Not exact matches
LONDON, April 10 - Russia's rouble tumbled on Tuesday and some Russian
bonds plumbed record lows
in the wake of U.S. sanctions, but the broader emerging markets complex
rallied, encouraged by China's promise to reduce import tariffs.
The dollar has
rallied through much of the past week as concerns over the U.S. - China trade dispute receded, and as the U.S. 10 - year
bond yield shot past 3 percent for the first time
in four years.
To maintain the balance of their portfolios, pension fund managers have been selling equities and buying more
bonds, and their notable demand for the latter counters the popular narrative that the 35 - year
rally in fixed income is over.
This, along with the fact that
rallies in the 10 - year futures have also been accompanied by high volume, has Ciana believing that the
bond market could soon
rally.
Also, Ablin added a large portion of the recent
rally involved a rotation from
bonds into stocks as low interest rates forced investors to seek yield
in the stock market.
Back
in October, the big story was not just that equity markets were selling off while
bonds were
rallying, but that inflation expectations had completely fallen off a cliff.
U.S. long - term rates would spike, while investors
in Canada would rush to the domestic fixed - income market, setting off a
bond rally that would push Canadian yields down «substantially,» said Burleton.
Mad Money host Jim Cramer goes off the charts with the help of Carly Garner of DeCarley Trading, who expects the long
rally in bond prices to soon end.
Here's the upshot: After an initial multiyear recovery
in stock and
bond prices after a crisis (the
rally we saw through last year) comes a long stretch of lousy returns.
That will have massive implications for all capital markets, as
bonds will bounce, the dollar
rally will stall
in its tracks and equities could get a second wind due to a less aggressive Fed.
The European Central Bank is all but certain to cut back on its
bond - buying stimulus on Thursday, one of the biggest factors supporting the
rally in global stock markets
in recent months.
Caused by worries of a summer interest rate hike and uptick
in the U.S. dollar, gold and silver both stalled
in May but have since
rallied on the back of Brexit and with government
bond yields
in freefall.
«Generally, the
bond market seems to be under - reacting to both the sell - off and the
rally,» said Subadra Rajappa, head of U.S. rates strategy at Societe Generale
in New York.
Therefore we expect the decline
in interest rate futures, specifically the 10 - year Treasury Notes and 30 - year Treasury
Bonds to be a temporary effect of speculative exuberance, and for interest rate futures to
rally through the end of the month as the heavily short speculators are forced out of their positions.
5 Things to Watch Next Week: Saudi Arabia and Iran, Bitcoin
in Correction, Stocks Left Behind, Junk
Bonds, and the Dollar
Rally
At this point, we would require at least a strong
rally in bonds or a significant improvement
in market breadth, both which have stalled lately.
Junk -
bond ETFs
rallied on Wednesday, as markets breathed relief that the «fiscal cliff» is no longer a concern and as a result,
bond yields are under 6 percent for the first time ever, and junk ETF share prices hit levels not seen
in years
in some cases, according to an article on ETF Trends.
Bonds fell
in value and stocks
rallied.
: A classic point of contention for risk parity is that interest rates,
in general, are too low, and that while the approach may have performed well
in the past, it is only because of an historic
bond rally, which is unlikely to happen again.
As
bond yields surged on Friday, high - yielding segments of the equity market such as utilities and REITs came under the most pressure, which shows that it won't take much of a rise
in yields to derail their
rally.
The 200 - plus percent
rally in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index since March 2009 is thus a large driver of
bond purchases.
We have benefited from this year's
rally in stocks and
bonds (our Multi Asset Risk Strategy ETF Model Portfolio has a Sharpe ratio of over 3 this year — and that's with no leverage), but we are managing our risk by incorporating asset classes such as gold through the iShares Gold Trust (IAU); liquid alternatives through the IQ Hedge Multi-Strategy Tracker ETF (QAI), long - dated Treasuries through the iShares 20 + Year Treasury
Bond ETF (TLT)-- each of which diversify our portfolio risk and carry well within an ETF portfolio construct.
The government's 10 - year
bonds rose, pushing yields to their lowest level this year, while the benchmark BUX stock index
rallied the most
in six weeks.
Oil plunged another 4 percent, while safe - haven government U.S. and German
bonds, and the yen and the euro,
rallied as widespread fears of a China - led global economic slowdown and currency war kicked
in.
Treasury yields fall after tepid eurozone inflation data spark German bund
rally European government
bonds strengthened as inflation weakensTreasury yields retreat on Thursday by falling rates
in European government
bonds after eurozone inflation data came
in weaker than expected.
The gloomy outlook is a sea change from recent years, when stocks,
bonds and other assets
rallied in unison against the backdrop of easy money and synchronized global growth.
... I expect that corporate
bonds will lead the next stock market surge, just like they did
in 2009, setting up the stock market for an explosive
rally.
