Not exact matches
More broadly, the regulatory agencies in the United States and the Financial Stability Board internationally have work under way focusing on possible fire - sale risk associated with the growing share of less liquid
bonds held in asset management portfolios on behalf of investors who may be counting on same - day redemption when
valuations fall.
For some time we have believed that businesses with a narrower range of outcomes, or stable businesses, have been bid - up as
bond substitutes, while businesses with a more cyclical profile have
fallen to more attractive
valuation levels.
From 1962 to 2015, the «true» average excess return — which excludes the impact of
valuations on the returns of stocks and adjusts for the return impact of interest rate movements on
bonds —
fell from 2.8 % to 0.8 % on a rolling 15 - year basis.10 The corresponding 15 - year win rate was halved from 82 % to 43 %, odds not even as good as a coin toss!
When this happens (all business cycles eventually do come to an end) we'll be left with double
valuation headwinds:
falling earnings forcing high
valuation multiples higher and higher stock /
bond relative PE ratios.