Ray: To what extent does the disequilibrium
between atmospheric warming and oceanic warming suppress rainfall?
From it, I'll only address the SkS «thermal inertia» quote, which Victor took to imply a lag in response: the proposed 21 - year delay
between atmospheric warming and oceanic warming.
Not exact matches
The most important of these was an apparent mismatch
between the instrumental surface temperature record (which showed significant
warming over recent decades, consistent with a human impact) and the balloon and satellite
atmospheric records (which showed little of the expected
warming).
That said, the efficiency of the
atmospheric heat engine is rather low; from time to time, inefficiency causes the disparity
between the
warm source and the cold sink to increase.
In particular, the connection
between rising concentrations of
atmospheric greenhouse gases and the increased
warming of the global climate system is more certain than ever.
«Using a numerical climate model we found that sulfate reductions over Europe
between 1980 and 2005 could explain a significant fraction of the amplified
warming in the Arctic region during that period due to changes in long - range transport,
atmospheric winds and ocean currents.
This so - called constant - composition commitment results as temperatures gradually equilibrate with the current
atmospheric radiation imbalance, and has been estimated at
between 0.3 °C and 0.9 °C
warming over the next century.»
Chen, K., Gawarkiewicz, G. G., Lentz, S. J. & Bane, J. M. Diagnosing the
warming of the Northeastern US Coastal Ocean in 2012: a linkage
between the
atmospheric jet stream variability and ocean response.
By showing that (a) there are no common physical laws
between the
warming phenomenon in glass houses and the fictitious
atmospheric greenhouse effects, (b) there are no calculations to determine an average surface temperature of a planet, (c) the frequently mentioned difference of 33 C is a meaningless number calculated wrongly, (d) the formulas of cavity radiation are used inappropriately, (e) the assumption of a radiative balance is unphysical, (f) thermal conductivity and friction must not be set to zero, the
atmospheric greenhouse conjecture is falsified
For example, in Earth
atmospheric circulation (such as Hadley cells) transport heat
between the
warmer equatorial regions to the cool polar regions and this circulation pattern not only determines the temperature distribution, but also sets which regions on Earth are dry or rainy and how clouds form over the planet.
The El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycle refers to a fluctuation
between unusually
warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) waters in the tropical Pacific, with associated changes in
atmospheric circulation (the Southern Oscillation)(Figure 2 - 5).
-- The El Niño - Southern Oscillation cycle refers to a fluctuation
between unusually
warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) waters in the tropical Pacific, with associated changes in
atmospheric circulation (the Southern Oscillation)(Figure 2 - 5).
One recent study examining the Palaeocene — Eocene Thermal Maximum (about 55 million years ago), during which the planet
warmed 5 - 9 °C, found that «At accepted values for the climate sensitivity to a doubling of the
atmospheric CO2 concentration, this rise in CO2 can explain only
between 1 and 3.5 °C of the
warming inferred from proxy records» (Zeebe 2009).
So the mechanism should cause a decline in skin temperature gradients with increased cloud cover (more downward heat radiation), and there should also be a decline in the difference
between cool skin layer and ocean bulk temperatures - as less heat escapes the ocean under increased
atmospheric warming.
Working from detailed sketches in a painterly, expressionist style and with a primarily figurative subject matter, the artist skilfully transitions
between warm and cold palettes, creating deeply
atmospheric canvases.
But tremendous natural variability occurs in the large - scale
atmospheric circulation during all seasons, and even in summer the links
between Arctic
warming and mid-latitude weather are not supported by other observational studies.
By showing that (a) there are no common physical laws
between the
warming phenomenon in glass houses and the fictitious
atmospheric greenhouse effects, (b) there are no calculations to determine an average surface temperature of a planet, (c) the frequently mentioned difference of 33 C is a meaningless number calculated wrongly, (d) the formulas of cavity radiation are used inappropriately, (e) the assumption of a radiative balance is unphysical, (f) thermal conductivity and friction must not be set to zero, the
atmospheric greenhouse conjecture is falsified
Now, if there's a single take - away from this summary, it would be that the science on the relationship
between fossil fuel combustion, rising
atmospheric carbon dioxide, and global
warming and climate change was really settled by 1979.
