and give
us better paleoclimate data (stop hiding it!!)
Not exact matches
The
paleoclimate data, which included mainly changes in the oxygen isotopes of the calcium carbonate deposits, were then compared to similar records from other caves, ice cores, and sediment records as
well as model predictions for water availability in the Middle East and west central Asia today and into the future.
A
best estimate of climate sensitivity close to 3 °C for doubled CO2 has been inferred from
paleoclimate data [51]--[52].
The detailed temporal and geographical response of the climate system to the rapid human - made change of climate forcings is not
well - constrained by empirical
data, because there is no faithful
paleoclimate analog.
Alternatively, more direct observations of that radiative imbalance would be nice, or
better theoretical and observational understanding of the water vapor and cloud feedbacks, or more
paleoclimate data which can give us constraints on historical feedbacks, but my guess is that ocean heat content measurements would be the
best near term bet for improving our understanding of this issue.
«In reality climate models have been tested on multicentennial time scales against
paleoclimate data (see the most recent PMIP intercomparisons) and do reasonably
well at simulating small Holocene climate variations, and even glacial - interglacial transitions.
Previous large natural oscillations are important to examine: however, 1) our
data isn't as
good with regards to external forcings or to historical temperatures, making attribution more difficult, 2) to the extent that we have solar and volcanic
data, and
paleoclimate temperature records, they are indeed fairly consistent with each other within their respective uncertainties, and 3) most mechanisms of internal variability would have different fingerprints: eg, shifting of warmth from the oceans to the atmosphere (but we see warming in both), or simultaneous warming of the troposphere and stratosphere, or shifts in global temperature associated with major ocean current shifts which for the most part haven't been seen.
We suggest that the
best constraint on actual climate sensitivity is provided by
paleoclimate data that imply a sensitivity 3 ± 1 °C for 2 CO2 [Hansen et al., 1984, 1993, 1997b; Hoffert and Covey, 1992].
The information derives in part from
paleoclimate data, the record of how climate changed in the past, as
well as from measurements being made now by satellites and in the field.
This network consists of scientists from 9 regional working groups, each of which collects and processes the
best paleoclimate (past climate change)
data from their respective region.
A
best estimate of climate sensitivity close to 3 °C for doubled CO2 has been inferred from
paleoclimate data [51]--[52].
Best we currently have for a comparable time using
paleoclimate data is not the Eemian but much further back — to the Pliocene.
The dynamic range is much
better in the
paleoclimate data and that is what enables us to actually fight off the uncertainty (monster).
Really, it's because the
paleoclimate data is pointing to the 3C per doubling of CO2 as being a pretty
good number.
A proper thing to say is that
paleoclimate data and global modeling need to go hand in hand to develop
best understanding — almost everyone will agree with that.
Our
best guide here is probably the
paleoclimate data, which tends to indicate we're headed for mid-Pliocene to Miocene - like conditions as we go toward 560 ppm, which again, are about 3C or higher than pre-industrial temperatures.
Accomplishing this will require synthesizing multiple lines of scientific evidence, including simple and complex models, physical arguments, and
paleoclimate data, as
well as new modeling experiments to
better explore the possibility of extreme scenarios.
PS — I'd be very interested to hear a bit more about what you are referring to when you say a «procedure of working out from
good data has much to recommend to
paleoclimate.»
I have always thought more weight should be given to the
paleoclimate data than to climate models, on account of it being,
well,
data.
The problems with the
paleoclimate data are
well known and will not be summarized here; however, the issue of interest in this context is not the «blade» of the hockey stick, but rather the modes of variability and their magnitude seen in the stick handle.
When I published my
paleoclimate reconstruction, it was specifically to show that leaving out tree rings gave a different result, but the criticism was that it wasn't «
good» — but I didn't say the endeavor was even possible and clearly stated the limitations of the
data.