If you buy into either theory, we got more than two years» worth of data that points to
betting against teams before their trip aboard.
The last row adds a stipulation that I particularly like:
betting against these teams when they're in the midst of a hot streak.
Filtering this even further and solely
betting against teams receiving 80 % or more of public betting action produced a slightly less profit of +20.44 units, but the massive reduction in the number of games bet more than doubles the ROI to 9.2 % at this level.
This ensures that the system is always
betting against teams who made the playoffs in the previous season.
Our next step was to use a variety of filters to determine if there was any situation in which
betting against teams playing in the tail end of a back - to - back would be profitable.
This time a few of the players who were suspected by the captains of having
bet against the team left the room laughing, unaffected by the gravity of the accusation.
The word was that some players were
betting against the team.
You're also
betting against a team that has won at least two thirds of their games, which is a 54 win pace.
As you can see from the screenshot below, historically it has been more profitable to
bet against teams who made the playoffs in their most recent season.
You can't just blindly bet on every team on a ATS losing streak while
betting against every team on an ATS winning streak, but there's definitely profitable spots to do so.
Teams never offer more value than they do after a loss, and there is never a more favorable time to
bet against a team than after a victory.
That's excellent news for contrarian bettors, since it's been highly lucrative to
bet against teams who won their previous game by at least 7 - points.
However, while uninformed bettors may think that it's best to
bet against these teams, our data indicates that betting on these tanking teams can be highly profitable.
It's smart for bad NFL teams to tank for better draft picks, but is it also smart to
bet against teams tanking late in the season?
You wouldn't
bet against this team!
The bookies were right to make them odds - on favourites, but we couldn't
bet against our team, and the odds were sufficiently generous to be worth a punt.
Since 2005, if
you bet against every team when they played their fourth game in five nights you would have gone 522 - 479 (52.1 %) ATS, +16.84 units.
Not exact matches
It's hard to
bet against Jackson with his dominant second half to the season, but the Seahawks have proven their ability to neutralize an opposing
team's stud running back.
The Antipodes
team cautioned that timing is a large part of getting a short call right and therefore approached making predictions about what to
bet against in 2017 with some trepidation.
Do u notice and i will
bet u we will fail
against every top
team.
United will need everybody to do a job for the
team against West Ham, and Lingard is a safer
bet.
Betting against the public in heavily bet college games has always been profitable and betting against a top - 3 team in particular has also been quite lucrative, hitting at nearly a 55 % ATS rate when getting 25 % o
Betting against the public in heavily
bet college games has always been profitable and
betting against a top - 3 team in particular has also been quite lucrative, hitting at nearly a 55 % ATS rate when getting 25 % o
betting against a top - 3
team in particular has also been quite lucrative, hitting at nearly a 55 % ATS rate when getting 25 % or less.
In yesterday's action, we
bet against three of the country's top five
teams including number one Kentucky.
The best - value
bets can often be found by going
against these
teams because the oddsmakers adjust the line to reflect the expected weight of public money; so that the underdog is often quested at better odds or receives a larger point spread than is warranted.
Betting Against The Public The logic is simple: whichever
team the public loads up on, go the other way.
As detailed in our 2012 - 13 NBA
Betting Against the Public Preview, visitors are substantially undervalued, so we wanted to know if road
teams coming off a single loss had any additional value.
While these results conclusively showed that there was value in
betting against tired home
teams, we knew there were additional steps we could take to improve this
betting system.
This year's NHL
Betting Against the Public article details the profitable points for contrarian betting between 2005 and 2011, and teams receiving less than 40 % of moneyline bets had won 75.8 units, or a 1.6 % return on inve
Betting Against the Public article details the profitable points for contrarian
betting between 2005 and 2011, and teams receiving less than 40 % of moneyline bets had won 75.8 units, or a 1.6 % return on inve
betting between 2005 and 2011, and
teams receiving less than 40 % of moneyline
bets had won 75.8 units, or a 1.6 % return on investment.