In Relationships
between Water Vapor Path and Precipitation over the Tropical Oceans, Bretherton et al showed that although the Western Pacific
warmer surface waters increased the water in the atmosphere compared to the Eastern Pacific, rainfall was lower in the Western Pacific compared to the Eastern Pacific for equal amounts of water vapor in the
atmospheric column — e.g., about 10mm / day in the Western Pacific, versus ~ 20mm / day in the Eastern Pacific at 55 mm water vapor, the peak of the distribution of water vapor amounts.
The link
between increased
atmospheric greenhouse gas and global temperatures underlies the theory of global
warming, explained the authors.
[UPDATE 3/6, 1 p.m.:] Isaac Held, a climate modeler at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., responded today with some caution about seeking relationships
between the ocean and
atmospheric changes around the tropics, and also drawing conclusions about their relationship to global
warming.
Redistribution of heat (such as vertical transport
between the surface and the deeper ocean) could cause some surface and
atmospheric temperature change that causes some global average
warming or cooling.
Neither volcanoes nor a
warming ocean would suck up
atmospheric oxygen... As a side remark: the subtle difference
between the rise in CO2 and the equivalent drop in O2 permits to estimate the partitioning of the ocean and land sinks of CO2.
The abstract below is quite clear in finding no evident relationship
between ice loss and
atmospheric or marine factors related to greenhouse - driven global
warming:
Note that he used the past in his sentence «satellite data showed no
warming» and then he goes on «The report showed that selective corrections to the
atmospheric data could lead to some
warming, thus reducing the conflict
between observations and models descriptions of what greenhouse
warming should look like.»
No, you miss the point about the Trenberth «Travesty» statement, it means that the claims in the field that they had detected the relationship
between atmospheric [CO2] and temperature, and from this could predict that a doubling of
atmospheric CO2 would cause catastrophic
warming were unsupported by the evidence.
While the conditions in the geological past are useful indicators in suggesting climate and
atmospheric conditions only vary within a a certain range (for example, that life has existed for over 3 billion years indicates that the oxygen level of the atmosphere has stayed
between about 20 and 25 % throughout that time), I also think some skeptics are too quick to suggest the lack of correlation
between temperature and CO2 during the last 550 million years falsifies the link
between CO2 and
warming (too many differences in conditions to allow any such a conclusion to be drawn — for example the Ordovician with high CO2 and an ice age didn't have any terrestrial life).
We know the planet will
warm between about 1.5 and 4.5 °C in response to the increased greenhouse effect from a doubling of
atmospheric carbon dioxide (the «climate sensitivity»).
By contrast,
atmospheric temperatures measured from weather satellites show only insignificant
warming between 1978 and 1997 — as do the independent data from weather balloons around the world.
Recent research has yielded insights into the connections
between global
warming and the factors that cause tornadoes and severe thunderstorms (such as
atmospheric instability and increases in wind speed with altitude7, 8).
This strong correlation
between atmospheric temperature and the level of carbon dioxide is highly suggestive, but does not prove on its own, that rising levels of carbon dioxide are causing
warming.
Judith I understand the APS actually wrote to IPCC questioning on what basis they determined that certainty of the connection
between rising concentrations of
atmospheric greenhouse gases and the increased
warming of the global climate system is INCREASING.
The statement that the connection
between rising concentrations of
atmospheric greenhouse gases and the increased
warming of the global climate system is more certain than ever is nonsense.
This sentence seems to be an endorsement of alarmism: «In particular, the connection
between rising concentrations of
atmospheric greenhouse gases and the increased
warming of the global climate system is more certain than ever.»
