The fact that AWS stations are likely to show a warming bias compared to manned stations (as the distance between the sensor and the snow surface tends to decrease over time, and Antarctica shows a strong temperature gradient
between the nominal 3m sensor height and the snow surface) matters.
Many individuals split their bond portion of their portfolio evenly
between nominal bonds and inflation - protected securities.
Based on the spread
between nominal and inflation protected yields, the expected 10 - year inflation rate is 2.75 percentage points, up more than 100 basis points in the past year.
In thinking about choosing
between nominal bonds and TIPS, I have always found it helpful to think about the question in terms of Pascal's Wager.
Debit: Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's latest round of gratuitous money printing increased inflation fears this week as evidenced by the so - called break - even rate
between nominal and inflation - protected Treasury debt; it reached its highest level since 2006.
A couple of percent difference
between nominal and real return may not sound like a lot, but it has a huge effect over time.
The value of Treasury inflation - protected securities (TIPS) generally fluctuates in response to changes in real interest rates, which are, in turn, tied to the relationship
between nominal interest rates and the rate of inflation.
Inflation then adjusts to re-establish the proper relation
between the nominal and real interest rates.
Mathematically speaking, the difference
between the nominal rate and the effective rate increases with the number of compounding periods within a specified time period.
The difference
between nominal and inflation - protected bonds show that implied inflation in Sweden is just 2 percent, while it's more than 3 percent in the UK.
Discount: The difference
between some nominal amount for a security and the lower current market price.
Those who understand the difference
between nominal and real interest rates have thus taken a major step toward becoming smarter consumers and investors.
Mathematically speaking, the difference
between the nominal and effective rates increases with the number of compounding periods within a specific period.
As there was significant inflation in the 80s, I suspect that there is a big difference
between the nominal and real terms values.
Expectations of inflation, as measured by the difference
between nominal and indexed 10 - year bond yields, remain at around 2.3 per cent.
Breakeven rates — the difference in yields
between nominal and inflation - linked bonds of the same maturity — reflect market expectations for inflation.
Medium - term inflation expectations of financial market participants, as implied by the difference
between nominal and indexed bond yields, have risen to around 3 per cent in October, from less than 2 per cent at the beginning of the year.
Instead, as coupons and maturity payments are linked to inflation, index - linked gilt prices are instead driven much more by changes to inflation expectations, and also the complex interaction
between nominal interest rates and those inflation expectations (real interest rates).
In contrast, medium - term inflation expectations implied by financial market prices, which are calculated as the difference
between nominal and indexed bond yields, have been broadly stable at around 2.6 per cent over the past nine months.
There are so many reasons why this is wrong (to list just the most obvious, poor countries have much lower debt thresholds than rich countries, Japanese debt can not possibly be dismissed as not being a problem, and because it is almost impossible to find an economist who understands the relationship
between nominal interest rates and implicit amortization, Japanese government debt has probably only been manageable to date because GDP growth close to zero has permitted interest rates close to zero) and yet inane comparisons between China's debt burden and Japan's debt burden are made all the time.
The more appropriate measure of financial repression is not the deflator, whichever one we choose to use, but rather very roughly the gap
between the nominal lending rate and the nominal GDP growth rate, the latter of which broadly represents the return on investment within the economy.
First, it is now much harder for borrowers to justify investment in non-productive projects because they can no longer count on the huge gap
between nominal GDP growth and the lending rate to bail them out of bad investments.
In this case the «cost» of financial repression to households was the gap
between nominal GDP growth and nominal lending rates, plus an additional 1 - 1.5 % to account for the larger than normal gap between the lending rate and the deposit rate.
The only important thing a Neo-Wicksellian would add is that it's important to distinguish
between nominal and real rates of interest (real = nominal minus inflation), so if we have a 2 % inflation target we add 2 % to the natural rate to get the «neutral» nominal rate.
Not exact matches
(The Bank of Canada estimates that the
nominal neutral interest rate, or the rate at which the level of interest is neither stimulative or contractionary, is
between 2.75 % and 3.75 %, compared with 4.5 % and 5.5 % before the crisis.)
The direct mathematical relationship
between IRR,
nominal R&D productivity / ROI, and both past and future P&L performance is illustrated in the following 3 charts.
