If you stretch your R500 000
bond term over a 30 year period, with the same prime interest rate, you will end up paying R1 013 537 in interest — more than double the capital of R500 000 initially borrowed.
Not exact matches
Wall Street has found a semblance of stability after a roller - coaster week, but some investors are convinced the rockiness in stocks and
bonds isn't quite
over for one main reason: The markets have yet to fully come to
terms with how aggressively the Federal Reserve may respond to surprising economic strength.
For, with long -
term taxable
bonds yielding 5 percent and long -
term tax - exempt
bonds 3 percent, a business operation that could utilize equity capital at 10 percent clearly was worth some premium to investors
over the equity capital employed.
Avoiding the downside in
bonds, avoiding the downside in sectors really leads to that consistent performance
over the long
term,» the fund's co-manager, Michael Collins, told «Power Lunch.»
Other funds pulling in money lately include the Vanguard Intermediate -
Term Corporate
Bond and SPDR Barclays Short
Term Corporate
Bond, both of which took in more than $ 300 million
over the past week.
Neither argument holds right now for holding any tactical cash, especially with no reasonable prospects for a near -
term rate increase and the yield differential offered by
bonds over cash right now.
US election + BREXIT = populist repudiation of era of inequality, globalization, wage deflation; cements BofAML themes of peak Liquidity, Inequality, Globalization + Main St
over Wall St. Electoral trends could mark secular low in long -
term bond yields (Chart 1).
Yes this is possible in any given year, but
over the longer
term bonds generally return close to their yields.
Over the long -
term the stock market has earned a better return than investing in
bonds.
Interest rate expectations are constantly changing
over the short -
term but
over longer periods
bond returns are more or less based on math.
But that relationship has been tested
over the life of this
bond bull market that saw double digit interest rates fall
over the past 30 + years, boosting the performance of long -
term bonds.
Long -
term bonds are up almost 9.5 % a year
over the past 30 years, an amazing run of performance (stocks are at 11.2 % annually).
Greek stocks and
bonds fell on Wednesday after Tsipras clashed with creditors
over the
terms attached to his country's bailout.
Treasury
bond rates remain the same
over the 30 - year
term of the
bond.
So while there could be one or even five year periods where longer maturity
bonds perform fairly well from these yield levels,
over the long -
term they're likely to be a poor investment in
terms of earning a decent return
over the rate of inflation.
This data goes through year - end 2013, when the risk premiums for stocks
over long -
term bonds in the most recent 10, 20 and 30 year periods were 1.5 %, 2.4 % and 1.8 %, respectively.
Although this rally can definitely continue
over the short -
term, I think
over the long -
term intermediate
bonds are probably a better bet for a lower risk portion of the portfolio.
What we have really seen
over the past several years, in
terms of the appreciation of markets and the decline of interest rates based on what the Fed has been doing, is a result which has eliminated the possibility of investors in
bonds and stocks to earn an adequate return relative to their expected liabilities.
A quick glance at the graph suggests that the wealth transfer from
bond to stock investors has declined
over the last 50 years and may now represent a much more modest premium for long -
term stock investors.
One is legitimate — every year in which short -
term interest rates are expected to be zero instead of say, a typical 4 %, should reasonably warrant a 4 % valuation premium in stocks and
bonds,
over and above run - of - the - mill historical norms (one can demonstrate this using any discounted cash flow approach).
Over the past year, the
bond yield curve has been positive but flattening (short -
term yields remained lower than long -
term yields, but the differential has narrowed).
Over the last twenty years, investors have witnessed a steady decline in the interest rate on investment grade
bonds, GICs and
term deposits.
Even in retirement, the potential return from stocks
over time is more likely to outpace inflation when compared to the long -
term returns from cash or
bonds, according to the Wells Fargo report.
And even if the indicator was valid (counterfactually), the article asks readers to accept as given that earnings are properly reported here, that they will grow by nearly 50 %
over the coming year, and that investors are willing to key the long -
term return they require from stocks to the yield on 10 - year
bonds, which has been abnormally depressed in a flight to safety.
