissions — humans have been responsible for «most» of a 0.4 C warming since 1957, almost none of the warming before then — IPCC is in trouble due to sloppy science, exaggerated
predictions; chairman will have to resign — the «Climategate» mails were not «hacked» — they were «leaked» by an insider — due to «hide the decline» deception, Muller will not read any future papers by Michael Mann — there has been no increase in
hurricanes or tornadoes due to global warming — automobiles are insignificant in overall picture — China is the major CO2 producer, considerably more than USA today — # 1 priority for China is growth of economy — global warming is not considered important — China CO2 efficiency (GDP per ton CO2) is around one - fourth of USA today, has much room for improvement — China growth will make per capita CO2 emissions at same level as USA today by year 2040 — if it is «not profitable» it is «not sustainable» — US energy future depends on shale gas for automobiles; hydrogen will not be a factor — nor will electric cars, due to high cost — Muller is upbeat on nuclear (this was recorded pre-Fukushima)-- there has been no warming in the USA — Muller was not convinced of Hansen's GISS temperature record; hopes
BEST will provide a
better record.
We should also continue researching into
better hurricane monitoring and
prediction.
Among those in attendance was Phil Klotzbach, a
hurricane researcher at Colorado State University who now does much of the research for Bill Gray's seasonal
hurricane predictions, the oldest and
best - known annual forecast.
However, the latest upgrades to the GFDL
hurricane model have led to significant improvements in
hurricane intensity forecasts by
better representing the atmospheric and oceanic physical processes critical for intensity
prediction.