Most casual
bettors tend to be reactionary and this week all they will hear is that the Giants season is over after two games.
Many
bettors tend to go off the rails, and desert their disciplined strategy during big losing or winning streaks.
Why the public loves the over: The public is likely to be on the over regardless of who's playing, but
bettors tend to think of Golden State, behind all of their offensive weapons, as a particularly good «over team».
Though most golf
bettors tend to gravitate towards these odds to win or head - to - head matchups, there can also be tremendous value found in prop bets.
The public's behavior during the postseason runs in direct contrast to the regular season where
bettors tend to overwhelmingly favor betting on home teams and favorites.
Consistently betting parlays will cause wild fluctuations of your bankroll, which is why most professional
bettors tend to avoid them.
Casual, recreational
bettors tend to take favorites and they tend to bet them later in the week.
Bettors tend to worry about factors like temperature, and precipitation, but those factors don't always have a tremendous impact on the total.
That said,
bettors tend to overreact to recent events and winning streaks which makes the undefeated Patriots an interesting fade opportunity.
Historically
bettors tend to pound favorites and overs, so seeing this level of public betting on the under comes as a major surprise.
In the past we have discussed how
bettors tend to overvalue ranked teams, and this typically creates value on their opponent.
In the past, we have explained that public
bettors tend to overvalue ranked teams — especially when they're facing an unranked opponent.
Although
bettors tend to overreact and take the teams who impressed in week 1, they have not bought into the Jaguars to this point.
Knowing that
bettors tend to overvalue ranked teams, we found that we could nearly double our return on investment (ROI) by focusing on teams facing a ranked opponent.
We've also noticed that a majority of
bettors tend to take favorites and overs, which makes all the sense in the world.
It's not necessarily that home field advantage isn't valuable in those sports, it's that home field advantage isn't worth as many points on the spread as
bettors tend to believe.
I have also found that
bettors tend to place too much weight on the importance of home - field advantage, which has created additional value on road teams.
We have also found that
bettors tend to overvalue home - field advantage in every sport except for baseball.
We also know that
bettors tend to overreact to recent events, so we wanted to look at situations where the opposing team won their previous game.
Although
bettors tend to overreact when favorites lose, there do seem to be some exceptions.
We have also found that football
bettors tend to place too much weight on the importance of home - field advantage, which has created additional value on road teams — especially if they're on a prolonged road trip.
Square
bettors tend to overreact to recent events, so opportunistic bettors can find tremendous value by taking teams following a loss.
Most uneducated or «square»
bettors tend to overvalue the league's elite which is why there's typically value fading teams atop the standings.
Past research has found that square
bettors tend to place more value on high - powered offenses than stout defenses, and this false perception can easily be exploited.
Sharp
bettors tend to lean towards the Under in these late - series games (same goes for NHL Playoffs), and Unders have gone 23 - 15 in Game 7 since 2005.
Square
bettors tend to overwhelmingly root for winning teams and high - scoring games, and sportsbooks account for these tendencies by shading favorites and overs.
Casual
bettors tend to overwhelmingly take the favorite, but they become increasingly willing to back the underdog in bowl games.
Bovada is a very square sportsbook and they typically offer far better odds on the underdog, however, as we explained in a recent article, square
bettors tend to gravitate towards underdogs during the postseason.
It's well - known that
bettors tend to prefer taking overs, and that's especially true as more casual bettors enter the marketplace during the postseason.
Historically we have found that
bettors tend to hammer favorites, with a majority of spread bets taking the chalk in 82.36 % games over the past twelve seasons.
That's interesting because
bettors tend to place wagers based on the results of their bracket, and people love picking upsets in the earlier rounds.
We have actually discovered that
bettors tend to greatly overvalue teams in these crucial, late season games.
Before the start of the season, we explained how
bettors tend to overvalue ranked teams and detailed a system that had posted a 353 - 271 ATS record with +64.06 units won.
Historically we have found that a majority of public
bettors tend to hammer favorites and overs.
Casual
bettors tend to believe that rivalry games are always competitive, so they are increasingly willing to take the underdog in these matchups.
We have also found that casual
bettors tend to overvalue the importance of home court advantage, which has created additional value on visitors.
Not exact matches
Most public
bettors still
tend to back favorites, and when mixed with the unpredictability of the bowl season, unpopular underdogs
tend to cover more often than not.
Bettors often
tend to overreact when a player is hot.
Casual
bettors love taking favorites, so it's hardly surprisingly that these super teams
tend to receive overwhelming public support.
Though preseason games
tend to be rather unpredictable, that doesn't necessarily translate to low popularity among sports
bettors.
Most contrarian strategies
tend to highlight value on the underdog, but
bettors should be laying the points and taking Golden State -7.5.
Confirmation bias is a serious problem for many novice
bettors, who
tend to only recall information that reaffirms their preexisting beliefs.
The public typically will bet overs which creates value for sharper
bettors who
tend to lean towards the under.
Most uneducated or «square»
bettors will overreact to recent results and
tend to overvalue the league's elite.
The public
tends to be very reactionary and, with the ever - growing popularity of football, sharp
bettors can take advantage of these squares.
And
bettors do
tend to have some things in common: a degree of sports - obsessiveness (often an athletic past cut short in college by a lack of talent), a community in which to share their betting tales (usually a fraternity house) and a little resourcefulness.
Square
bettors will
tend to gravitate towards big name schools like Florida, so oddsmakers like Sportsbook.com will shade their lines to account for the inevitable influx of public money.
With the familiarity between divisional opponents, those games
tend to be closer and by avoiding those games, Over
bettors have made a nice profit this season.
Teams
tend to regress to the mean and public
bettors chasing the Jets first half ATS success are likely to be disappointed over the team's final seven games.