I mistakenly said
the bonds would likely be unsecured; given that the committed bridge loan is going to be second - lien secured, I'd expect the bonds to be second - lien secured bonds as well.
Also, if they bought the wad, they would know that there were likely no more bonds on offer, the selling pressure would be gone, and
the bonds would likely trade up from there.
The far greater problem with this is that interest rates on
these bonds would likely be significantly higher due to the risk they could be made invalid as they weren't legally issued.
Not exact matches
Even if the president weathered the resulting political storm of overriding the legislative branch, investors
would likely shy away from any new
bonds issued under such a legal cloud.
If policymakers, however, resolve to
have no government involvement at all, the
bond market will price it out for you, but the
likely outcome is a residential mortgage market that is smaller, more expensive, and less liquid.
Sure, some of that
had to do with Goldman beating earnings expectations, passing its Fed stress test and unexpectedly making a killing trading
bonds, but the election
likely factored in too, and investors can thank Clinton for that.
NEW YORK, Jan 10 - Federal Reserve policymakers reacted coolly to a report on Wednesday that China could curb its massive U.S. debt purchases, pointing out that such rebalancing by countries can be healthy and
would not
likely disrupt the U.S. central bank's plan to trim its own
bond portfolio.
The Armageddon default
would also
likely temporarily decouple trends in U.S. and Canadian
bond yields, which historically tend to move closely.
Though «the ECB
has been under - purchasing Portuguese
bonds,» he said, «it is
likely to be relatively less badly - affected by the end of quantitative easing than others, such as Italy.»
That
has Deutsche Bank wondering if there is
likely to be a wave of companies failing to pay interest on their
bonds.
You could say that 2018 is still a young year and it's way too early to judge things, which is true, but the level of volatility in both stocks and
bonds during February is making this year feel like we
've lived through two full years already, and I think what the markets are signaling is more
likely to be a sea change than a blip.
Daniel Hanson, an analyst for Height Securities, told Morning Consult that the current default
likely won't
have a major effect on the municipal
bond market because its effects were already «priced in» ahead of time.
Investors
have had a long time to digest the taper news: Their reaction to the Fed actually shrinking the size of its
bond purchases is
likely to be smaller than their reaction in anticipation of such a move.
The Fed
has put off plans to taper its
bond - buying for now, but will
likely do so in early 2014.
They
likely worried that rates
would rise even more, and jeopardize the economy, if they reduced the
bond - buying.
Progress in a few areas
has been solid: slashing of bureaucratic red tape
has led to a surge in new private businesses; full liberalization of interest rates seems
likely following the introduction of bank deposit insurance in May; Rmb 2 trillion (US$ 325 billion) of local government debt is being sensibly restructured into long - term
bonds; tighter environmental regulation and more stringent resource taxes
have contributed to a surprising two - year decline in China's consumption of coal.
In contrast,
bond market exposure (in the form of yield curve and spread risk)
has played a relatively minor role in driving convertible
bond risk and return in the recent past and seems
likely to play a minor role in the year ahead, based on our model.
As long as the BoC remains reluctant to raise rates, history
would suggest that the correlation between stocks and
bonds is
likely to remain negative.
Meanwhile,
bond investors should brace for a flattening Treasury curve, with 10 - year rates
likely to tick higher, while the 30 - year rate dips to 2 % late in 2018, which
would be its lowest level since the financial crisis.
While she expected that
bond yields might not fall too much near term as managers
would need to allocate some funds to cash
bonds, swaps and futures
would likely remain under pressure.
I no longer
have any discounted
bonds in the portfolio that are
likely to be «money good».
That said, redemptions were moderate during the first two weeks of June and even slowed for the week ending June 19 — the day that Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke held a press conference and announced that the Fed
would likely begin backing away from its
bond - buying program by the end of the year.
The impact on asset prices from such a shift in policy gears in the Eurozone
would likely dwarf any negative
bond price effects.
Summers
would take over the Fed in February, and Bernanke himself
has said the
bond programs, known as quantitative easing, are
likely to end by mid-2014.
The biggest reason for lower 60/40 portfolio returns from here
would likely be a combination of lower stock and
bond returns.
Volatility
has risen recently for both stocks and
bonds, and the rocky road is
likely to continue.