Rather than questioning the primary role of the
atmospheric CO2, our modelling results allow us to put forward that the
atmospheric CO2 is not the whole story and that, owing to the overwhelming effect and interplay
between the paleogeography, the water cycle and the seasonal response, the climate system may undergo subtle climatic changes (as the 4 °C global
warming simulated here
between the Aptian and the Maastrichtian runs).
Clearly a high
atmospheric CO2 does not drive global
warming and there is no correlation
between global temperature and
atmospheric CO2.»
And we also know that the correlation
between global average temperature and
atmospheric CO2 is statistically not very robust, so that something else must also «be at work» to cause the gradual
warming (or «slow thaw», as you've dubbed it).
«The authors write that «the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation,» whereby «on a timescale of two to seven years, the eastern equatorial Pacific climate varies
between anomalously cold (La Niña) and
warm (El Niño) conditions,» and that «these swings in temperature are accompanied by changes in the structure of the subsurface ocean, variability in the strength of the equatorial easterly trade winds, shifts in the position of
atmospheric convection, and global teleconnection patterns associated with these changes that lead to variations in rainfall and weather patterns in many parts of the world,» which end up affecting «ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide.»»
I don't care what physicists say about CO2, historical & modern data says there is no correlation
between atmospheric CO2 levels & temperature, except in that
warming raises CO2 levels.
According to Klotzbach et al. (2010), which the Watts paper references, there should be an amplification factor of ~ 1.1
between surface and lower troposphere temperatures over land (greater
atmospheric warming having to do with water vapor amplification).
(Fingerprint studies draw conclusions about human causation that can be deduced from: (a) how the Earth
warms in the upper and lower atmosphere, (b)
warming in the oceans, (c) night - time vs day - time temperature increases, (d) energy escaping from the upper atmosphere versus energy trapped, (e) isotopes of CO2 in the atmosphere and coral that distinguish fossil CO2 from non-fossil CO2, (f) the height of the boundary
between the lower and upper atmosphere, and (g)
atmospheric oxygen levels decrease as CO2 levels increase.
Moreover, the two ISPM statements above refer to the vague term «
atmospheric warming» without even distinguishing
between the troposphere and stratosphere.
The climate science is indisputable... the known physics requires that each tonne of new CO2 emissions will have a smaller impact than the previous tonne... there is no escaping the actual logarithmic relationship
between atmospheric CO2 and global
warming...
Average planetary temperatures increased by a «net» of 0.7 degrees C (1.3 F)
between 1900 and 2000, as
atmospheric carbon dioxide levels continued to rise — but not in a straight line: they rose 1900 - 1940, cooled 1940 - 1975 and
warmed 1975 - 1995.
Here, we have shown that this
warming was associated and presumably initiated by a major increase in the westerly to south - westerly wind north of Norway leading to enhanced
atmospheric and ocean heat transport from the comparatively
warm North Atlantic Current through the passage
between northern Norway and Spitsbergen into the Barents Sea.»
relationship
between global
atmospheric warming and CO2 emissions.
Surely these differences would be more significant if some showed cooling, other Global temperature measurements such as Radiosonde, SST's and the proxy
atmospheric water vapor also indicate
warming, so inconsistancies
between the indexs surel are more a technical issue.
How hurricanes develop also depends on how the local atmosphere responds to changes in local sea surface temperatures, and this
atmospheric response depends critically on the cause of the change.23, 24 For example, the atmosphere responds differently when local sea surface temperatures increase due to a local decrease of particulate pollution that allows more sunlight through to
warm the ocean, versus when sea surface temperatures increase more uniformly around the world due to increased amounts of human - caused heat - trapping gases.18, 25,26,27 So the link
between hurricanes and ocean temperatures is complex.
(c) It may also be objected that the
atmospheric circulation depends on the difference of temperature
between low and high latitudes and, hence, should be weakened instead of strengthened by a
warming in the arctic.
Discrepancies in tropical upper tropospheric
warming between atmospheric circulation models and satellites, Stephen Po - Chedley and Qiang Fu, 10/2012.