If market yields rise even modestly, it is going to crush
the book values of the mortgage REITs» long - duration mortgages.
Not exact matches
Under Uber's lease arrangements, drivers» leases can run far above the actual Blue
Book value of the car, not unlike how homeowners were left underwater when housing prices plummeted and their
mortgages far exceeded their homes»
value.
Mr. Tilson has co-authored two
books, The Art
of Value Investing: How the World's Best Investors Beat the Market (2013) and More
Mortgage Meltdown: 6 Ways to Profit in These Bad Times (2009), was one
of the authors
of Poor Charlie's Almanack (2005), the definitive
book on Berkshire Hathaway Vice Chairman Charlie Munger, and has written for Forbes, the Financial Times, Kiplinger's, the Motley Fool andTheStreet.com.
* Change in operating cash flow is replaced with: (i) tangible
book value per share growth for companies in the Banks, Diversified Financials and Insurance sectors; and (ii) growth in funds from operations for REITs, with the exception
of Mortgage and Specialized REITs.
As with our pay - for - performance model, operating cash flow is replaced with: (i) tangible
book value for companies in the Banks, Diversified Financials and Insurance sectors; and (ii) funds from operations for REITs, with the exception
of Mortgage and Specialized REITs.
Luckily,
mortgage REITs have most recently traded within a tight band
of their
book value.
Rising bond yields have wrecked the
book value of the REITs»
mortgage holdings and have prompted investors to dump the securities en masse.
Its exposure to retail,
mortgage financing and various other sectors (adding up to almost half the portfolio) combined with the fact that even its home builders are not the cheapest ones out there, mean that if you want to take advantage
of the discount to
book values that are out there, the best strategy is to buy the individual securities yourself!
While other
mortgage REITs like Annaly Capital Management (NYSE: NLY) or American Capital Agency (NASDAQ: AGNC) managed to increase their
book values in the first quarter
of 2014, ARMOUR Residential continued to lose ground.
Psychological effects
of book value growth Many
mortgage REITs posted a return to positive
book value growth in the first quarter
of 2014 after declines throughout 2013 and investors were throwing away their shares in
mortgage REITs in panic mode.
A sequential increase in
book value certainly can be seen as a huge confidence boost and indicate that the worst is over for
mortgage REITs in terms
of the bleeding.
In July 2002, the San Mateo, California - based Bay View Capital Corporation announced the pending sale
of the
mortgage loan portfolio for its Bay View Bank subsidiary to Washington Mutual for a «slight premium to
book value».
With two
of the largest
mortgage REITs in the sector reversing their
book value growth trends, it increasingly looks as if select
mortgage investment companies could be interesting income plays in the years ahead.
Investor sentiment toward
mortgage REITs has been improving lately as other companies in the sector also posted a return to positive
book value growth in the first quarter
of 2014.
It's a
mortgage insurance firm that trades at only 7 times earnings and 84 %
of book value due to worries about excesses in the Canadian real estate market.
Since
mortgage REITs are really just a portfolio
of leveraged debt investments,
book value is everything.
Many
of the top
Mortgage REITs, like Annaly (NLY) and American Capital Agency (AGNC), are now trading below their
book values.