Canadian stocks returned about 17 % but
bonds returned just 3 %.
And during the 1973 - 1974 equity bear market — where stock indexes dropped by half —
bonds returned just 5 percent, compared with gains of 36 percent during the 2000 - 2002 bear market, which experienced a simliarly - sized decline.
Not exact matches
Since those investors are
just looking for the highest
returns, and not say buying
bonds their financial advisor told them they needed
bonds as part of their retirement planning, they are more likely to jump when rates rise.
On the other end of the investing spectrum, the average annual
returns on
bonds since 1926 was
just 5.5 percent on average, with a 32.6 percent gain in the best year and an 8.1 percent loss in the worst, according to Vanguard data.
I'm actively looking at my debt and determining if it makes more sense to pay down mortgages (locking in a guaranteed ~ 4 %
return) or investing in
bonds (~ 1 %
returns if held to maturity) or stocks (uncertain, but I
just wrote an article about the current PE ratio and the inevitable reversion to the mean and I believe we are likely headed for 10 years of low single digit
returns).
But at lower
bond returns, the stock loss is still cushioned,
just to a lesser degree (from -18.6 % to -20.4 %).
It's not
just that future
returns will be lower from current interest rate levels than they've been in the past; it's that volatility in
bonds will be much higher from -LSB-...]
If five years from now the yield simply
returned to its level of a decade ago (and
just in case you think I'm cherry picking, over the past 25 years it has averaged a 7.5 % yield and at the low in 1981 was twice that),
bond investors would suffer a meaningful loss of capital.
You get all of your interest (TAX FREE) and the principle
returned at maturity (unless you buy Zero - Coupon
Bonds that
just grow until maturity).
The
bond maturity premium over bills was
just 0.7 % in the U.S. and 0.5 % worldwide, small with respect to the much higher risk (variability of
returns).
Since 1900 stocks
returned 6.5 % annualized after inflation,
bonds 2 % and cash — using T - bills as a proxy —
just 0.8 %, according to London Business School academics Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton in research forCredit Suisse.
Just to follow up my comments on
bonds above, Rick Ferri has posted a useful piece showing how the «obvious» move to stay away from anything other than short - term
bonds has hit a US investor's
returns in the past few years:
Even though the yield - to - maturity for the remaining life of the
bond is
just 7 %, and the yield - to - maturity you bargained for when you bought the
bond was only 10 %, the
return you have earned over the first 10 years is an impressive 16.26 %!
In
just one quarter the S&P 500
returned more than a seven - year U.S. government
bond would have
returned over its entire lifetime.
Short term interest rates remain near zero, 10 - year
bond yields have declined below 2 %, and our estimate of 10 - year S&P 500 total
returns has declined to
just 1.4 % (see Ockham's Razor and the Market Cycle for the arithmetic behind these historically - reliable estimates).
If I wanted more
return I would
just run out farther on the frontier optimizing with less
bonds.
I've used John Hussman's method of estimating expected
returns for stocks (using a simplified version the model that relies on
just the CAPE ratio) and the beginning
bond yield for the expected
return for the
bond portion of the portfolio.
Data for the ten years through 2013 shows that the average investor earned an annual
return of
just 2.6 % compared to a
return of 7.4 % for stocks and 4.6 % for
bonds.
So thank god
Bond returns from the dead at
just the right moment and is dispatched, injured and not quite up to snuff, to track the bad guy down.
Flesh and Blood: A man
just released from prison
returns home to his impoverished neighborhood in Philadelphia and attempts to rebuild his life and reintegrate into the community, but he struggles with staying sober, forging a
bond with his half - brother, and mending a strained relationship with his mother.
Even now, however, there is evidence of a
return to nostalgia —
just as Marvel's ever - expanding cinematic universe begins to court the more colourful aspects of its comic - book ancestry, Matthew Vaughn was all - too - happy to provide a similar tonic to a spy genre replete with Bournes and
Bonds in the form of last month's Kingsmen: The Secret Service.
Skyfall gloriously
returns James
Bond, and
just also happens to be one of the best films of this year.
Even with an increased curiosity about the new «Silent Hill» film and trying to make sense of whatever is going on with «Cloud Atlas» — which I'm starting to think is
just out there enough that I might really enjoy it — the next movie I'm most excited about is Daniel Craig's
return to James
Bond in «Skyfall» set to arrive in theaters on Nov. 9.
After Daniel Craig's first and highly successful step into the
Bond character in Casino Royale, it was
just a given that the actor would
return to play the masterful British secret service operative.
With the recent disappointing confirmation that Sam Mendes will not
return to helm
Bond 24 following SKYFALL, eyes now turn to
just who will...
