If you are going to watch college football this weekend, there is value
betting against ranked teams playing their home opener.
Over the past few years, we have constantly explained that bettors can take advantage of public perception by
betting against ranked teams — but what happens when two ranked teams square off?
Immediately, I saw that simply
betting against any ranked team had produced a 1495 - 1465 ATS (against the spread) record since the start of the 2005 season.
It'd be better to not pay too much attention to
betting against rankings.
We have also written at length about how it is profitable to
bet against ranked College Football teams, fade NFL teams in «must - win» situations, take NBA underdogs after a blowout loss and pound the over in bad weather NFL games.
It has been a profitable strategy to
bet against ranked teams after a loss.
The Crimson Tide have been profitable
bets against ranked opponents but division games have proven tricky.
Not exact matches
The Play: After a private meeting with Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary John Paulson on the impending financial crisis on September 16, 2008, Bachus — then the
Ranking Member on the House Financial Services Committee —
bet against the stock market, netting himself tens of thousands of dollars.
This causes a false sense of security for bettors and can create excellent value
betting against the nation's top
ranked teams.
We do not recommend
betting against every single
ranked team, but knowing that these
rankings can artificially inflate the line based on public perception can help add value for sharp bettors.
Using our
Bet Labs software, we sought to determine whether we could find any historical value by fading (
betting against)
ranked teams following a loss.
Since we already knew that a majority of public bettors routinely take
ranked teams
against ranked opposition, I believed that we could exploit this tendency by focusing on heavily
bet games where shading would be more prevalent.
The table below displays how unranked teams have fared
against ranked opponents based on the number of
bets compared to the daily average.
Often times,
ranked teams receive the majority of
bets, but this isn't a smart move by the public in games
against a conference opponent.
I would not recommend
betting against every single
ranked team, but it's clear that
ranked teams routinely have artificially inflated lines based on public perception.
Not surprisingly, three of the games in which Kentucky received fewer than 50 % of spread
bets came
against North Carolina, Florida and Louisville, other
ranked - teams and perennial favorites of public bettors as well.
We have also found that bowl teams receiving less than 35 % of spread
bets have gone 40 - 21 ATS (65.6 %) when they face off
against a
ranked opponent.
When it comes to college sports,
betting on a
ranked team
against the spread isn't always the best idea.
Despite one of the largest spreads of the week, the
betting public remains overwhelmingly confident in Houston covering
against the 2 - 8 Green Wave, mostly due to the fact that the Houston offense looks unstoppable and Tulane
ranks near the bottom in points allowed and overall defense.
There are also some specialty articles dealing with highly -
ranked basketball teams, and how
betting against the public fares during the March Madness tournament.
Meanwhile our
betting system — which focused on well rested road teams
against ranked opponents — improved to 85 - 51 ATS as Miami (+9) lost to Florida State by just 5 - points to cover the spread.
Conversely, Mississippi State fits a highly profitable
betting system that focuses on well - rested teams
against ranked opponents.
Interestingly, the Power
Rankings are currently aligned with
Betting Against the Public strategies outlined by SportsInsights on three games:
The most profitable situation is to
bet against low
ranked Non-Power 5 teams that don't have a perfect record.
Using a couple of
Bet Labs filters, I looked at teams coming off of a loss of at least 21 points
against a team that was
ranked in the top 10 in the previous week:
It is a good idea to
bet against the public when they fade a
ranked team.
A contrarian strategy is
betting against highly
ranked teams after big wins.
Betting Trends Favorites went 30 - 34 (46.9 %) ATS Road teams went 32 - 32 (50.0 %) ATS Unders went 37 - 27 (57.8 %)
Betting against the public (< 35 % of tickets): 30 - 37 (44.8 %) ATS
Ranked teams getting < 50 % of the
bets: 3 - 6 ATS Biggest Money - line Upsets -LSB-...]
The most aggressive traders are joining the growing
ranks of those
betting against the three - month rally in U.S. stocks.