A recent paper by Lindzen and Choi in GRL (2009)(LC09) purported to demonstrate that climate had a strong negative feedback and that climate models are quite wrong in their relationships
between changes in surface temperature and corresponding changes in outgoing radiation escaping to space.
An international team of university and NASA scientists examined the relationship
between changes in surface temperature and vegetation growth from 45 degrees north latitude to the Arctic Ocean.
Not exact matches
The effects of wind
changes, which were found to potentially increase
temperatures in the Southern Ocean
between 660 feet and 2,300 feet below the
surface by 2 °C, or nearly 3.6 °F, are over and above the ocean warming that's being caused by the heat - trapping effects of greenhouse gases.
One could assume that there was minimal global mean
surface temperature change between 1750 and 1850, as some datasets suggest, and compare the 1850 - 2000
temperature change with the full 1750 - 2000 forcing estimate, as
in my paper and Otto et al..
Hi Andrew, Paper you may have, but couldn't find on «The phase relation
between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global
temperature» CO2 lagging temp
change, which really turns the entire AGW argument on its head: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112001658 Highlights: ►
Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 11 — 12 months behind changes in global sea surface temperature ► Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emi
Changes in global atmospheric CO2 are lagging 11 — 12 months behind
changes in global sea surface temperature ► Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emi
changes in global sea
surface temperature ►
Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking changes in human emi
Changes in atmospheric CO2 are not tracking
changes in human emi
changes in human emissions.
Hence, relatively small exchanges of heat
between the atmosphere and ocean can cause significant
changes in surface temperature.
ENSO events, for example, can warm or cool ocean
surface temperatures through exchange of heat
between the
surface and the reservoir stored beneath the oceanic mixed layer, and by
changing the distribution and extent of cloud cover (which influences the radiative balance
in the lower atmosphere).
ENSO events, for example, can warm or cool ocean
surface temperatures through exchange of heat
between the
surface and the reservoir stored beneath the oceanic mixed layer, and by
changing the distribution and extent of cloud cover (which influences the radiative balance
in the lower atmosphere).
The significant difference
between the observed decrease of the CO2 sink estimated by the inversion (0.03 PgC / y per decade) and the expected increase due solely to rising atmospheric CO2 -LRB--0.05 PgC / y per decade) indicates that there has been a relative weakening of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink (0.08 PgC / y per decade) due to
changes in other atmospheric forcing (winds,
surface air
temperature, and water fluxes).
The paper he wrote together with Friis - Christensen
in which he found a correlation
between solar activity and clouds had a «slight» flaw: it ignored that the period of the study coincided with a big El Nino, and that large scale
changes in ocean
surface temperature are going to have an effect on cloud formation.
Within the troposphere and
between that and the
surface, convection (and at the
surface, conduction and molecular mass diffusion) are also important — these also respond to
changes in temperature so that an imbalance causes a
temperature change that causes the imbalance to decay.
Before allowing the
temperature to respond, we can consider the forcing at the tropopause (TRPP) and at TOA, both reductions
in net upward fluxes (though at TOA, the net upward LW flux is simply the OLR); my point is that even without direct solar heating above the tropopause, the forcing at TOA can be less than the forcing at TRPP (as explained
in detail for CO2
in my 348, but
in general, it is possible to bring the net upward flux at TRPP toward zero but even with saturation at TOA, the nonzero skin
temperature requires some nonzero net upward flux to remain — now it just depends on what the net fluxes were before we made the
changes, and whether the proportionality of forcings at TRPP and TOA is similar if the effect has not approached saturation at TRPP); the forcing at TRPP is the forcing on the
surface + troposphere, which they must warm up to balance, while the forcing difference
between TOA and TRPP is the forcing on the stratosphere; if the forcing at TRPP is larger than at TOA, the stratosphere must cool, reducing outward fluxes from the stratosphere by the same total amount as the difference
in forcings
between TRPP and TOA.
This is the extremely close correlation
between the
changes in the mean
surface temperature and the small
changes in the rotational velocity of the Earth
in the past 150 years (see Fig. 2.2 of / / www.fao.org/DOCREP/005/Y2787E/y2787e03.htm), which has been ignored by the mainstream climatologists.
Here we would like to try to distinguish
between warming
in the nocturnal boundary layer due to a redistribution of heat and warming due to the accumulation of heat... It is likely that the observed warming
in minimum
temperature, whether caused by additional greenhouse forcing or land use
changes or other land
surface dynamics, is reflecting a redistribution of heat by turbulence - not an accumulation of heat.
The
surface temperature responds to energy transfer
between the oceans and atmosphere which varies dynamically as a result of
changes in sea
surface temperature.