Under this scenario stock -
bond correlations are
likely to be higher than the consistently negative levels that
have defined the post-crisis environment (see the chart below).
I certainly wouldn't expect market returns (5 %
bonds, 8 % stocks) but something north of 2 % is
likely over 10-15-20 + years.
Bond yields
have likely bottomed out, and we don't see scope for big rises in already elevated stock market valuations amid tepid earnings growth.
If the government did stop paying interest on its outstanding
bonds, those
bonds would most
likely become less attractive.
While he thinks stocks are still the place to be, Johnson believes we
have likely entered a bear market in
bonds.
Our Investment Strategy Report published on March 19 compared equity and
bond yields over multiple business cycles and found that the 10 - year Treasury yield might
have to sustain levels exceeding 3.5 % (far above what we believe is
likely this year) before compelling a year - end 2018 S&P 500 Index target range below our current year - end target of 2800 - 2900.2
They are also less
likely to
have call protection, which means that if a company's financial condition or credit rating improves, the issuer can call its outstanding
bonds and take advantage of lower funding rates.
But since preferreds also
have common stock characteristics, the negative impact of rising interest rates is
likely to be somewhat subdued relative to the impact on
bonds.
In Australia, for example, several foreign banks
have ceased their market - making in corporate
bond and derivatives markets in recent years and
have drawn down their inventories.7 In core markets, such as domestic sovereign
bonds, domestic dealers are
likely to pick up at least part of the slack.
In turn, the hedge fund pushed riskier
bonds that
would make the investment more
likely to fail.
Lower taxes
would likely lead to larger deficits, which could require the Treasury to issue more debt, increasing the supply of government
bonds on the market.
Given the above, it is reasonable to argue that even a small scale volatility shock
would likely induce heightened market reaction, even if the event merely reverses some of the term premium compression in the sovereign
bond markets.
The yield on the 10 - year Treasury
bond climbed above 3 % for the first time since 2014, but of greater concern to many market participants were remarks in major corporate earnings reports suggesting that business conditions
had likely hit their peak and were poised to deteriorate going forward.
The same is
likely to hold true in the
bond market, but again, we
have the flexibility to vary our investment exposures in response to market fluctuations, which I
would expect to be helpful.
I personally believe that the above are good enough reasons to add pressure to Treasuries, but if we want more food for thought, we can not forget that China is the largest holder of US government
bonds after the Fed and if the rhetoric around a trade war escalates we can assume that this point
would most
likely be touched by Chinese counterparties.
If the Dollar broke lower, its
likely too that
bonds and duration
would rally; defensives (staples, utes, reits) and growth (tech / biotech / discret) squeeze against crowded value unwinding (fins, energy, indus); yen and euro
would squeeze mightily; gold squeezes while copper pukes in a favorite commodities «pair» unwind; HY could reverse weaker vs IG (currently everybody long CCC vs BB on the high beta trade)... this
would be the theoretical path to our next pain - trade or even VaR shock.
But a deeper decline in Italy's economy this year that pushed debt to GDP ratios materially higher
would likely catch
bond investors» attention, and then ultimately the attention of global stock investors.
Open Europe, a Brussels - based think tank, estimates that through government
bond purchases and liquidity provisions to banks, the ECB's exposure to Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain
has reached 705 billion euros, up from 444 billion euros in early summer - a 50 percent increase in six months (their note was published prior to the December 21 three - year LTRO, which
likely further boosted lower quality collateral).
Because the level is so critical and the base is so big, a break in the long -
bond yield above 3.22 %
likely would lead to a big move up in yields.
Having stocks,
bonds and gold rise in tandem is
likely a short term phenomenon since these asset prices usually move in different directions.
With correlations
having become positive, the rise in
bond yields
likely will lead to a decline in stocks.
They
likely have room to up allocations: $ 71 billion
has left Asia ex-Japan
bonds and stocks since the mid-2013 «taper tantrum» set off by the Federal Reserve (Fed) signaling an end to
bond purchases, according to EPFR Global data.
As investor anxiety
has shifted from growth and geopolitical shocks to the Fed, the correlation between stocks and
bonds has started to rise, and it's
likely to continue rising as a Fed rate hike nears.
Emerging market
bonds in their own currencies
have a similar justification to emerging market equities, especially since the currency depreciation against the dollar is
likely to slow or stop altogether.