As we have also pointed out in previous posts, we can indeed draw some important conclusions about the links
between hurricane activity and global warming in a statistical sense.
Not exact matches
Out of 58
hurricanes, 56 showed a significant correlation
between lightning
activity and wind speed, with peak winds arriving 30 hours after the lightning on average.
The researchers are not the first to examine a potential link
between hurricanes and seismic
activity.
The link
between SSTs and
hurricane activity is complex and subject to other variables such as the moisture content of the atmosphere (which is linked to SSTs) and wind shear aloft.
Emanuel found a close correlation
between increases in this measure of
hurricane activity (which is likely a better measure of the destructive potential of the storms than previously used measures) and rising tropical North Atlantic SST, consistent with basic theoretical expectations.
BTW, am I misremembering or has Emanuel said here for the first time that there's now a clear connection
between global warming and
hurricane activity (albeit not yet detectable in the North Atlantic basin when taken on its own)?
Just wondering, does the relationship
between hurricane and cyclone
activity and global warming have as good a correlation as
between tree rings and instrumented temperature readings?
A good example of this was the recent post (s) here on the relation
between hurricanes and AGW which elided Landsea and the earlier
hurricane activity data.
But the new work did seem a lot more scientifically rigorous than most previous arguments against a link
between global warming and
hurricanes; which simply state we don't know enough about past
hurricane activity to determine whether modern
hurricane activity is unprecedented.
However, it don't agree that it is a definitive statement on the lack of a link
between recent
hurricane activity and anthropogenic global warming.
There is also strong disagreement
between researchers over the accuracy of claims that
hurricane activity has peaked over the past ten years.
OK, so apart from the Hockey stick graph, the disappearance of the Himalayan glaciers, the melting of summer Arctic sea ice, the lack of
hurricane activity, the erroneous relationship
between malaria and global warming, the resilience of corals, the obstinacy of Tuvalu and the Maldives to disappear to the sea, the manipulation of instrumental temperature data... (Gasp for breath!)
The
activity focuses on six named
hurricanes that occurred
between 1999 and 2009.
... incomplete and misleading because it 1) omits any mention of several of the most important aspects of the potential relationships
between hurricanes and global warming, including rainfall, sea level, and storm surge; 2) leaves the impression that there is no significant connection
between recent climate change caused by human
activities and
hurricane characteristics and impacts; and 3) does not take full account of the significance of recently identified trends and variations in tropical storms in causing impacts as compared to increasing societal vulnerability.
The authors, from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, say their findings do not necessarily conflict with recent papers asserting a link
between the region's
hurricane activity and human - caused warming of the climate and seas.
Don't forget that Judith Curry was one of the «scientists» claiming a connection
between increased
hurricane activity and global warming with less than adequate data (see discussions on this blog).
Detecting trends in Atlantic and eastern North Pacific
hurricane activity is challenged by a lack of consistent historical data and limited understanding of all of the complex interactions
between the atmosphere and ocean that influence
hurricanes.4, 5,6
Over the past 50 years there has been a strong statistical connection
between tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and Atlantic
hurricane activity as measured by the Power Dissipation Index (which combines storm intensity, duration, and frequency).
One problem with the AMO idea is that despite the apparent relationship
between oscillating sea temperatures, atmospheric changes and
hurricane activity, scientists have yet to find an explanation in nature for why such a cycle would exist.
The
hurricane signal shows strong, centennial - scale variations in frequency with a period of increased
activity between the 12th — 16th centuries, and decreased
activity during the 11th and 17th — 19th centuries.
The
hurricane signal shows centennial - scale variations in frequency with a period of increased
activity between the 12th — 16th centuries, and decreased
activity during the 11th and 17th — 19th centuries.
Upon seeing efforts to establish relationships
between various climate variables and NATL
hurricane activity one is tempted to quote John von Neumann who said of fitting relationships with various parameters, «with four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk» (as related in Dyson, 2004).
For a discussion of what can and can not be concluded about possible relationships
between recent
Hurricane activity and climate change, please see our post on Hurricanes and Global Warming: Is There a Connection?.
Therefore, we conclude that despite statistical correlations
between SST and Atlantic
hurricane activity in recent decades, it is premature to conclude that human
activity — and particularly greenhouse warming — has already caused a detectable change in Atlantic
hurricane activity.
If this statistical relation
between tropical Atlantic SSTs and
hurricane activity is used to infer future changes in Atlantic
hurricane activity, the implications are sobering: the large increases in tropical Atlantic SSTs projected for the late 21st century would imply very substantial increases in
hurricane destructive potential — roughly a 300 % increase in the PDI by 2100 (Figure 1a).
Using this additional downscaling step, the GFDL
hurricane model reproduces some important historical characteristics of very intense Atlantic
hurricanes, including the wind speed distribution and the change of this distribution
between active and inactive decadal periods of
hurricane activity (Fig. 1 of Bender et al. 2010).
Observed records of Atlantic
hurricane activity show some correlation, on multi-year time - scales,
between local tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the Power Dissipation Index (PDI)-- see for example Fig. 3 on this EPA Climate Indicators site.
In fact,
hurricane activity is more related to the difference in temperatures
between the cold and warmer waters, a difference AGW theory says should decrease rather than increase.
Hurricane season runs from June through November, with a peak in
activity between late August and October.