But cash isn't such a bad thing in a rising rate environment as the yield pick up rather quickly on money market accounts or you can roll some of that
over into higher yielding short -
term bonds.
These investors may have to accept lower long -
term returns, as many
bonds — especially high - quality issues — generally don't offer returns as high as stocks
over the long
term.
Mr. Draghi said Thursday that the
bond buying would continue through September 2016 or «until we see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation which is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2 percent
over the medium
term.»
For instance, a portfolio with an allocation of 49 % domestic stocks, 21 % international stocks, 25 %
bonds, and 5 % short -
term investments would have generated average annual returns of almost 9 %
over the same period, albeit with a narrower range of extremes on the high and low end.
Over the long
term the nominal return on a duration - managed
bond portfolio (or
bond index — the duration on those doesn't change very much) converges on the starting yield.
FOMC members now seem more eager than ever to «normalize» policy, that is raise short
term rates into line with historic norms and, to the extent possible, unburden their balance sheet of the huge
bond holding they had acquired
over the last few years.
In a recent speech in Berlin, Carney argued that green finance «can not conceivably remain a niche interest
over the medium
term», adding that at the request of G20 leaders, ``... authorities are exploring ways to mobilize private capital for green investments... One proposal is international collaboration to facilitate cross-border investment in green
bonds.
Intermediate -
term bonds were up an average of more than 7 percent, earning a spread of more than 37 percent in outperformance
over stocks during a bear market.
The following table shows how intermediate -
term bonds performed
over these same bear markets:
While an aggressive type portfolio will naturally fluctuate
over time and has more «volatility,» this is nothing to get scared about because you are saving this money for the long
term and
over a 10 + year investing horizon you are going to make more money investing in stocks than in
bonds.
The idea is that you want to hold enough stocks to earn the returns you'll need to grow your nest egg
over the long -
term, but also enough in
bonds to provide some downside protection so you don't bail out of equities in a severe downturn.
Higher crude US: CLK8 and commodity prices CRB, +0.42 % have been the principal driver of the short -
term jump in the 10 - year break - even rate, the
bond market's assessment for inflation
over the next 10 years, to 2.18 %.
We expect long -
term bond yields to rise gradually
over the next five years but to stay well below historical averages.
over the very long
term, stocks have outperformed
bonds by a significant margin.
And as longer -
term graphs show (such as the one all the way at the start of this article), at most times, stocks have handily out - performed
bonds over wide ranges of inflation conditions and rates of fluctuation.
We can further confirm the conclusion of «stocks
over bonds» for investing in most inflation periods by looking at the real returns of long -
term treasury
bonds versus the total U.S. stock market starting at the unprecedented and long - lived
bond bull market starting in 1982.
In short, investors have gained about a 5 % annualized excess return
over the long
term by investing in stocks rather than bills or
bonds.
The euro may be languishing now, but it could well rebound substantially
over the course of a typical five - or seven - year corporate
bond term, especially against emerging markets currencies that are on slippery footing themselves.
The way to make money in high yield
bonds over the long
term is to try to avoid as many of the eventual defaults as possible.
«Yield spreads
over developed market
bonds are reasonable, and the opportunities for adding value are more extensive, although emerging market currencies may need to weaken further in the short
term.»
Do they not recognize that the absence of yield on short -
term money is exactly why stocks and
bonds are now also priced to deliver next to nothing
over the coming 10 - 12 years?
@ agranny — short
term gov
bonds will do OK against inflation
over time because you can reinvest maturing
bonds relatively quickly at higher interest rates.
Still, there is emphatically no investment merit in long -
term bonds, in the sense that by definition, a long -
term investment in 10 - year Treasury securities will lock in a total return of less than 3.4 %
over the coming decade.
However, assuming rates do rise
over the intermediate to long -
term, there can be tremendous opportunity cost in owning
bonds with low coupons and lengthy maturity.
In contrast, medium -
term inflation expectations implied by financial market prices, which are calculated as the difference between nominal and indexed
bond yields, have been broadly stable at around 2.6 per cent
over the past nine months.
Long -
term corporate
bonds, those issued by some of the most stable companies, have provided a 7.4 % return annually
over the last decade.