Determining the mechanisms and feedbacks involved
in climate
change at the end of the last ice age therefore requires an understanding of the relationship
between the southern margin ice retreat and connected meltwater events to atmospheric and sea
surface temperatures, ice - rafting Heinrich events, sea level rise, and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.
The overall level of consistency
between attribution results derived from different models (as shown
in Figure 9.9), and the ability of climate models to simulate large - scale
temperature changes during the 20th century (Figures 9.5 and 9.6), indicate that such model differences are likely to have a relatively small impact on attribution results of large - scale
temperature change at the
surface.
By comparing modelled and observed
changes in such indices, which include the global mean
surface temperature, the land - ocean
temperature contrast, the
temperature contrast
between the NH and SH, the mean magnitude of the annual cycle
in temperature over land and the mean meridional
temperature gradient
in the NH mid-latitudes, Braganza et al. (2004) estimate that anthropogenic forcing accounts for almost all of the warming observed
between 1946 and 1995 whereas warming
between 1896 and 1945 is explained by a combination of anthropogenic and natural forcing and internal variability.
There is a pretty clear correlation
between the ENSO
changes and global average
surface temperatures in all
temperature sets.
This can be affected by warming
temperatures, but also by
changes in snowfall, increases in solar radiation absorption due to a decrease in cloud cover, and increases in the water vapor content of air near the earth's surface.2, 14,15,16,17 In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline in cloud cover and precipitation.
in snowfall, increases
in solar radiation absorption due to a decrease in cloud cover, and increases in the water vapor content of air near the earth's surface.2, 14,15,16,17 In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline in cloud cover and precipitation.
in solar radiation absorption due to a decrease
in cloud cover, and increases in the water vapor content of air near the earth's surface.2, 14,15,16,17 In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline in cloud cover and precipitation.
in cloud cover, and increases
in the water vapor content of air near the earth's surface.2, 14,15,16,17 In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline in cloud cover and precipitation.
in the water vapor content of air near the earth's
surface.2, 14,15,16,17
In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline in cloud cover and precipitation.
In Cordillera Blanca, Peru, for example, one study of glacier retreat
between 1930 and 1950 linked the retreat to a decline
in cloud cover and precipitation.
in cloud cover and precipitation.18
Relationships
between the
change in net top - of - atmosphere radiative flux, N, and global - mean
surface - air -
temperature change, ΔT, after an instantaneous quadrupling of CO2.
The
surface temperature changes are the result of both cloud and water vapour
change and
changes in heat flux
between ocean and atmosphere.
Changes in global
surface temperature between 1900 and 2003 associated with the long - term global warming trend
in two different datasets, GISTEMP and ERSST.
Even while identifying some of the observed
change in climatic behaviour, such as a 0.4 C increase
in surface temperature over the past century, or about 1 mm per year sea level rise
in Northern Indian Ocean, or wider variation
in rainfall patterns, the document notes that no firm link
between the do...
This pattern of
temperature change helps account for the discrepancy
between trends
in MSU 2R and
surface air
temperatures.
The climate shift of 1978 manifests as a strong lift
in 200hPa
temperature globally with the most extreme
change at about 30 ° of latitude
in both hemispheres, a pronounced fall
in sea level pressure
in the south East Pacific, a jump
in sea
surface temperature in the tropics, the transition
between solar cycle 20 and 21 and a hike
in the aa index of geomagnetic activity that has slowly sunk along with 200hpa
temperature from that time forward.
So it's all gases at greatest density will be doing the same thing around the planet at the same time (*) and as these
change with differences
in density
in the play
between gravity and pressure and kinetic and potential from greatest near the
surface to more rarified, less dense and absent any kinetic to write home about the higher one goes, then, energy conservation intact, the hotter will rise and cool because losing kinetic energy means losing
temperature, thus cooling they which began with the closest
in density and kinetic energy as a sort of band of brothers near the
surface will rise and cool at the same time whereupon they'll all come down together colder but wiser that great heights don't make for more comfort and giving up their heat will sink displacing the hotter now
in their place when they first went travelling.
Due to the
surface air
temperature being tied to the sea
surface temperature any
change in the resistor efficiency of the air will attempt to prevent that equilibrium
between sea and air.
In this analysis I assumed a 4 - month lag between changes in ENSO and changes in global surface temperature, consistent with the results in Foster & Rahmstorf (2011
In this analysis I assumed a 4 - month lag
between changes in ENSO and changes in global surface temperature, consistent with the results in Foster & Rahmstorf (2011
in ENSO and
changes in global surface temperature, consistent with the results in Foster & Rahmstorf (2011
in global
surface temperature, consistent with the results
in Foster & Rahmstorf (2011
in Foster & Rahmstorf (2011).
