The uncertainty monster paper distinguished
between statistical uncertainty and scenario uncertainty:
Not exact matches
A discrepancy emerged
between the
uncertainty of the
statistical regression and the melt scenario projections.
The three main criteria for a robust emergent constraint are satisfied: the physical mechanisms are well understood, the
statistical relationship
between the quantities of interest is strong, and
uncertainties in the observed variations are weak, allowing Hall and Qu to constrain the snow - albedo feedback under global warming.
«Epistemology is here applied to problems of
statistical inference during testing, the relationship
between the underlying physics and the models, the epistemic meaning of ensemble statistics, problems of spatial and temporal scale, the existence or not of an unforced null for climate fluctuations, the meaning of existing
uncertainty estimates, and other issues.
Of course this difference
between the
statistical models merely increases the
uncertainties.