He'll likely be a top - three
betting favorite going forward.
Not exact matches
But when they flash it around like a pervert in the schoolyard, you can
bet your
favorite body part we're
going to say something about it.
Funny thing, virtually the same ingredients including spring onions,
go into one of my
favorite bread recipes, but I'll
bet they don't taste in anyway the same - that's the fun of cooking!
After adding a few filters to
Bet Labs, we found that all
favorites had
gone 76 - 63 ATS (54.7 %) in MNF contests as opposed to the 49.1 % win rate for all other
favorites over that time.
Conference
favorites getting < 33 % of spread
bets have now
gone 69 - 43 ATS historically after Ohio State's easy cover.
We quickly found that
favorites have
gone 203 - 191 (51.5 %) when they received no more than 50 % of spread
bets.
Since 2005,
favorites receiving no more than 40 % of spread
bets have
gone 547 - 503 ATS (52.1 %) during the regular season.
Entering Week 4,
favorites receiving less than 50 % of spread
bets had
gone 19 - 13 ATS (59.4 %) including a 12 - 8 ATS record (60.0 %) in games where the number of
bets was at least the daily average.
The Divisional round
went mostly as expected, with all four
betting favorites advancing.
Since 2005,
favorites receiving less than 25 % of spread
bets have
gone 136 - 98 ATS (58.1 %) during the regular season.
Since 2004,
favorites of 8 or more points receiving 50 % or less of spread
bets have
gone 39 - 28 (58.2 %) ATS with +9.71 units earned and a +14.5 % return on investment (ROI).
My research found that
favorites receiving less than 50 % of spread
bets have
gone 32 - 20 ATS while
favorites receiving less than 40 % of spread
bets have
gone 6 - 2 ATS.
Favorites have gone just 212 - 231 ATS (49.1 %) this season, but favorites receiving less than 50 % of spread bets have gone 44 - 30 ATS
Favorites have
gone just 212 - 231 ATS (49.1 %) this season, but
favorites receiving less than 50 % of spread bets have gone 44 - 30 ATS
favorites receiving less than 50 % of spread
bets have
gone 44 - 30 ATS (59.5 %).
Since 2005, MLB
favorites receiving less than 35 % of moneyline
bets have
gone 564 - 476 with +10.93 units won.
Using our
Bet Labs software, we found that
favorites receiving less than 40 % of moneyline
bets have
gone 35 - 14 with +14.96 units won during the NHL Playoffs.
This season,
favorites receiving less than 50 % of spread
bets have
gone 32 - 20 ATS (61.5 %) with +10.56 units won.
Since 2005,
favorites receiving less than 25 % of spread
bets have
gone 151 - 116 ATS (56.5 %) during the regular season and 9 - 6 ATS (60 %) during the postseason.
Since 2005, home
favorites receiving < 30 % of
bets have now
gone 41 - 30 ATS.
Since 2005, underdogs receiving less than 50 % of spread
bets have
gone 265 - 254 ATS (51.1 %) while
favorites receiving less than 50 % of spread
bets have
gone 96 - 75 ATS (56.1 %).
That said, the Cardinals do fit a number of our previously discussed
betting systems including one that focuses on high - scoring prime time
favorites which has
gone 83 - 47 ATS (63.8 %) with +33.02 units won.
-- In tonight's win - or -
go - home showdown, the Pittsburgh Penguins are currently receiving 44 % of moneyline
bets as -160
favorites against the New York Rangers.
We found that over the past decade, home
favorites receiving less than 40 % of spread
bets have
gone 60 - 37 for +19.8 units and an impressive 20.4 % ROI.
Historically,
favorites have had a much larger edge coming off the short week
going 96 -66-5 ATS, while home teams have
gone 87 -74-5 ATS, and teams getting the minority of
bets have
gone just 77 -84-3 ATS.
It's a small sample size but teams getting less than 40 % of
bets in National Title games have
gone 5 - 1 ATS (dogs 4 - 0 ATS,
favorites 1 - 1 ATS).
The Huskies entered the game as 5 - point
favorites over the Owls at home, so payouts will
go to those who
bet on Temple.