It can make the difference
between having someone stick around on your team and do excellent work versus trying to find a different job across town and doing
nominal work.
Sack and Elsasser attribute the low relative valuation of TIIS over this period to several factors: investor difficulty adjusting to a new asset class, divergent supply trends
between TIIS and
nominal Treasuries, and the lower liquidity of indexed debt.
Subsequently, within the course of the same survey, they were asked to choose
between two possible financial investments, one that gives a fixed
nominal return after twelve months, and another that yields a return indexed by inflation, again after one year.
The spread
between indexed and
nominal yields has fallen, on average, well below survey measures of long - run inflation expectations.
As a result, compared to the March 2012 Budget planning assumption, the level of
nominal GDP is $ 9 billion lower in 2012 — this consists of a «risk adjustment factor» of $ 7 billion and the difference
between the change in the private sector average forecast of $ 22 billion less the March 2012 Budget «risk adjustment factor» of $ 20 billion.
That means that each actual dollar in the derivatives market is supporting
between $ 35 and $ 70 of
nominal value.
Because low - risk investments return roughly 20 % on average in a country with 20 %
nominal GDP growth, financial repression means that the benefits of growth are unfairly distributed
between savers (who get just the deposit rate, say 3 %), banks, who get the spread
between the lending and the deposit rate (say 3.5 %) and the borrower, who gets everything else (13.5 % in this case, assuming he takes little risk — even more if he takes risk).
Just as a k - percent rule requires a stable relationship
between a monetary aggregate and
nominal GDP (i.e., stable money velocity), a Taylor Rule needs a stable relationship
between the policy rate and financial conditions.
In the event of demand shocks, there is not a large conflict
between the real and
nominal objectives; the monetary response is the same to meet both objectives, and the actions of all the inflation - targeting central banks would not be significantly different.
Between 1967 and 2007, the US economy grew at an average
nominal rate of 7.3 % per annum.
It seems to me that two countries with a price level target will effectively have a
nominal exchange rate target, which could make for interesting interactions
between foreign and domestic mon pol.
The Statement clarifies the possible tension
between the real and
nominal goals that are embodied in the Reserve Bank Act.
Now, talking about what is specifically happening with the US dollar, it might be interesting for people to look at the data provided by the World Bank, in which the World Bank provides the ratio
between purchasing power parities and
nominal exchange rates of countries, comparing it with the US dollar.
But I really was convinced of my math, which connected iron ore prices inexorably with the extraordinarily large gap
between China's
Nominal GDP growth and interest rates set by the PBoC, and it was clearly impossible to maintain this gap.
This is the difference
between the 5 - year
nominal treasury yield and the 5 - year TIPs yield and is suppose to reflect treasury market's forecast for the average annual inflation rate over the next five years.
This important effect is the difference
between the «
nominal» return — the return a bond or bond fund provides on paper — and the «real,» or inflation - adjusted, return.
Selsick estimates the relationship
between the Shiller - 16 and subsequent 16 - year total returns in the S&P 500, and arrives at a 16 - year estimate of prospective
nominal returns of 4.94 % annually.
Indeed, because the level of interest rates at any point in time is highly correlated with the level of
nominal economic growth over the preceding decade, the relationship
between starting valuations and actual subsequent S&P 500
nominal total returns is nearly independent of interest rates.
The orange line is the implied inflation rate, based on the difference
between the 10 - year
nominal Treasury yield and the yield on 10 - year inflation - protected Treasuries.
Implied inflation (the difference
between 10 - year
nominal and 10 - year real yields) fell nearly 100 basis points during the 2000 - 2002 bear market.
Inflation expectations, as measured by the difference
between yields on 10 - year
nominal Treasury notes and Treasury inflation protected securities (Tips), have risen to 2.25 per cent from a low of around 2.10 a month ago.
Most raises granted were
nominal in nature, with 41 % receiving a jump up of
between 1 - 4 %.
There is no firm benchmark as to what constitutes a «normal» relationship
between credit growth and
nominal GDP growth.
As a basis for comparison,
between 1980 and 1995, household credit grew, on average, by around 3 3/4 percentage points faster than
nominal GDP.