In Article 7.3, we found that the normal advantage of
bonds over cash as ballast in a mixed portfolio with stocks is currently absent, because bonds are not expected to provide a real return above inflation anytime in the foreseeable future.
Neither argument holds right now for holding any tactical cash, especially with no reasonable prospects for a near - term rate increase and the yield differential offered by
bonds over cash right now.
Not exact matches
When Alexandre Pestov, a strategic consultant and research associate at York University's Schulich School of Business, compared buying a two - bedroom Toronto condominium to renting it
over the past 25 years, he found that the renter ended up $ 600,000 richer than the owner if he invested the spare
cash in low - risk
bonds.
Traditionally, most elect the target - date investment fund, which is a mutual fund that will return your various assets (stocks,
bonds, and
cash) at a fixed retirement date — depending on how well the market performs
over time.
While stocks are riskier than
bonds or
cash investments, they have much higher returns
over the long run and many issue dividends on top of this.
One is legitimate — every year in which short - term interest rates are expected to be zero instead of say, a typical 4 %, should reasonably warrant a 4 % valuation premium in stocks and
bonds,
over and above run - of - the - mill historical norms (one can demonstrate this using any discounted
cash flow approach).
The after - tax proceeds from those sources would be worth $ 547 million if he invested the money in a blend of stocks,
bonds, hedge funds, commodities and
cash, assuming a weighted average annual return of 7 percent
over the past 15 years, according to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
Even in retirement, the potential return from stocks
over time is more likely to outpace inflation when compared to the long - term returns from
cash or
bonds, according to the Wells Fargo report.
But
cash isn't such a bad thing in a rising rate environment as the yield pick up rather quickly on money market accounts or you can roll some of that
over into higher yielding short - term
bonds.
I'd recommend at least a small allocation to
bonds or
cash in the event that an unexpected expense comes up that
over and above the dividend yield (although you could always create your own dividend by selling shares too).
Unconstrained
bond funds have been known to move very quickly in and out of certain credits, even holding
over 50 %
cash at times.
Over recent years, more and more plans are offering a suite of low - cost index funds covering domestic equities, foreign equities, U.S. taxable
bonds, and
cash.
Matt's expected
cash flows appear to decrease
over time, as successive rungs of
bonds mature, but he may be able to extend that income by reinvesting the returned principal each time one of the
bonds matures.
The
cash yield on the iShares CDN REIT Sector ETF (TSX: XRE) is approximately 5.45 %, a spread of less than 2 %
over the 10 - year Government of Canada
bond, which is currently yielding 3.55 %.
I've run a 20 - year
cash flow analysis, assuming the
bonds would all be sold at par value and rolled
over into new 8 - year
bonds having the same price and yield characteristics as the initial 8 - year set.
Bonds and
cash were always a lousy long - term investment versus equities
over many decades, but
over shorter timescales the apparent return differences didn't seem so vast as they do today.
The more pronounced movements in longer - term
bond yields saw the spread between the yield on 10 - year
bonds and the
cash rate rise in net terms
over recent months to around 65 basis points.
But
cash has beaten both
bonds and stocks
over a decade several times, most recently in the stagflationary 10 years up to 1982.
Stocks have historically outperformed
bonds and
cash over the long term.
Apple has already done a $ 17 billion
bond offering (the company decided to borrow the money rather than pay the hefty U.S. taxes required to bring some offshore
cash back home) in order to raise funds for a planned $ 60 billion share repurchase
over three years.
Over time the funds typically decrease holding of stocks in favor of less volatile investments such as
bonds, inflation - protected securities and the least volatile of them all —
cash.
But if you need the «cushion» of a sizable
bond /
cash portion to handle market turbulence, then your own index portfolio will lag the equity index performance
over long term.
We don't expect a portfolio mix of stocks,
bonds and
cash to achieve any meaningful return
over the coming 8 - year period.
However,
over a three - decade horizon, the difference in returns between a
cash - dominated portfolio versus a balanced portfolio of stocks and
bonds can be extremely large.
An alternative, and perhaps more likely, interpretation is that the market expects that the target
cash rate will remain below its average
over recent years for some time, and this expectation is reflected in
bond yields.