Also Wentz neglects the fact that small
changes in relative humidity or difference
between surface and near air
temperatures can result
in large
changes in evaporation rates based on their equation (1) which determines evaporation rate.
We present an analysis to illustrate why
temperature values at specific levels will depend on wind speed, and with the same boundary layer heat content
change, trends
in temperature should be expected to be different at every height near the
surface when the winds are light, as well as different
between light wind and stronger wind nights.
In the opinion of the panel, the disparity between satellite and surface temperature trends during 1979 — 98 in no way invalidates the conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC, 1996) that global surface temperature has warmed substantially since the beginning of the twentieth centur
In the opinion of the panel, the disparity
between satellite and
surface temperature trends during 1979 — 98
in no way invalidates the conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC, 1996) that global surface temperature has warmed substantially since the beginning of the twentieth centur
in no way invalidates the conclusion of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change report (IPCC, 1996) that global
surface temperature has warmed substantially since the beginning of the twentieth century.
How hurricanes develop also depends on how the local atmosphere responds to
changes in local sea
surface temperatures, and this atmospheric response depends critically on the cause of the
change.23, 24 For example, the atmosphere responds differently when local sea
surface temperatures increase due to a local decrease of particulate pollution that allows more sunlight through to warm the ocean, versus when sea
surface temperatures increase more uniformly around the world due to increased amounts of human - caused heat - trapping gases.18, 25,26,27 So the link
between hurricanes and ocean
temperatures is complex.
I should not be surprised if,
in due course, the Professor were to publish a paper on the implications of the remarkably substantial discrepancy
between the model - predicted and actually - observed rates of
change in surface evaporation per unit
change in surface temperature.
Hence, the panel concludes that at least part of the observed disparity
between the 20 - year
changes in surface and mid-tropospheric
temperature is probably real, but the measurement, modeling, and sampling uncertainties alluded to above make it difficult to precisely attribute the disparity to any particular sources.
The analysis uses a global energy budget model that links ECS and TCR to
changes in global mean
surface temperature (GMST), radiative forcing and the rate of ocean heat uptake
between a base and a final period.
Spencer / Braswell and Lindzen / Choi look at the relationship
between changes in ocean heat, cloud cover (directly affecting the amount of heat lost to space), and global
surface temperature over recent decades.
But as they say
in the main paper, the
change in overall global
surface temperature trend during the hiatus period is almost entirely due to the 0.064 °C SST trend
change between ERSSTv3b and ERSSTv4.
The discrepancy
between recent observed and simulated trends
in global mean
surface temperature has provoked a debate about possible causes and implications for future climate
change projections.
I have a basic knowledge of physics, but I simply can not understand the connection
between change in radiation
in the amosphere, and
change in temperature at the
surface.
Recently, Willis (2010) used satellite observations of sea
surface height and sensor buoy observations of velocity, salinity and
temperature of the Atlantic Ocean at 41oN and found no significant
change in the AMOC strength
between 2002 and 2009.
As better methods to adjust for biases
in instruments and orbital
changes have been developed, the differences
between the
surface temperature record and the troposphere have steadily decreased.
There is consistence [70]
between the estimates of the ISCCP, the global albedo, the insolation measured at the
surface and the length of the daily insolation observed
in many places: all of them are likely to explain the
temperature changes.
A number of studies have highlighted relationships
between low - cloud amount
changes under global warming and modeled variations of low clouds with
changes in specific meteorological conditions (such as
surface temperature, inversion strength, subsidence)(Qu et.
Richa Sharma, Senior Associate with the National Institute of Urban Affairs, talked about a study that her team conducted for Delhi from 2003 to 2011 and found a strong correlation
between change in land use and
change in land
surface temperature in the city.
Change of surface temperature between 1990 and 2090, as predicted by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM forced by the anticipated change in atmospheric gas compos
Change of
surface temperature between 1990 and 2090, as predicted by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) GCM forced by the anticipated
change in atmospheric gas compos
change in atmospheric gas composition.
Or, putting it another way, what is the relationship
between ΔH, and
changes in surface temperature?
These
changes in cosmic ray intensity are compared to those of the mean global
surface temperature to attempt to quantify any link
between the two.
So, if we took out the effects of both volcanoes, the
change in mean global
surface temperatures between the two decades would have been about 0.015 K (2 %) higher, and the increase
in the
change in -LCB- forcing net of OHU -RCB- would have been about 0.03 W / m ^ 2 (also 2 %) higher.
Hence, relatively small exchanges of heat
between the atmosphere and ocean can cause significant
changes in surface temperature.