Graph with high negative correlation
between the Fed funds rate and the spread between 10 and 5 - year Treasury yields.
On orthodox policy: I'm not sure there is that much difference
between Fed funds at 0.25 % and 0.10 %, except that money market funds will find themselves in further trouble, as yields are too low to credit anything.
The correlation
between Fed funds and Moody's Baa series was pretty small during that time period, whether the fed funds rate was rising or falling.
The following chart shows the relationship
between the Fed funds rate and the personal savings rate in the United States:
Not exact matches
As universally expected, the Federal Reserve left things as they were after yesterday's Federal Open Market Committee meeting: the target for the
Fed funds rate stays
between 0 and 0.25 per cent and the bank will continue to buy $ 40 billion - worth of mortgage - backed securities, plus $ 45 billion of longer - term treasuries per month.
Chart 2 shows the historical positive correlation
between changes in the
Fed Funds rate and the profits cycle.
«Since 1948, the average difference
between the year - on - year change in inflation and
fed funds has been 1.3 percentage points.
The bottom line on this is that there's a good chance mortgage rates will climb
between now and the end of 2015, especially if the
Fed lifts the
funds rate in the fall.
The
fed funds market, greatly shrunk in size, now mainly consists of transactions
between GSEs — chiefly Federal Home Loan Banks — and a few banks, mainly foreign.
The OCC's findings are consistent with more recent surveys: The
Fed's October survey of senior U.S. loan officers found a growing number loosening standards for commercial and industrial loans, often by narrowing the spread
between the interest rate on the loan and the cost of
funds to the bank.
The
Fed governor also made a comparison
between the current unemployment and inflation rates with the 2004 - 07 period, when the US economy was near full employment and inflation was higher than 2 percent, thereby making the point that policymakers should hold on to the current federal
funds rate and remain extremely cautious when it comes to raising it.
Presented to the right is a chart of the difference
between the 10 - year Treasury bond rate (long rates) and the
Fed Funds rate (short rates) over the last 50 years and last 7 recessions.
With a 2.00 %
Fed Funds rate, the 2 - year Treasury would be expected to yield
between 2.25 % and 2.50 %.
Working in the other direction, the investment of the US dollar proceeds of foreign exchange intervention by Asian central banks was supportive of the US Treasury market, as was the very wide spread
between 10 - year Treasury yields and the
Fed funds rate, particularly in light of the
Fed's reaffirmation of its intention to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance (Table 5, Graph 12).
The previous Labour Government launched the Infant
Feeding Initiative in 1999, as part of the government's commitment to improving health inequalities and
between 1999 and 2002 nearly # 3m was spent on
funding 79 different projects.
At Long Island Cares / Harry Chapin Food Bank, the
funds will help
feed senior citizens who have to make a choice
between buying food or paying the rent, chief executive Paule Pachter said.
Between 1992 and 2011, the program
fed more than $ 50 million to archeology and environmental research efforts, helping
fund about 200 projects.
The 6 - month change in employment (using Household Survey data) had turned negative and the spread
between 2 - year Treasury yields and the
Fed Funds rates fell to less than -1.3 percentage points.
As you can see, the difference
between the high and low for
Fed funds on a given day can be substantial.
In December 2012, the
Fed offered forward guidance when it said that the
Fed funds rate would remain
between zero and 25 basis points until the unemployment rate dropped below 6.5 %, as long as inflation was projected to remain below 2.5 % and long term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
The bottom line on this is that there's a good chance mortgage rates will climb
between now and the end of 2015, especially if the
Fed lifts the
funds rate in the fall.
At Wednesday's
Fed meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to increase the
Fed Funds Rate to a range
between 1.0 and 1.25 percent.
The
Fed then raised the
Fed funds rate significantly
between July 2004 and July 2006.
A short term result of the
Fed's continuing increase in the
Fed funds rate is a flatter yield curve as seen in the chart of the spread
between the 10 - year and two - year treasury notes.
While the difference
between the 2 - year and 10 - year yield has narrowed since the
Fed's Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal
funds rate twice in the past year, it is still positive.
This covers the period from the final aggressive 75 basis point move by the FOMC, where there were expectations of a 1 %
fed funds rate by year end 2008, to now, where the rate at year end is
between 2.5 - 3.0 %.
A similar pace of increases
between 2003 and 2006 most certainly did cool the economy, and the rise in short - term rates (and the effects of
Fed policy on
funding costs in global markets) may have precipitated the early days of the subprime ARM crisis, when rates were being adjusted sharply upward, causing payment shock for borrowers.
As long as they can maintain the spread
between deposit rates and lending rates, they're often willing to change the levels (though you'll notice that there's currently still a wide spread
between LIBOR and
Fed Funds here).
Between 1971 and 2002, the
fed -
funds rate and the mortgage rate moved in lockstep.
It seems crazy to me that the
fed funds rate is currently 1.25 % but my interest rates are
between 6.5 and 8 %.
«The fixed - COFI mortgage exploits the often - present prepayment - risk wedge
between the fixed - rate mortgage rate and the estimated cost of
funds index mortgage rate,» according to a paper written by Federal Reserve Board senior adviser Wayne Passmore and Alexander von Hafften, a senior research assistant at the
Fed.
Nonetheless, the
Fed is likely to change the way it conducts monetary policy in the future, avoiding as much as possible episodes of sharp & prolonged discrepancies
between market rates and the
Fed funds rate (remember the
Fed funds rate at 1 % for... months!).
The
Fed funds rate at one point six percent give or take, is well below the neutral rate, which is something
between two and a half and three percent.
Analyze the spread
between Eurodollar futures and
Fed Fund futures over time - from one week to one year.