Ice ages alternate
between periods of warm and cold.
It seems that temperatures in the Arctic naturally alternate
between periods of warming and periods of cooling.
Whatever the case, it is clear that the Arctic seems to alternate
between periods of warming and periods of cooling.
Not exact matches
The time
between hearing «Honey, I'm pregnant» and «Oh my God, I think I felt a contraction,» is a
warm - up
period for the rest
of your life.
For the last 2.5 million years, Earth settled into a rather unusual
period of potential instability as we rocked back and forth
between ice ages and intervening
warm periods, or interglacials.
Scientists may also become able to distinguish
between different scenarios sooner by studying the physics
of local ice - sheet changes and refining reconstructions
of changes during
warm periods in geological history.
«Using a numerical climate model we found that sulfate reductions over Europe
between 1980 and 2005 could explain a significant fraction
of the amplified
warming in the Arctic region during that
period due to changes in long - range transport, atmospheric winds and ocean currents.
It is also the longest
period of globally stable climate and sea level in at least the last 400,000 most recent years
of seesaw
between glaciation and
warmer times.
The Holocene Climate Optimum was a
period of global climate
warming that occurred
between six to nine thousand years ago.
The more intensive variations during glacial
periods are due to the greater difference in temperature
between the ice - covered polar regions and the Tropics, which produced a more dynamic exchange
of warm and cold air masses.
Understanding the complex interplay
between climate and biotic interactions is thus essential for fully anticipating how ecosystems will respond to the fast rates
of current
warming, which are unprecedented since the end
of the last glacial
period.
For example, the ice ages during the last several million years — and the
warmer periods in
between — appear to have been triggered by no more than a different seasonal and latitudinal distribution
of the solar energy absorbed by the Earth, not by a change in output from the sun.
Statistical analysis
of average global temperatures
between 1998 and 2013 shows that the slowdown in global
warming during this
period is consistent with natural variations in temperature, according to research by McGill University physics professor Shaun Lovejoy.
The core reaches only as far back as the latter part
of the Pleistocene epoch, when Earth began cycling
between warm and cold
periods every 100,000 years.
But they looked for 50 - year - long anomalies; the last century's
warming, the IPCC concludes, occurred in two
periods of about 30 years each (with cooling in
between).
Scientists monitoring the Cayman reefs noted a 40 percent decline in live coral cover
between 1999 and 2004 during a
period of warmer seas in the Caribbean.
They said that two extreme climate
periods — the Medieval
Warming Period between 800 and 1300 and the Little Ice Age
of 1300 to 1900 — occurred worldwide, at a time before industrial emissions
of greenhouse gases became abundant.
«Looking at weather and dengue incidents over longer
periods, we found a similar strong link
between how increased rainfall and
warmer temperatures resulting from the reoccurring el Niño phenomenon are associated with elevated risks
of dengue epidemics.
To explore the links
between climatic
warming and rainfall in drylands, scientists from the Universities
of Cardiff and Bristol analysed more than 50 years
of detailed rainfall data (measured every minute) from a semi-arid drainage basin in south east Arizona exhibiting an upward trend in temperatures during that
period.
«We could see that the concentration
of carbon dioxide and solar radiation was higher during the cold
period between the two
warm periods compared with the cold
period before the first
warming 15,000 years ago.
Earth's climate naturally varies
between times
of warming and
periods of extreme cooling (ice ages) over thousands
of years.
«It confirms that the during the Medieval
Warm Period between 1080 and 1430 the oscillation index was in an unusually prolonged positive phase, which brings increased rain to Scotland and drier conditions in the western Mediterranean,» says Baker,
of the UNSW Connected Waters Initiative Research Centre.
By studying the relationship
between CO2 levels and climate change during a
warmer period in Earth's history, the scientists have been able to estimate how the climate will respond to increasing levels
of carbon dioxide, a parameter known as «climate sensitivity».
The new analysis suggests no discernable decrease in the rate
of warming between the second half
of the 20th century, a
period marked by manmade
warming, and the first fifteen years
of the 21st century, a
period dubbed a global
warming
Studies such as Otto et al. (2012) display how the numerical scale
of the simulation numbers allows for clear separation
between a climate with lower level
of heat - trapping gases (1960s) and the recent
period (2000s), such that the 2010 heat wave in western Russia was more likely to occur with the additional
warming due to climate change (Figure 3).
There is a disparity
between warm High Arctic upper air proven by a great melt
of 2008 during mostly cloudy
period, something you easily forget, the convenience
of grasping at straws, and a continuance
of reports showing a cool troposphere.
