The returns from the carry trade are, however, too large and consistent relative to traditional stock and
bond market return premiums to be fully explained by their risk.
Not exact matches
Let's take a look at the performance relationships between the stocks and the
bonds by using the S&P 500 Energy Total
Return and the S&P 500 Energy Corporate
Bond Index Total Return to see how the market views the equity risk premium, or in other words how strongly the market believes oil stocks will rise (equity performance) or fall (bond performan
Bond Index Total
Return to see how the
market views the equity risk
premium, or in other words how strongly the
market believes oil stocks will rise (equity performance) or fall (
bond performan
bond performance.)
Therefore, if the 20 - year Treasury
bond is currently yielding 3 percent, the
market risk
premium indicates that you can expect a
return on common stocks of approximately 8.5 percent (3 percent plus 5.5 percent).
Perhaps even more importantly, the risk
premium as measured by the monthly
return of the S&P 500 TR minus the S&P 500
Bond Index was negative (in other words was a discount) back in August 2017 that showed pessimism in the
market, despite a positive stock
market return.
Municipal
bonds priced at a
premium often provide the same
return as par
bonds that have the same credit quality and structure — with the added potential benefit of higher cash flows and lower
market volatility.
Since
bonds trade either at par, at a
premium or at a discount, a
bond's
market value will have considerable effect on its
return at maturity.