Dating back to the 2005 - 06 season,
favorites getting 65 % of
bets or more in Game 1 have
gone 446 - 330 ATS, covering nearly 57 % of the time and providing over a 10 % return on investment.
If you thought Collin Klein was somehow
going to win the Heisman,
betting him as a +500
favorite at Sportsbook.com would be foolish as he is available at +2000 at Bovada.
Based on this data, the optimal range for
betting against the public during the NHL Playoffs comes at the 40 % threshold where
favorites have
gone 35 - 14 (71.4 %) with +14.96 units won.
I tend to shy away from the
favorites when it comes to
betting statistical leaders, but given the parity at the top of this list, there is value in
going with a guy like Brees or Ryan.
Several months ago, we found that
favorites receiving no more than 40 % of spread
bets have
gone 14 - 5 ATS during college football bowl season.
Using our
Bet Labs software, we found that
favorites receiving no more than 40 % of spread
bets have
gone 83 - 56 ATS (59.7 %) during the NBA playoffs.
Since 2005,
favorites receiving less than 50 % of spread
bets have
gone 115 - 87 ATS (56.9 %) in the NCAA Tournament including a 10 - 5 ATS (66.7 %) record this year.
In fact, we quickly found that
favorites receiving less than 35 % of moneyline
bets have
gone 279 - 187 with +46.11 units won and a 9.9 % return on investment (ROI).
Navy is receiving three - quarters (74 %) of the
bets as home
favorites of -7 points as they
go for 10 wins in a row in the Army - Navy series.
The Wizards haven't been a reliable wager as a
betting favorite in recent weeks
going 1 - 5 SU and ATS in their last six games as one per the OddsShark NBA Database.
With two teams seemingly
going in opposite directions, the Steelers opened as 2.5 - point
favorites at CRIS and have received 87 % of early spread
bets.
-- Via our
Bet Labs software: College football home
favorites receiving less than 30 % of spread
bets have
gone 40 - 29 for +9.1 units and a 13.2 % ROI since 2005 and Illinois almost fit that criteria before closing at 31 % as a 3 - point
favorite (Won and covered).
I normally wouldn't make a
bet like this but all three
favorites are
going against the public: Arsenal (35 %), Chelsea (37 %), and Southampton (31 %).
--
Favorites receiving < 50 % of
bets have been a great
bet in the Round of 32,
going 29 - 17 ATS before this season.
Houston was between a four and five point
favorite prior to kickoff, which means if you were
betting with Kansas City, you could
go from a push to a win, and if you were
betting with Houston, you could avoid a loss at minus four.
Who does the blame
go to when you have 2 rich London clubs that pay top wages, yet one is a
favorite for the league and a good
bet for the CL final and the other is at best considered 3rd place and knockout stages?
Favorites receiving < 50 % of spread
bets went 4 - 1 ATS:
Michigan opened as a 14.5 point
favorite at CRIS and Pinnacle, and in the early
going, 84 % of spread
bets are taking the Wolverines.
With these teams
going on opposite directions, Carolina opened as 3.5 - point
favorites at CRIS and have received 87 % of spread
bets.
Since 2005,
favorites of 8 + points have
gone 38 - 26 ATS (+9.85 units) during the #NBAPlayoffs when receiving less than 50 % of spread
bets.
Using our
Bet Labs software, we found the
favorites of at least 4.5 - points have
gone 278 - 199 ATS (58.3 %) when they receive less than 40 % of spread
bets.
Favorites receiving less than 40 % of spread
bets have
gone 86 - 56 ATS (60.6 %) including a 3 - 0 ATS record during the 2016 postseason.
Since the start of the 2013 season,
favorites receiving less than 35 % of moneyline
bets have
gone 106 - 67 (61.3 %) with a 13.7 % ROI when the closing total is 7.5 or less.
Over the past eleven seasons,
favorites receiving less than 50 % of moneyline
bets had
gone 2,784 - 2,359 (54.1 %) but with a -1.3 % return on investment.
Since 2005,
favorites receiving less than 40 % of spread
bets have
gone 82 - 56 ATS (+21.47 units won) which includes a 2 - 1 mark during the 2015 postseason.