These so - called «modest hyperthermals» (meaning a rapid, pronounced
period of global
warming) had shorter durations and recoveries (about a 40,000 year cycle) and involved an exchange
of carbon
between surface reservoirs into the atmosphere and then into sediment.
And through detailed studies
of the local physics
of ice - sheet changes and more refined reconstructions
of ice - sheet changes during
warm periods of the geological past, scientists may become able to distinguish
between the two roads sooner.
The whole
of the last several million years has been a classic two state climate, oscillating
between ice ages and
warm periods, with sudden changes
between the two.
So what is the time difference
between CO2 levels during the onset
of a cooling
period at the end
of a
warming period and the time history
of the temperature changes in the ice cores?
In geological time, the balance
of the system has changed several times, and just like any system can have a resonance at certain points, the climate can reach a resonant point where it is teetering
between two states (our current 100,000 year ice age
warm period cycle).
Inter-cutting
between the two time
periods means that we get an even mixture
of the curious and
warm younger Darwin with the tired and distant older Darwin.
During the last part
of the Pleistocene there were actually five major
periods of glaciation with four
periods of warmer non glacial conditions
between them.
On your first comment, part
of the discrepancy
between our model's
warming and the IPCC result is due to different reference
periods.
Further, since you agree with us that the
warming rate during the next several decades will be below 0.325 ºC / decade, then, as I have pointed out, due to the level
of natural variability, a 20 - yr time
period is too short to really differentiate
between your beliefs and ours (if there exist any).
These results suggest that sea surface temperature pattern - induced low cloud anomalies could have contributed to the
period of reduced
warming between 1998 and 2013, and offer a physical explanation
of why climate sensitivities estimated from recently observed trends are probably biased low 4.
During some
of the
warm periods between past ice ages, it has been as
warm as, or
warmer than, it is today.
However, as I understand it what is currently the mainstream view is that what explains the transition from early 20th century
warming to the flat
period between is the resumption
of industrial production and thus
of reflective aerosols (predominantly sulfates), and that likewise, it was the passage in the early seventies
of laws requiring cleaner emissions that reduced reflective aerosols.
This is the linchpin: if the difference
between pre-industrial and modern temperatures is not as dramatic as this analysis indicates — i.e. if modern GLOBAL temperatures are comparable to those
of the Medieval
Warm Period (named for a REGIONAL phenomenon)-- then there is little need for urgency.
The research, led by Chronis Tzedakis
of University College, London, examined similarities
between the current
warm interval
between ice ages and a particular point, around 780,000 years ago, during a past
warm period known as Marine Isotope Stage 19.
So now I answer the «ice - age» denialist argument (denialists usually trot out ALL their inconsistent & contradictory arguments) this way: I draw a sine - wave in the air with my hand, saying, yes, that the normal fluctuation over a long geological timeframe is to alternate
between cold ice ages and
warm interglacial
periods, and that now we are right here in a
warm interglacial
period (my hand raised at the top
of the wave), and if there were no human GHGs, then we would expect that over a long time frame we'd be sliding down into an ice age.
Skeptics
of the current global
warming now refer to the
period between 1998 and 2008 and claim that global
warming has ended.
During a
period in which surface
warming is stifled by internal variability the rate
of energy accumulation would be influenced only by the forcing — there would be no difference
between a high - sensitivity model and a zero - feedback model (assuming zero - dimensional models; the reality, with regionally varying temperatures and feedbacks, would be more complex).
To achieve such a cycle, BNO (S) must at a minimum
warm the surface and atmosphere
of the planet by a total
of 0.31 °C during 1970 - 99 which would require more than perhaps 20 ZJ during the
warming phase, equally divided
between the first half and the last half
of this 1970 - 99
period.
So what is the time difference
between CO2 levels during the onset
of a cooling
period at the end
of a
warming period and the time history
of the temperature changes in the ice cores?
But the time
period for your graph includes the 1940 to 1970
period of slight cooling
between warming episodes before and after it.
In geological time, the balance
of the system has changed several times, and just like any system can have a resonance at certain points, the climate can reach a resonant point where it is teetering
between two states (our current 100,000 year ice age
warm period cycle).
The whole
of the last several million years has been a classic two state climate, oscillating
between ice ages and
warm periods, with sudden changes
between the two.
Second, the rate
of warming between 1880 and 1940 was not as severe as it has been since 1980, and morever, biomes across the planet have been radically altered by human activities muc more during the latter
period (e.g. especially since 1950).
These assumed that the largest decreases in rainfall would be in winter and spring (decreases
of 5 % and 11 %
between 1990 and 2030 on the low and high global
warming scenarios respectively), but rainfall was fractionally HIGHER in winter / spring in the more recent
period (1995 - 2006) than in the previous 11 - year
period.