In other words, a breakout to the upside could clear the way for a larger rally while a failure from these levels could result in another down leg for bond prices.Figure 1 — TLT with potential resistance levels (Courtesy ProfitSource by HUB
In other words, a breakout to the upside could clear the way for a larger
rally while a failure from these levels could result
in another down leg for bond prices.Figure 1 — TLT with potential resistance levels (Courtesy ProfitSource by HUB
in another down leg for
bond prices.Figure 1 — TLT with potential resistance levels (Courtesy ProfitSource by HUBB)
But you wouldn't know it from the recent action of the long - term treasury
bond which
rallied 8 %
in 3 months since bottoming
in March.
Top 5 things that rocked U.S. markets this week — a surge
in bond yields sparked investor concerns, crude oil prices snap 2 - week winning streak, dollar extends
rally, gold prices struggle, and Bitcoin update
In 2008, for example, when United States stocks fell 37 percent, high - quality core
bonds rallied more than 5 percent.
As Wolf Richter pointed out for Wolf Street earlier this month: «Since mid-December 2016, the Fed has hiked rates four times,
in total by 1 percentage point, but over the same period, junk
bond yields rated CCC or below have declined 1.5 percentage points as the
bonds have
rallied.»
If the Dollar broke lower, its likely too that
bonds and duration would
rally; defensives (staples, utes, reits) and growth (tech / biotech / discret) squeeze against crowded value unwinding (fins, energy, indus); yen and euro would squeeze mightily; gold squeezes while copper pukes
in a favorite commodities «pair» unwind; HY could reverse weaker vs IG (currently everybody long CCC vs BB on the high beta trade)... this would be the theoretical path to our next pain - trade or even VaR shock.
In bonds, the recent rally in straight bonds provides a reasonable opportunity to reduce portfolio duratio
In bonds, the recent
rally in straight bonds provides a reasonable opportunity to reduce portfolio duratio
in straight
bonds provides a reasonable opportunity to reduce portfolio duration.
From a «consensual positioning» perspective which touches on this current «mean - reversion dynamic
in the marketplace: say this big
bond rally were to gather steam into a much more punishing squeeze of the «all - time» UST short base (largely due to the previously mentioned lack of «tolerance» for beginning of year performance pain).
Then late
in the week, stocks
rallied on some strong earnings reports and economic data, with a better - than - expected initial reading on first - quarter GDP pushing
bond - yield lower on Friday and easing some earlier week concerns about inflation.
Government treasury
bonds rallied sharply, enabling our position
in TMF to rocket 4.5 % higher yesterday.
A reduction from $ 60 billion to $ 30 billion per month was scheduled for the start of 2018, but the dovish tone of ECB President Mario Draghi's accompanying comments — emphasizing that the QE program could be extended beyond September 2018, and giving no indication of an end date — came as something of a surprise to market participants, sparking a
rally in eurozone
bonds and a moderate selloff
in the euro.
-- AWOCS Treasury 30 - Year
Rally Ebbs
in June Before $ 13 Billion
Bond Sale — Bloomberg -LSB-...]
In the early hours GLOBAL
BONDS had tried to stage a
rally from the previous days of endless selling.
Rates subsequently bear steepened as long - end led the weakness, but renewed decline
in risk sentiment managed to create a soft ceiling for
bond yields, and the rates market
rallied into the close.
The conditions have fueled a
rally in Portugal's sovereign
bonds so far this year, although they remain the second - highest yielding
bonds in the eurozone, behind those of Greece.
There are various ways to participate
in the Junk
Bond rally that is just underway - from purchasing individual corporate
bonds to diversifying risk with double - digit yielding
Bond ETFs, Mutual Funds and individual corporate paper.
The narrative of higher rates being a headwind for gold seems to be falling apart, as the 10 year yield
in the US seems to be on an upswing, and gold is
rallying at the same time that
bond values fall.
Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Austria just aren't big enough to absorb it all, so much of that hot money is pouring into the U.S.. That,
in turn, is creating a bubble
in Treasury
bonds and a possibly unsupported stock market
rally.
Given that Treasury yields broke through levels that have been a fairly reliable barrier for several years now, it wouldn't be surprising to see
bonds stage a «relief
rally» here, but both yields and market action remain unfavorable overall, holding the Strategic Total Return Fund to a roughly 2 - year duration, primarily
in Treasury inflation - protected securities.
Sentiment
in financial markets has continued to improve over the past three months, with
bond yields
in most major markets rising and equity markets
rallying further.
Is this what the failure of
bonds to meaningfully
rally in the face of recent Fed commentary back pedaling is really all about?
The recent oil price
rally has pushed the energy sector upward
in both the equity and
bond markets.
Bonds also contributed to Canadian pension plan asset growth, earning 3.1 per cent
in the quarter thanks to an early January
rally.