Sillman et al. also note which models perform well for which indices and discuss where discrepancies
between model output and observations remain substantial.
Such adjustments, even if they improve the match
between model output and observations, do not mean that we have improved the model.
IF I understand correctly, predictors are discrepancies
between model output and observations.
Relationships
between model output to values for independent variables, including (a) winter precipitation, (b) percent basal area reduction, and (c) years since treatment.
Of course you should have posted the models hindcasts for the whole of the 20th century and then you would see the excellent short to medium term correlation
between model output ant global temperature record.
Now scientists have concluded this century, that this natural variation «weather» signal can be large enough to put a significant mismatch
between model output and current decadal temperature record.
Brandon, the answer is already in my original comment: 1) None of the climate models has been subjected to a formal V&V process (no validation report available) 2) None of the models is able to formally hind - cast past observations and as a matter of fact there is a significant mismatch
between models outputs and measurements over [1880 — 1970] and [2000 — 2010] periods, which means that all models would have failed to pass such a validation process.
Yes, but this study claims that by selecting those die which cast a series which corresponds by chance to the realization of sea surface temps and then through selection of those which correspond to hiatus surface temps, over a bunch of initial conditions, it's a better comparison than
between models output and reality.
Not exact matches
That kicked off an elaborate reshuffling, in which production of several FCA products was shifted
between factories to maximize
output of hot - selling
models (and launch a few new ones):
The
output of the
model is a number
between 0 and 1, which the researchers call «PhysiScore.»
The second step for Wang's team was to use
output from the «large - domain» SELFE
model — which they verified by comparing with actual readings from NOAA tide gauges
between Long Island and Chesapeake Bay — to drive a
model of much higher resolution focused on New York City and its harbor.
Studies of the Arctic system, connections
between atmosphere and sea ice, and
between the Arctic and the global system using remote sensing, conventional measurements, and
output from global climate
models.
No matter how powerful the computer used or how impressive the
model output, any
model of a natural system is only as good as the authors» understanding of the interaction
between the physical laws that define their subject and the potential of simple small - scale interactions to produce large - scale complexity, more readily summarised as:
Unfortunately, I don't have the post-2003
model output handy, but the comparison
between the 3 - monthly data (to the end of Sep) and annual data versus the
model output is still useful.
This means that Illustris might be
modeling real galaxies better than it seems, and coupling of a dust reddening
model to the simulation
output might improve the correspondence
between the mismatched vote fraction distributions at lower stellar masses.
The Nav produces exactly the same numbers as the Cup - S — its blown four - cylinder engine
outputs 271bhp at 5500rpm and torque peaks at 265 lb ft
between 3000 - 5000rpm, enabling a six - second 0 - 62mph time and 158mph top speed for both
models — but it also comes with significantly more kit.
Multiple battery capacity and electric motor
outputs will be offered, as in the
Model S, with
outputs possibly
between 380 and 691 hp.
It borrows certain hardware from the very hardcore top - spec
model, and all of the important numbers — power and torque
output, performance and price — slot it neatly
between the GT S and GT R.
With its increased power
output and slightly modified suspension, the GTS
model is meant to fit in
between the Carrera S and the track - oriented GT3.
It fairly evenly splits the difference
between the C300 and C63 in terms of displacement, cylinder count, and
output, but its sporty demeanor and performance capabilities bring it closer to the eight - cylinder
model, not a surprise given the AMG in the name.
This boost in power means the BMW M Performance members of the BMW 1 Series and BMW 2 Series
model ranges now offer the same
output levels as the BMW 1 Series M Coupe built
between 2011 and 2012.
For example, the numeral combination «30» will appear on the rear of all
models with power
output between 81 and 96 kW.
Power
outputs range from 90 kW / 122 hp to 200 kW / 272 hp; the torque scale starts at 230 and goes up to 350 Nm; fuel consumption ranges
between 5.8 and 9.5 litres per 100 kilometres depending on the engine
model and
output class, and has been reduced by up to 10.8 percent compared with the outgoing Sports Coupé.
Power
outputs are
between 125 PS and 240 PS, and the company claims that the new lineup of four TSI petrol and four TDI diesel engines is 24 percent more fuel efficient than the outgoing
model.
The 1987
model equipped with the 7.4 - liter (454 cubic - inch) V8 made some 385 ft - lbs of torque, but every version of this engine employed from 1981 forward exceeded 300 ft - lbs — with torque
output steadily progressing from 340 ft - lbs every year
between ’81 and «87.
Depending on the
model and engine
output, the four petrol variants of the B ‑ Class return fuel consumption figures of
between 6.6 and 8.1 litres per 100 kilometres on the NEDC driving cycle.