We remain overweight equities
over both 3 and 12 months and balance this with an underweight in
cash over 3 months and an underweight in commodities and government
bonds over 12 months.
The fall in
bond yields
over the past year, combined with an unchanged target
cash rate, has seen a flattening of the yield curve.
The spread between 10 - year
bond yields and the
cash rate is currently around 45 basis points, compared with more than 100 basis points on average
over the past decade (see the chapter on «Assessment of Financial Conditions»).
With the
cash rate up by 50 basis points in late 2003 and yields on 10 - year
bonds down a little
over recent months, the spread has narrowed since early November to stand at around 50 basis points (Graph 67).
To compensate for the difference, the
bond should offer an excess return
over cash.
If you're looking to generate long term wealth, you invest in stocks and if you need guaranteed
cash over a specific time frame you invest in
bonds.
However,
over a three - decade horizon, the difference in returns between a
cash - dominated portfolio versus a balanced portfolio of stocks and
bonds can be extremely large.
As far as
cash,
bond and stock returns go, they averaged very very roughly about 3 %, 6 % and 8 %
over the last 20 years.
And since a more conservative stocks -
bonds mix can reduce your potential for long - term gains, putting more of your nest egg into
bonds or
cash could mean that you'll end up with less spending
cash over the course or retirement, or that you'll run through your savings more quickly.
Experiment with the ASSET MIX and TIME FRAME sliders under the chart to vary the blend of stocks,
bonds and
cash over different time periods.
There are well
over a thousand mutual funds to choose from and they represent a full range of industries and companies, from value or growth stocks, small cap or large cap companies, to domestic or emerging markets, to
bonds and various
cash equivalents.
If I maintain this level of monthly contribution, which I think I will unless somethings extraordinary happens, and my goal is to have, for example, half a million dollars in this portfolio by the time I retire, can I reach my goal if I keep the allocation intact, which overwhelmingly favors stocks
over bonds (43 % in foreign stock, 42 % in domestic stock, 9 % in
cash and 6 % in
bond)?
Thus, your natural mix is 60 % stocks, 30 %
bonds and 10 %
cash, and you believe (using whatever market timing metric you choose) that stocks are
over priced, you would lower your allocation to stocks and increase your allocation to either
bonds or
cash.
Over the next 12 months,
cash flows from coupon payments and the sale of
bonds are reinvested at the new higher rates.
As my Canadian MoneySaver article explains in detail, if
bond returns
over the next three years turn out to be similar to those in our simulation, XBB would still outperform both XSB and
cash during the full six - year period beginning in 2009.
The research looked into the performance of a multitude of American corporate pension plans and showed that investment policy — the strategic mix of stocks,
bonds, and
cash — explains
over 90 % of a portfolio's variance (or risk).
A large portion of your premiums payments will be invested in the insurance company's investment fund in whatever asset class you prefer (stocks,
bonds, mutual funds, money market funds, etc.)
Over time, this has the chance to generate a much larger
cash value in your insurance account than a traditional whole life policy does.
Cash in a bank account earns nothing, stocks can be too volatile
over short periods of time and individual
bonds can require large minimum investments.
Over the (very) long run, equities out - perform
bonds and
cash, as is evident below, but may not be practical alternative to
bonds for many investors, because of investment horizon, risk - tolerance, dependence on yield, or all the above.
High Yield
bonds have a slight advantage
over cash and «Economic Stress», in the form of GLD and TLT, is lagging
cash by a significant margin.
I bet somewhere there is a study where way more than 24 % of people chose, for example, a savings
bond worth $ 90
over $ 100 in
cash as a possible raffle prize.
Based on that,
over 33 % of the portfolio would be in
bonds and
cash.
Over time, a broadly diversified index of US investment - grade
bonds has produced positive returns (after accounting for inflation) far more frequently than
cash (see the chart below).
The
cash yield on the iShares CDN REIT Sector ETF (TSX: XRE) is approximately 5.45 %, a spread of less than 2 %
over the 10 - year Government of Canada
bond, which is currently yielding 3.55 %.
The supporting rationale is that the moderately greater return of
bonds as compared to
cash helps minimize the impact of inflation, which starts to cause a more noticeable erosion of your portfolio's real value when compounded
over more than a few years.