There is no straightforward connection
between hurricane strength and sea surface temperatures (Swanson, 2008) and when we look at past records, hurricanes vary much more coherently with natural climate oscillations than with increasing greenhouse gasses (Chylek and Lesins, 2008).
Unfortunately, every article I have read that explains why hurricane strength is anticipated to increase merely cites the observed link
between hurricane strength and ocean temperature, without explaining why CO2 would cause water tempertaures to rise more than that of the air above it.
Not exact matches
A summary of the studies, released last month, warns of a nonlinear relationship
between the
strength of future storms and potential losses, which stand to grow even if the worst predictions about
hurricanes aren't realized.
But, how strong is the connection
between climate change and the
strength of individual storms like Haiyan or
Hurricane Sandy?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center in May projected
between a dozen and 16 named storms, including 2 to 5 major
hurricanes (those above Category 3 on the Saffir - Simpson scale of storm
strength).
We demonstrate a direct connection
between SST and
hurricane strength.
«The authors write that «the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring fluctuation,» whereby «on a timescale of two to seven years, the eastern equatorial Pacific climate varies
between anomalously cold (La Niña) and warm (El Niño) conditions,» and that «these swings in temperature are accompanied by changes in the structure of the subsurface ocean, variability in the
strength of the equatorial easterly trade winds, shifts in the position of atmospheric convection, and global teleconnection patterns associated with these changes that lead to variations in rainfall and weather patterns in many parts of the world,» which end up affecting «ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies,
hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide.»»
And now, the National Weather Service projects a whopper of a North Atlantic storm will pack 90 mile - per - hour
hurricane strength winds into the Arctic Ocean
between Greenland and Iceland this week, breaking up even more sea ice.
The new study potentially addresses one major criticism leveled by scientists skeptical of any strong link
between sea surface temperatures and
hurricane strength, said Kerry Emanuel, a climatologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who was not involved in the study.
With Hermine crossing northern Florida this morning briefly at
hurricane strength, the record is now set at 10 years
between 2006 and 2016.