Since no scientists have made a claim of direct cause and effect (see our recent post on potential statistical links
between hurricane intensity and tropical warming), any scientific assessment (such as the next IPCC report) will certainly not do so either.
Not exact matches
Dr. Christopher Landsea — past chairman of the American Meteorological Society's Committee on Tropical Meteorology and Tropical Cyclones — says «there are no known scientific studies that show a conclusive physical link
between global warming and observed
hurricane frequency and
intensity.»
However, for the period prior to 1945, we consider that
intensity estimates are too uncertain for definitive analysis, especially for differentiating
between hurricane classes.
I've always thought it «obvious» that
hurricane intensity would be linked to SSTs due to latent heat energy considerations, and not to differences
between SST and upper atmosphere temperature.
In part of course, because they neatly symbolize the two opposing camps in the current debate: contrast for example Emanuel's work demonstrating a linkage
between increasing
hurricane intensity and global warming with Gray's denial of any such link.
Perhaps more importantly, the paper in no way challenges the Emanuel (2005) study demonstrating a close linkage
between warming sea surface temperatures and
hurricane intensity for the Atlantic.
it seems that your conclusion:» the observed relationship
between increased
intensity of TCs and rising ocean temperatures appears to be robust» is in direct contradiction with your conclusion «our knowledge of likely future changes in
hurricanes or tropical cyclones (TCs) remains an uncertain area of science».
Since the SST changes are global, and almost certainly tied to greenhouse gas driven global warming, there are the beginnings of a corroborated link
between increases in
hurricane intensity and GW — however, so far there are only a couple of ducks in a row.
Also, I've read somewhere (sorry no ref) that GW may decrease the temperature differential
between the poles and the equatore hence reducing
Hurricane intensity.
In doing so, they fail to recognize the important distinction
between the operational
hurricane forecasting problem (a classical initial value problem) and the boundary value problem addressed in KT04, where one is concerned with the maximum
hurricane intensity that is possible for a given set of largescale environmental conditions (i.e., a climatological or statistical distribution of maximum
intensities).
The intense rainfall was due to a complicated interplay
between the
intensity of the
hurricane, its path, and the fact that it stalled over the coast with part of it still over the water so the storm dynamics could access the heat and moisture of the Gulf.
While tropical
hurricane intensity is primarily driven by latent heat from warm sea surface temperatures, an extra-tropical storm is primarily driven by baroclinic processes (differences in the pressure gradient) such as the gradient due to the contrast
between the warm Gulf Stream and cold continental air mass.
He also does a very good job in talking about the relationship
between sea surface temperature and
hurricane intensity.
One key example has been communication on the scientific question of the relationship
between global warming and increased
hurricane intensity.
However, other dimensions that still hold higher degrees of scientific uncertainty — such as the linkages
between climate change and
hurricane intensity, or on matters of political disagreement, such as if cap and trade legislation is an effective solution — remain subjects where journalists justifiably should emphasize a greater diversity of views.
But there is no evidence whatsoever of any positive link
between «climate change» and
hurricane intensity.
Two new papers have recently been published examining the link
between global warming and
hurricane intensity.
There are no known scientific studies that show a conclusive physical link
between global warming and
hurricane frequency and
intensity.
Over the past 50 years there has been a strong statistical connection
between tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and Atlantic
hurricane activity as measured by the Power Dissipation Index (which combines storm
intensity, duration, and frequency).
Held said he hadn't been affected, but he advised calling Thomas Knutson, a NOAA scientist whose research showed a link
between climate change and
hurricane intensity.
He argued that Knutson's research reflects only a small link
between global warming and
hurricane intensity.
«What you can do is show an unambiguous link
between the increase in
hurricane intensity and the warming sea surface temperatures.
The link
between heat and
Hurricane intensity is unquestionable, as atmospheric water vapour density increases with higher temperatures, the energy source is likewise augmented, same goes for cyclones.
RE # 193 my legal understanding (as a layperson) would be that we can not make a criminal case re the link
between CC &
hurricane intensity of a specific
hurricane, which requires «beyond a resonable doubt» (sort of like a scientific standard of p <.05), but there could be a civil case, which requires a «preponderance of evidence.»
Some scientists still think it's too premature to make any definitive links
between sea surface temperatures and
hurricane intensity.
That is, the IPCC itself makes no connection
between the current warming trend and
hurricane intensity.