The difference
between budget estimates and actual income and spending is called the variance.
The above two accounting differences explain about $ 30 billion of the difference
between the Budget estimates of spending and those in the Main Estimates.
Not exact matches
But an analysis by the non-partisan Congressional
Budget Office
estimates that the tax credits could lower the cost of insuring employees by
between eight and 11 percent.
In the end, Athens»
budget was
estimated between $ 10 billion and $ 15 billion, while Beijing's expenses totalled $ 40 billion.
Metzger's
estimates suggest that, spread over three decades, the project would cost
between 3 - 12 % of NASA's current
budget annually, though the plan also depends on investment from private space operators.
The parliamentary
budget office
estimates spending to date has boosted the economy by 0.1 per cent in each fiscal year and added
between 9,600 and 11,100 jobs over the last 12 months.
Askari noted the discrepancy
between the
estimates is mostly due to the fact the PBO used a higher projected interest rate for its calculation than the
budget predicted.
The Main
Estimates would provide reconciliation between the Budget expenditure estimates for the upcoming fiscal year and the Main Estimates for
Estimates would provide reconciliation
between the
Budget expenditure
estimates for the upcoming fiscal year and the Main Estimates for
estimates for the upcoming fiscal year and the Main
Estimates for
Estimates for the year.
Before attempting to reconcile the
Estimates to
Budget, there needs to be a reconciliation
between the
Estimates granted during the fiscal year to what was actually used.
The Government used to publish a reconciliation
between the
Estimates and
Budget.
With the upcoming tabling of the 2013
Budget, there will again be major differences
between the Main
Estimates and the
Budget for total spending.
This is legitimate, so there will always be some difference
between the
Budget and the Main
Estimates.
However, regardless of any changes made, a detailed reconciliation of the differences
between the
Estimates and the
Budget is essential.
As noted above, the
Estimates for 2013 - 14 do not include any Supplementary
Estimates, which should reduce the difference
between the
Budget / final results and
Estimates for that fiscal year.
This note focuses on the changes
between the
estimates presented in the January 2009
Budget and the Seventh Report (Table 1).
We, along with others, have argued for more consistency
between the
Estimates and the
Budget, but to no avail.
And, since the 2007
Budget, no reconciliation
between the
Estimates and
Budget numbers has been provided.
We have documented the differences
between the Main
Estimates and
Budget / Update in previous blogs (1) and have encouraged the Government to take steps to make the
Estimates more comparable in concept and coverage to the
Budget / Update and to provide reconciliations of any remaining differences.
The issue here is the relationship
between the
Budget and the Main
Estimates.
It is doubtful that the recent classification changes announced by the Department of Finance will be reflected in the Main
Estimates, thereby increasing the confusion
between spending in the Main
Estimates and in the
Budget and related documents.
We believe that some of the differences can be resolved quite quickly and would eliminate much of the confusion
between the
Estimates and the
Budget.
In previous blogs, we have detailed the differences in concepts and coverage
between Budget expenses and Main
Estimates spending.
This reduces the difference
between the Main
Estimates and Public Accounts /
Budget / Updates.
It is also recommend that the Minister of Finance provide a detailed reconciliation in the upcoming
budget on the differences between the Estimates and the B
budget on the differences
between the
Estimates and the
BudgetBudget.
This will improve transparency
between the
Estimates and the
Budget and lead to a better understanding by Parliamentarians and Canadians on how much the government intends to spend in the upcoming fiscal year.
The current government has provided few reconciliations
between the
Budget spending projections and Main
Estimates and none
between the fall update projections and the Main
Estimates..
The single largest «restraint» measure «not» announced in
Budget 2013 was an increase in the «lapse», which resulted in an
estimated «savings» of
between $ 2 to $ 3 billion (1) per year.
We
estimate that balancing the
budget in ten years would require savings of
between $ 7 trillion and $ 10 trillion, while just stabilizing the debt at its already high level would require $ 5.4 trillion to $ 8 trillion.
When
Budget 2014 was tabled before Main
Estimates 2014 - 15, we were naively hoping that the President of the Treasury Board would provide a detailed reconciliation
between spending in the Main
Estimates and spending in the
Budget for 2014 - 15.
The bipartisan, Washington, D.C. - based Committee for a Responsible Federal
Budget (CRFB)
estimates that Trump's plan could add
between $ 3 trillion and $ 7 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade, stating emphatically that «America can't afford» it.
This week the Congressional
Budget Office (CBO) said it
estimated the deficit to surge over $ 1 trillion this year and average $ 1.2 trillion each subsequent year
between 2019 and 2028, for a total of $ 12.4 trillion.
As noted above, most of the difference
between the
Budget and the
Estimates relates to differences in scope.
A major source of confusion
between the spending numbers included in the
Estimates and those in the
Budget relates to the differences in the scope and accounting methods used in the two series.
Table 4 summarizes the differences
between the
Estimates for 2010 - 11 and those for 2011 - 12 tabled to date and the June 2011
Budget expense projections for the same years.
This note has attempted to reconcile the differences
between the
Estimates and June 2011
Budget projections for both 2010 - 11 and 2011 - 12.
For 2011 - 12, the difference
between the
Estimates tabled to date and the June 2011
Budget projections for total expenses is $ 28.6 billion, an extremely large difference in historical terms.
Parliamentarians and the public are currently in the dark about the relationship
between the
Estimates and the
Budget spending / expense projections.
What is even more puzzling is that while the President of the Treasury Board claims control over spending by pointing to the decline in the
Estimates of $ 10.4 billion, or 4 per cent, the June 2011
Budget shows an increase of $ 9.7 billion, or 3.6 per cent, in expenses
between 2010 - 11 and 2011 - 12.
This results in a difference of about $ 2.5 billion
between the accrual
budget projections and the cash - based
Estimates.
The Update also included a large number of spending initiatives (about $ 10 billion over six years), thereby ensuring that these initiatives would be included in Main
Estimates for 2018 - 19 as part of efforts to increase transparency and accountability
between the
budget expenses and the Main
Estimates expenditures.
As a result, the final deficit outcome for 2010 - 11 could be
between $ 3 and $ 6 billion lower - than -
estimated in the March 2011
Budget.
By not reconciling the
Estimates to the June 2011 Budget, Parliamentarians are left in the dark about the relationship between these two estimates for spending for 2
Estimates to the June 2011
Budget, Parliamentarians are left in the dark about the relationship
between these two
estimates for spending for 2
estimates for spending for 2011 - 12.
This would eliminate almost 90 per cent of the difference
between the
Estimates and the
Budget.
Yet one knows how much future Supplementary
Estimates for 2011 - 12 will increased the
Estimates for 2011 - 12, especially given the large difference in the relationship
between the
Estimates and the
Budget for 2011 - 12.
Unfortunately, these improvements were not mirrored by changes in the way spending in the
Estimates is presented and this has made comparisons to the
Budget more and more difficult and the relationship
between the two less relevant.
No reconciliation
between the Main
Estimates spending number and the
budget forecast was provided.
The Committee for a Responsible Federal
Budget estimates that expiring the individual tax cuts in the bill hides
between $ 570 billion and $ 725 billion of potential costs.
Having the same universe for both the
Budget and the
Estimates would eliminate most of the difference
between the two sets of spending numbers.
The
estimated budget for the new carrier runs
between $ 4 billion and $ 10 billion.
The present inconsistencies
between the
Estimates, Public Accounts and
Budget is confusing and misleading to Parliamentarians, financial commentators and the public at large.