Global carbon dioxide emissions continue to track the high end of a range of emission scenarios, expanding the gap
between current emission trends and the emission pathway required to keep the global - average temperature increase below 2 degrees Celsius.
Not exact matches
If
current emissions trends continue (RCP8.5) we could cross the 1.5 °C threshold in 10 to 15 years, somewhere
between the years 2025 - 2030, compared to 2045 - 2050 when a 1985 - 2005 baseline is used.
Researchers at Stanford University who closely track China's power sector, coal use, and carbon dioxide
emissions have done an initial rough projection and foresee China possibly emitting somewhere
between 1.9 and 2.6 billion tons less carbon dioxide from 2008 to 2010 than it would have under «business as usual» if
current bearish
trends for the global economy hold up.
The problem is that you expand this to that temperature is responsible for the
current trend, which is caused by something else (
emissions), while the sensitivity only holds for the variability around the
trend and a (small) part of the
trend, depending of the temperature difference
between begin and endpoint.
On
current trends, the IPCC finds,
emissions will continue to soar and global average temperatures will rise
between 2.5 and 7.8 degrees Celsius before the century is out, depending on the pace of economic growth and the sensitivity of the climate system to CO2.
The report found that the gap
between emissions levels consistent with meeting the target and levels expected if country pledges are met is likely to be 17 gigatons of CO2 in 2030 based on
current trends.
The Asian powerhouse accounts for 33 - 40 % of the
emissions gap to 2030
between current trends and a 2C pathway, according to a research note.