Year - to - date, the S&P Eurozone Sovereign
Bond Index is
returning 2.44 %,
just about the 2.46 % it
returned for all of 2013.
Inverse
bond ETFs do not pay distributions: in a flat market they
just keep eroding your
returns.
To
return to our example, if the $ 1,000
bond yielded 2.5 % it would generate $ 25 in annual interest, resulting in a tax bill of
just $ 11.25.
And if you're willing to accept lower
returns in exchange for less risk, then you're better off
just adding more
bonds.
So they pay their
bonds off, and they pay them off on time... Maybe if you
just invested in Russia or Indonesia it would be dangerous, but it's spread over all these different countries, so you've got this great diversification, and you've got this income that rivals the
return of the stock market.
Once spreads get really wide, the cycle can resume when those with strong balance sheets can tuck
bonds away and realize a modest
return in the worst scenario, if they
just buy - and - hold.
As you can see in Steady as she goes above, the DEX Universe
Bond Index, which includes Canadian government and corporate
bonds, had
just two negative years in the last three decades (1994 and 1999), while averaging
returns of about 9.9 % a year.
After all, since that missive was released in March 2014, stocks have
returned nearly 60 %, while the broad taxable
bond market has
returned just a bit over 8 %.
Strategic Dividend Value is hedged at about half the value of its stock holdings, and Strategic Total
Return continues to hold a duration of
just over 3.5 years (meaning that a 100 basis point move in interest rates would be expected to impact Fund value by about 3.5 % on the basis of
bond price fluctuations), with less than 10 % of assets in precious metals shares, and about 5 % of assets in utility shares.
This applies to equity investments like stocks and ETFs, not
just fixed -
return, interest - paying investments like
bonds.
For example, a client who started the year with a simple 60/40 portfolio comprised of the $ 287 billion Vanguard Total Stock Market Fund (VTSMX) and the $ 247 billion Pimco Total
Return Fund (PTTAX), the two largest mutual funds in the world, would now have 66.3 % invested in stocks and
just 33.7 % invested in
bonds, pushing beyond the typical 5 % leeway most advisers give their asset allocation.
A brutal scenario (the yield on 10 - year
bonds rises steadily from
just under 3 % to 6 % or 7 %) would likely see modestly negative
returns over three to five years.
It is really important to remember that inflation protected
bonds have significantly lower
returns and one form of inflation protection is to
just have more money in the future.
You could shift more into
bonds to bring your portfolio closer to Buffett's
return, but this mix is still better than what you would get with
just stocks alone.
But no one can claim that stocks will
return 9 % and
bonds will get 5 % over the next 25 years
just because those are the historical averages.
But if the 4 %
bonds pay taxable interest and you hold them in a regular taxable account, you might be left with
just 3.12 % after paying taxes — which means paying down the mortgage will give you a better
return.
The
bond investment that was supposed to be a safe store of value gets cut by nearly 25 % if interest rates only
just return to normal in 5 years!
Just as a
bond's price can fluctuate, so can its yield — its overall percentage rate of
return on your investment at any given time.
The strategy of Strategic Total
Return has never relied much on the existence of a bull market in
bonds (indeed, our average
bond duration has rarely exceeded 4 years since the inception of the Fund, and has often been limited to
just 1 - 2 years).
Based on comparisons of absolute
return and Ulcer Index,
bonds returned more than 70 % of the gain with
just 10 % of the pain.
It is invested primarily in the credit market, not so much in government
bonds because government
bond yields are so low, but we're looking for absolute
returns even if interest rates go up, so some of the portfolio, a significant piece of it actually, is floating rate, so if interest rates go up, you
just get higher cash flows, which will support higher
returns, and the rest of the portfolio is in relatively short maturity
bonds, which will have some price volatility and if there's bad market conditions, will have temporary losses, so the goal is to offer something that is absolute
returns.
Pooled RESP growth comes from
just two sources — the investment
returns, which is principally from
bonds plus the extra boost from attrition offset by the fees in the plans.
If five years from now the yield simply
returned to its level of a decade ago (and
just in case you think I'm cherry picking, over the past 25 years it has averaged a 7.5 % yield and at the low in 1981 was twice that),
bond investors would suffer a meaningful loss of capital.
Andrew Hallam presents a nice argument (as do you) for viewing stocks as reserve funds to take advantage of a downturn rather than
just something you expect to
return the standard
bond return from.
There must be a way to see the Big Picture and lighten up on areas that are over-valued, but still enjoy an average
return at least approaching that of the market as a whole... I'd love to hear some simple strategies that require a little thought, and don't
just focus on keeping a lot of money in cash and short term
bonds.