So, another way to decide when to switch to
bonds as ballast might be when the current bond yield is a percentage point or two above the current and expected rate of inflation.
When intermediate bonds yields become measurably better than cash, say about 4 %, it is probably time to reconsider using
bonds as ballast instead of cash.
Bonds as ballast — Let's examine the conventional wisdom by first looking at the historical ballast performance of bonds using FIRECalc again.
Not exact matches
Specifically, longer - duration
bonds are reasserting their role
as an effective
ballast to equity risk and can be especially helpful in equity - centric portfolios.
Our
bonds and low cost index funds act
as a
ballast for our portfolio.
However,
as I write in my new weekly commentary, «With Stocks on Shaky Ground, a Promising
Ballast in
Bonds,» this trend can only take the market so far.
It should be noted that during a major bear market or correction
bond funds, especially, short term
bond funds, are the
ballast in your account and either stay the course or recover much quicker than the broader market
as a whole.
OTTAWA —
Bonds have long been the safe and steady
ballast of an investment portfolio, but
as interest rates appear set to rise, investment advisers say there are risks ahead.
With interest rates finally on an expected path toward normalization, at least in the U.S.,
bonds may be less reliable
as ballast.
Bonds, or fixed income, essentially play two roles in a portfolio: They offer yield, or income,
as well
as potential diversification benefits
as a sort of
ballast to counter equity risks.
Specifically, longer - duration
bonds are reasserting their role
as an effective
ballast to equity risk and can be especially helpful in equity - centric portfolios.
At the same time,
bonds still perform a similar
ballast function
as cash.
As interest rates rise, intermediate duration
bonds are expected to slowly return to their proper place in the mid-term bucket, but for right now, an equally good choice for «safe»
ballast in the mid-term bucket is cash.
However, to select a percentage of
bonds within this range we must also factor in the amount of
ballast held
as cash in the short - term bucket.
We saw in Article 7.3 that small amounts of cash can provide very stable portfolio
ballast as compared to larger amounts of
bonds.
But there are times, like right now, where cash is nearly
as good
as bonds, and can be used just
as effectively
as bonds for the short - term
ballast portion of your portfolio.
But there are times, like right now, where cash is nearly
as good
as bonds, and can be used just
as effectively
as bonds for the short - term
ballast portion of your portfolio (
as discussed more in Articles 7.3 and 8.3).
So while the stock portion of your portfolio is getting hammered —
as has been the case already several times this year year —
bonds are able to provide a bit of
ballast.
The approach of using cash for
ballast now and
bonds for
ballast when interest rates rise, does not completely address the advantages of cash
as a reserve for short term expenditures and investment opportunities.
In Article 7.3, we found that the normal advantage of
bonds over cash
as ballast in a mixed portfolio with stocks is currently absent, because
bonds are not expected to provide a real return above inflation anytime in the foreseeable future.
With cash
as ballast, the above graph shows the ride along the way is much less bumpy than using 100 % stocks and not too different than using larger amounts of
bond ballast.
The end result using less cash
ballast is nearly the same
as using larger amounts of intermediate term
bond ballast.
The stabilization provided by
bonds is often referred to
as the «
ballast» function in a mixed portfolio.
Going a step further, you can approximate the effect of
bond ballast using smaller amounts of cash
as ballast instead.
Cash can serve
as portfolio stabilizer just like
bonds, and because cash is so stable, you can use less cash
as ballast and achieve the same outcome
as more
bond ballast in a mixed portfolio.
As you would expect, over the long term the
bond ballast (Portfolio 3) does better than the cash
ballast (Portfolio 2).