It's no secret that railroads have benefited from
the boom in commodity prices and shipments over the last decade.
Almost all investing books have a «good story» (like the book on commodities investing you mention on pg 29 - 30 which puts forward the idea that developing nations would lead to
a boom in commodity prices).
But we were also fortunate in Australia that
the boom in commodity prices and substantial rise in the terms of trade through the 2000s produced a very favourable economic environment at a time when many of the major economies moved into recession.
Although the adjustment has been difficult, it has occurred over a longer period of time than
the boom in commodity prices and, in general, Canada has not lost ground relative to other advanced economies.
The adjustment process through the current episode has also been helped by inflation expectations remaining well anchored, combined with greater flexibility in the labour market, relative to earlier
booms in commodity prices.
Not exact matches
Commodity prices hit their post-crisis peak
in early 2011 and have generally been sliding since then — they're now all the way to where they were
in 1999, before the 2000s
commodities boom began.
A year - long construction
boom has helped boost
prices for building materials and resources from steel and copper to iron ore, helping to create a reflationary pulse worldwide
in commodities markets and manufacturing.
Most notable so far has been the
boom in the resource sector, with
commodity prices and hence Australia's terms of trade rising to historically high levels over a number of years.
While a number of simple measures of valuation have also been useful over the years, even metrics such as
price - to - peak earnings have been skewed by the unusual profit margins we observed at the 2007 peak, which were about 50 % above the historical norm - reflecting the combination of
booming and highly leveraged financial sector profits as well as wide margins
in cyclical and
commodity - oriented industries.
The terms of trade
boom was driven by very large increases
in the
prices of some of Australia's
commodity exports.
Compared with previous episodes of
booming commodity prices, a floating currency, a sound but flexible medium - term framework for monetary policy and a flexible labour market mean we are doing much better this time than
in the mid 1970s or early 1950s.
Future
commodity price levels might certainly be different, on average,
in the future than they were
in the past, but we should not jump to the conclusion that the long - term
boom - bust dynamics of
commodities have vanished as a result.
Today, Russia is similarly hemorrhaging capital as a result of international sanctions and crashing oil
prices, prompted by both the American shale oil
boom and OPEC's inaction
in stabilizing the
commodity at last month's meeting.
China's
boom fed a surge
in commodities prices, but its industrial - and construction - based economy is changing and it is seeking to foster more growth
in domestic consumption.
Anybody who's been
in the business for 20 years will understand this
boom and bust nature; first of all —
commodity prices and then, the
prices of equities that are tied to
commodities.
A
boom in natural gas drilling
in the U.S. has caused
prices of that
commodity to fall precipitously
in recent years.
On the other side of the ledger, however, lower
commodity prices are also helping to take the wind out of the sails of the Canadian dollar, which offers a potentially game - changing opportunity to sectors that have long suffered
in the shadow of the resource
boom.
This was not the case
in earlier
commodity price booms (Battellino 2010).
There has been considerably less adjustment of interest rates
in the current episode, however, relative to earlier
commodity price booms; for example, the energy
boom in the late 1970s / early 1980s, which was smaller than the current resource
boom.
Despite a fall
in commodity prices and an end to the mining
boom, the Aussie has stayed above parity with the American greenback since the end of June.
Lying on the edge of the Amazon rainforest, the one - time backwater was transformed by an economic
boom as the winding down of the conflict and a spike
in commodity prices drew oil companies and multinational agricultural interests to areas that were previously off limits.
The Ghanaian economy is built largely on the back of
commodity exports, which saw a
boom through 2011, but has tracked the fall
in commodity prices.
First, corporate profits are
booming because of declining
commodity prices and a weak jobs market that has driven down the cost of labour (the share of U.S. GDP going to labour income is at its lowest level
in 50 years).
He added of 2015 - 16: «On the one hand we had an M&A
boom in developed markets during calendar 2015, while on the other hand clients also had to contend with a slowdown
in China, the collapse of oil and
commodity prices and rising uncertainty over the UK's referendum on whether to leave the European Union.»