In 2008, for example, when United States stocks fell 37 percent, high - quality core
bonds rallied more than 5 percent.
Not exact matches
To maintain the balance of their portfolios, pension fund managers have been selling equities and buying
more bonds, and their notable demand for the latter counters the popular narrative that the 35 - year
rally in fixed income is over.
From a «consensual positioning» perspective which touches on this current «mean - reversion dynamic in the marketplace: say this big
bond rally were to gather steam into a much
more punishing squeeze of the «all - time» UST short base (largely due to the previously mentioned lack of «tolerance» for beginning of year performance pain).
So when do
bonds rally strongly during equity bear markets, and when do they post
more modest gains?
Bonds rallying hard along with equities as the flight to safety pushes sovereign debt «
more» negative.
So as the threat of AUSTERITY diminishes, the
more a nation's
bonds rally.
Specifically, with
bonds and equities
more correlated today than in the past, investors must not assume that rates always
rally when risk assets suffer.
Stocks will
rally;
bond may
rally more, because the threat of bankruptcy is lifted.
With this most recent
rally, you would have gained much
more had I invested you exclusively in very long term
bonds — long term U.S.
bond funds are up about 13 % YTD!
Which is a terrifying reminder of the underlying economic reality since then — in the absence of trillions of monetary (& fiscal) stimulus, and the
bond & equity market
rallies they've induced, quite obviously something
more like (or even worse than) Japan's lost decade (or two) would otherwise have been on the cards (& might still be)...
There was a chance if the credit markets
rallied that the
bonds might be worth something, but the odds were remote — it would mean no
more defaults, and in late 2008 with a lot of junior debt financial exposure, that wasn't likely.
No panic in investment grade
bonds, and the losses of the stock market have been minor over that time, leaving aside the fact that the market
rallied for a few
more weeks after high yield began to slide.