Individual games will lead to profits and losses for market participants (bettors,
the betting public in general, and the sportsbooks), but the long - term will result in a 4.5 % profit margin for the sportsbooks.
Not exact matches
If the
general public (based on Betting Percentage) is on one side of the game, but the point spread moves in the opposite direction, it is often an indicator that «big money» (and most likely «smart money») is taking a position in the direction of the line movement (and opposite to the Pu
public (based on
Betting Percentage) is on one side of the game, but the point spread moves
in the opposite direction, it is often an indicator that «big money» (and most likely «smart money») is taking a position
in the direction of the line movement (and opposite to the
PublicPublic).
Today, the sports markets are more efficient and the
general public seems to play a larger role
in the sports
betting marketplace.
It is those errors
in the line as a game predictor that account for the fact that year
in and year out the Vegas casinos fail to hold their full 4.5 % of the drop
in sprots
betting, and that the numbers indicate that the
general public consistently wins between 51 % and 52 % of the time, and sometimes as much as 53 %, with all bookmaker profits coming from sucker
bets such as teasers, parlays, point buying, and parlay cards.
While Bovada,
in general, shaded most often, Sports Interaction saw the most drastic increase
in shading, culminating with a whopping 52.4 % of NFL games shaded off the market consensus when
public betting is greater than 79 % on one team.
Whether it's due to the meteoric rise of fantasy football, hyping of the sports media or the incredible popularity of football
in general,
public money from casual bettors dominates the NFL
betting market.
In other words, the sportsbooks played on the
public's
general psychological bias towards
betting on the «favorites» to
bet even more money on supposed lopsided games.
The
general public often
bets teams they picked
in their bracket.