The cycling of the Earth system
between glacial and interglacial modes has been ultimately driven by orbital variations.
In fact, the Earth system has alternated
between glacial and interglacial regimes for more than two million years, a period of time known as the Pleistocene.
The large swings
between glacial and interglacial climates are an order of magnitude slower than the current change.
Both CO2 and CH 4 vary
between glacial and interglacial phases, and concentrations of these gases correlate strongly with temperature.
Then you proceed: «The other important difference
between the glacial - interglacial cycles and today is the rapidity of the current change».
More research, however, is needed before the exact relationship
between glacial melting and warmer currents is understood.
If they're supposed to keep track of climate change for us it seems the climate change represented by the contrast
between glacial and interglacial periods is a pretty dramatic change and would be of utmost importance in being predictable within a 100 years or so precision.
J, You said: «The model being debated here would imply truly massive swings in CO2
between glacial and interglacial conditions (on the order of 1000 ppmv fluctuations).
As the Earth has alternated
between glacial and inter-glacial periods, the steep climatic ups and downs have gone hand in hand with changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels.
The reason why I think it's wrong is that in her calculation of ESS she takes the radiative forcing caused by albedo changes (resulting from the massive change in ice coverage
between a glacial and interglacial state) and assumes it to be a feedback on the CO2 induced temperature - change.
Even though lauded as a very valuable and novel contribution to the field, Snyder's reconstruction has also been criticized because the temperature amplitude
between glacial and interglacial states appears relatively large (~ 6 degrees) compared to other recent reconstructions, e.g. by Shakun et al (2012)(~ 4 degrees).
This second point was also made by James Annan in response to Hansen's 2008 Target CO2 paper, where he essentially used the same method as Snyder is using (but came to a smaller ESS value of 6 degrees, because Snyder uses a greater temperature - amplitude
between glacial - interglacial).
The other important difference
between the glacial - interglacial cycles and today is the rapidity of the current change.
Anonymous: «However I suggest that you amend the talking point on your site to say that «there is no clear relationship
between glacial retreat and AGW».»
CO2 clearly lags the warming that took place 135,000 years ago and even more importantly, it also lagged the cooling that ended the Eemian interglacial (warm period
between glacial periods) 117,000 years ago.
Variations
between glacial and interglacial are primarily driven by the 100,000 — year oscillation of the elliptical orbit of the Sun, a major part of the Milankovitch cycle.
Without this effect the contrast
between glacial and interglacial periods would have been much smaller.
(29) Another respected climatologist explained that the old view of «a grand, rhythmic cycle» must be replaced by a «much more rapid and irregular succession,» in which the Earth «can swing
between glacial and interglacial conditions in a surprisingly short span of millennia (some would say centuries).»
Our modern climate represents a very short, warm period
between glacial advances.»]
At issue are the potential hydraulic connections
between glacial Lake Agassiz and the Atlantic Ocean during, and after, the Younger Dryas, because a readvance would fill the western Superior basin with ice and prohibit eastern Lake Agassiz drainage.
Runaway ice feedbacks drive the transitions
between glacial and interglacial states seen repeatedly over the past 2.58 million years.
Dr. Soon: Earth's climate system dynamically oscillates between icehouse and hothouse conditions in geological time or, to a lesser degree,
between the glacial and interglacial climates of the last 1 — 2 million years.
An erroneous correlation
between glacial phases and pluvial phases in the tropics has been widely accepted in the past, although cold ocean water means less precipitation, not more.
For example, transitions
between glacial and interglacial periods are among the most rapid warming / cooling events in the paleoclimate record, and occur over several thousand years.
Isn't there an even bigger issue that approx half of the temperature amplitude
between glacial and interglacial isn't actually due to CO2 or other GHG, but to albedo changes (ice albedo feedback)?
Is there any evidence that something like this might be involved in the transitions
between glacial and interglacial periods?
Equilibrium sensitivity, including slower surface albedo feedbacks, is 6 °C for doubled CO2 for the range of climate states
between glacial conditions and ice - free Antarctica.»
And that's about the difference
between a glacial and warm interglacial.
In
between glacial lakes and snow capped mountains, the Jungfrau region offers everything from mouth - watering Swiss chocolate and dining in castles, to paragliding at 4000m or hiking through unimaginably perfect Alpine scenery.
These films share a world of sleek surfaces and ostentatious style, fuelled as much by modish electronica and gauche fashion as their narratives» sine wave ripples
between glacial inactivity and hard - hitting action.
Such a period
between glacial maxima is known as an interglacial.
Over the past few million years we have been oscillating back and forth
between glacial and interglacial epochs, Lowe says.
«Rather, we have evidence for a very dynamic ice sheet that grew and shrank significantly
between glacial and interglacial periods.
Another thing that ice core showed, as others have before, is that the great swing in temperature
between glacial and interglacial periods was invariably accompanied by great swings in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere: When the greenhouse goes up, the ice sheets go down.
The results show that the correlation between climate change — i.e. the variation in temperature and precipitation
between glacials and interglacials — and the loss of megafauna is weak, and can only be seen in one sub-region, namely Eurasia (Europe and Asia).
What are the quantiative mechanisms / sources by which CO2 fluctuates
between glacials and interglacials?
Instead, it appears that the shift
between glacials and interglacials is a change from one attractor to another, with the glacial attractor exhibiting (possibly) chaotic oscillations in the DO cycles.
Rather, the ice core record shows clearly that changes in temperature precede changes in carbon dioxide throughout the glacial - interglacial cycle (Mudelsee, 2001), and that for the last half million years the climate system has oscillated in a self - limiting way
between glacials and interglacials by about 6 deg.
This positive feedback is necessary to trigger the shifts
between glacials and interglacials as the effect of orbital changes is too weak to cause such variation.
Big changes (and 2 - 3 °C would be a huge difference, having in mind that the difference
between glacials and interglacials is only about 4 °C) in climatic conditions would also bring big changes to where people can live on this planet.
Paleo - climate research suggests the position of the ASL also shifts
between glacials and interglacials, and drove warm CDW shoreward during interglacials and accelerated glacier retreat.
Lots of things change
between the glacials and interglacials, and some of them have opposing effects on carbon fluxes.
Just given the massive changes in biomass volume etc, especially
between glacials and interglacials, how do you explain the apparent lack of massive swings?
J, Just given the massive changes in biomass volume etc, especially
between glacials and interglacials, how do you explain the apparent lack of massive swings?
Not exact matches
The line will likely be distributed through the Anheuser - Busch system, following the just - announced partnership
between Bowery parent company Golden West Food Group and Icelandic Water Holdings, which moves its Icelandic
Glacial bottled water on A-B trucks.
[4]
Between the hills and
glacial moraine, Putnam County's valleys contain numerous wetlands (including part of the Great Swamp), creeks, ponds, lakes (including the 583 acre Lake Mahopac), and reservoirs.
The modern lakes are the remnants of a giant prehistoric lake, known as
glacial Lake Peace, which covered much of the area
between the retreating glaciers.
The more intensive variations during
glacial periods are due to the greater difference in temperature
between the ice - covered polar regions and the Tropics, which produced a more dynamic exchange of warm and cold air masses.
In the climatic past and earlier
glacial periods, this level fluctuated
between 180 ppm and 260 ppm.
Cyclical
glacial ages began, rotating
between 100,000 years of massive glaciers, followed by 10,000 - year breaks.