Power
output for these
models ranges anywhere
between 456 horsepower and 443 pound - feet of torque in the entry - level GT all the way up to 577 horsepower and 516 pound - feet in the GT - R, all of which comes in one sexy and stylish package.
These new engines are said to deliver
between 120 HP to 160 HP, but there are rumors suggesting the new Mini family, especially the John Cooper Works
models, will also use BMW's new 2.0 liter four - cylinder engine with an
output of 230 HP.
Altogether, Porsche's third dedicated plug - in hybrid
model, after the 918 Spyder and Panamera S E-Hybrid, delivers a combined
output of 410 hp at 5,500 rpm and 434 lb - ft of torque
between 1,200 and 4,000 rpm, improving on the
model it replaces by 35 hp and 7 lb - ft.
On the emissions front the standard GTD rolling on 18in wheels produce
between 122 and 129g / km, while the GTD Bluemotion
models reduce the CO2
output to
between 116 and 129g / km, which is largely down to the Golf riding on 17in alloy wheels.
The 2013 Audi S8 retains it's position as the flagship S - car in the
model lineup and gets the flagship high -
output version of the 4.0 TFSI twin - turbo V8 rated at 520 - horsepower and 479 lb - ft of torque
between 1,700 rpm and 5,500 rpm.
In this
model the all - aluminium diesel develops maximum
output of 150 kW / 204 hp at 4,000 rpm, while maximum torque increased to 450N · m / 332 lb - ft is maintained consistently
between 1,750 and 2,500 rpm.
The John Cooper Work Tuning Kit increases the engine's power
output on the Cooper S and Cooper S ALL4 on the Clubman and Countryman
models from 189 to 208 hp and pushes the maximum torque to 221 ft - lb
between 1,350 and 4,600 rpm.
Finally, there's the track - focused two - seat 911 GT3 coupe with power
output that places it
between the 50th Anniversary and Turbo
models.
I speculate that this is due to (among other things) the use of the RCM as the poor man's global
model, and - as described above - a disconnect
between stakeholders and global
model output.
Recall that in their 2001 Third Assessment Report, the IPCC gives a range of temperature increase
between 1990 and 2100 of 1.4 and 5.8 ºC based upon the simulated
output from 7 different climate
models run under 35 different emissions scenarios — each of which the IPCC claimed as having an equal probability of occurrence.
As before, I don't have the post-2003
model output, but the comparison
between the 3 - monthly data (to the end of Sep) and annual data versus the
model output is still useful.
«You're ignoring my comment above in which I clearly stated the 0.5 W / m2 was the difference
between OHC and the TOA
model output.»
In other words, the current generation of climate
models (CMIP5) agrees better among themselves than the prior generation (CMIP3), i.e., there is less of a spread
between climate
model outputs, because they are converging on the same results.
However, the wide range and finite number of simulation
outputs render
modeled relationships
between temperature and Antarctic sea - level contribution locally nonmonotonic.
On a similar & related note, I wonder if anyone has considered a convolutional
model to describe the relationship
between forcings &
outputs & if that is a useful
model to describe the climate system.
Second, we need to consider the expected relationship
between the
models»
output and the observed data.
I am confident that, even if we were able to find some «agreement»
between the
outputs of the current generation of climate
models and the available measurements and observations, we ought to be cautious, because we can be almost 100 % certain that the apparent agreement is fundamentally incorrect.
The climatological
model output paper you referred to does indeed define ice free to be anywhere
between no ice at all and 1000000 square kilometres.
Among these, he noted the close agreement
between climate
model output and observations down to spatial scales smaller than continents, which forms a part of the detection and attribution literature.
Comparisons
between these reconstructions and the
output of Earth system
models provide evaluation opportunities to improve our understanding of climate forcings on time scales that are not adequately represented by the instrumental record.
In part one, I wrote «In the simplest of terms, every study that has attributed the recent warming of the 1980s and 90s to rising CO2 has been based on the difference
between their
models» reconstruction of «natural climate change» with their
models»
output of «natural climate change plus CO2.»
This stock / (yearly absorption) analysis avoids all the pitfalls of the assumed equilibrium
between absorption and out - gassing that is postulated by all the compartment
models with constant inputs and
outputs that lead to a set of linear equation and by Laplace transform to expressions like the Bern or Hamburg formulas; there is no equilibrium because as said more CO2 implies more green plants eating more and so on; the references in note 19 show even James Hansen and Francey (figure 17 F) admits (now) that their carbon cycle is wrong!
There is a difference
between understanding the basic principles of
modelling at a lay level and being able to evaluate the specific
model, its validity and its
output.
In your
model, the sphere heats up due to the reduced net heat transfer
output flux from the sphere that results when the ∆ T
between the sphere and shell decreases (the input flux to the sphere (Sun) remains constant).