So, when an economist or
bond fund manager makes an accurate forecast about Treasury yields, his or her clients are probably doing very well.
Not exact matches
It so happened that Bill Gross, the portfolio
manager of the Janus Global Unconstrained
Bond Fund,
made that 2.6 % call in a Bloomberg interview on Friday and then in his monthly investment letter on Tuesday.
In an unconstrained
bond fund, the
manager can hedge interest rate risk with futures, options, or swaps, or even short Treasury
bonds or notes, and
make up the loss in yield by overweighting credit.
Since most mutual
funds have a team of
fund managers doing the actual research and selecting individual stocks or
bonds that
make up the mutual
fund portfolio, most of the hard work will already be done for you.
The mutual
fund manager, as well as a team of financial analysts, researches the area of investment and
makes informed decisions about which stocks or
bonds to buy or sell in order for the mutual
fund to achieve the highest rate of return.
There is a
manager of the
fund who is buying and selling mostly stocks and
bonds for the
fund in an attempt to
make you money.
Make sure you understand what kind of
bonds are contained within the
fund and if the
fund manager is forced to hold long - term
bonds or if they have total flexibility with the holdings.
The tally is partial because we tend to exclude vanilla
bond funds and index
funds from the tally, since the
managers in such
funds make relatively modest differences in the
funds» performance.
@Jerry, I agree that today the main risk in
bonds is duration risk (AKA interest - rate risk)-- last weekend's Barron's has an interview with the UBS Wealth Management top
managers pointing out this means convincing investors to switch from Treasuries and investment - grade corporates to well - selected junk (HYLD is a jewel there — DO N'T go for index
funds in
bonds, very differently from ones in stocks they
make no sense... where's the sense in wanting to lend more to companies which are more indebted?!
Personally, I don't think Gundlach
makes his money that way for his
funds, but in case he does, how should a good
bond manager view junk
bonds?
The
manager will
make tactical shifts in the
fund's asset mix when he feels that stock or
bond valuations are at an extreme.
If the
fund's name includes the term, it means the
fund's
managers or sponsors feel they can enhance returns and / or reduce the risks of their
funds by switching back and forth among stocks,
bonds and cash equivalents, often using a so - called «black box,» a computer program that
makes trading decisions based on a pre-selected set of rules for interpreting financial statistics.
A good
bond manager has already decreased the portfolio duration (selling long term
bonds to buy more short term
bonds) to
make sure that the
bond fund doesn't drop drastically.
They use index
funds or ETFs except in certain asset classes, such as emerging markets or municipal
bonds, in which they think an active
manager can
make a difference.
It is possible that as the
fund manager changes the portfolio composition over time, she may actually lose or
make money relative to a static portfolio of the underlying, but this is no different in a
bond fund than in a stock
fund.
The average investor, who buys stocks and
bonds, does not have the necessary time to assess securities, nor the expertise to
make qualified investment decisions; thus he indirectly hires the
fund's
manager to
make these decisions.
The three main risks that they carry are — credit risk where the
bond issuer fails to
make timely interest payments and repay the principal amount on maturity; liquidity risk where the
fund manager is not able to sell his paper due to lack of demand for a particular security and; interest rate risk where a change in interest rate changes the price of the
bond.
Likewise, Dodge & Cox is a stock - heavy
manager, and their largest
funds made a big losing bet on financial stocks last year, which, combined with a relative lack of
bond assets to buffer them, didn't serve the firm (or their
funds» investors) very well.