Before every season, the
team at Sports Insights publishes a series of
Betting Against the Public articles which highlights the sweet spots for contrarian b
Betting Against the Public articles which highlights the sweet spots for contrarian
bettingbetting.
As we expected, this pattern of bettors overvaluing home field advantage is amplified in «must - win» games which creates value
betting against these home
teams.
meanwhile the best
team just drew
against everton... i
bet they couldn't score more because the grass was a shade more greener at the goodison
This causes a false sense of security for bettors and can create excellent value
betting against the nation's top ranked
teams.
Minnesota hasn't received more than 69 % of spread
bets since hiring Zimmer, which is amazing considering they have played
against many
teams that are typically avoided by public bettors including Miami, Oakland, Tampa Bay and Tennessee.
As detailed in our 2011 - 12 NBA
Betting Against the Public article, there is great value betting on teams who are receiving less than 30 % of spread wagers as they have a winning percentage of 50
Betting Against the Public article, there is great value
betting on teams who are receiving less than 30 % of spread wagers as they have a winning percentage of 50
betting on
teams who are receiving less than 30 % of spread wagers as they have a winning percentage of 50.9 %...
Perhaps even more interesting is that two weeks ago the
team at Sports Insights sent out the Kansas City Chiefs (+11.5) as a Best
Bet against the previously undefeated Green Bay Packers, largely because they fit into this historically profitable contrarian play.
The first is that adding a
betting against the public filter definitely enhances the value of
betting on American League
teams during interleague play.
No NFL
team has received more than 89 % of spread
bets since December 7, 2008 when the Patriots -LRB--7) received 91 % of public support
against the Seattle Seahawks.
In fact, we detail this bias in our 2011 - 12
Betting Against the Public article which shows that betting on teams who receive fewer than 30 % of spread wagers have won at 50.9 % over the past eight seasons — and that number jumps to 54.4 % when focusing solely at vi
Betting Against the Public article which shows that
betting on teams who receive fewer than 30 % of spread wagers have won at 50.9 % over the past eight seasons — and that number jumps to 54.4 % when focusing solely at vi
betting on
teams who receive fewer than 30 % of spread wagers have won at 50.9 % over the past eight seasons — and that number jumps to 54.4 % when focusing solely at visitors.
I
bet he even puts Mertesacker back in the
team against Stoke ahead of Paulista whom by the way has been the best CB for us this seasons so far.
Teams receiving less than 50 % of spread
bets have gone 138 - 130 ATS (51.5 %)
against non-conference opponents, but that win rate jumps substantially
against familiar foes.
The
team at SportsInsights.com is analyzing the sports database and updating its regular series of articles on
betting against the public in major league baseball.
Since 2005,
betting against Top - 25
teams that have lost two straight games has now gone 32 - 18 ATS.
In fact, both of these
teams have been amongst the best
teams in baseball to
bet against.
Since we subscribe to a contrarian philosophy and tend to go
against common perception, our belief was that
betting against tired
teams would be a profitable
betting strategy.
This simple strategy encourages bettors to identify the most popular
teams and
bet against them; thereby capitalizing on lines that have been shaded to exploit public perception.
Even if every other AFC East
team started at 2 - 0, I still wouldn't
bet against the Patriots making the playoffs.
Three days before the Notre Dame game, BC coach Dan Henning said that any player who
bet against the Eagles would not be allowed back on the
team.
Middlesex County district attorney Thomas Reilly, a graduate of Boston College Law School, said that two of the players had
bet against their own
team in the Eagles» 45 - 17 loss to Syracuse on Oct. 26; news reports identified those two as sophomore running back Jamall Anderson and junior defensive end Marcus Bembry.
Army at North Texas +10.5, in the Heart of Dallas Bowl: Army was a great
bet against Navy, but this is a huge line
against a North Texas
team that is simply not as bad as it has been in previous seasons.
I know someone that does that, but they seem more happy when they win the money, I'd never
bet against my own
team.